Calibration analysis
ACCURACY BY CONFIDENCE GRADE
Higher-confidence grades should become more accurate as sample size increases.
| Grade | Sample | Avg projected | Avg actual | MAE | Bias | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A+ | 127 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 1.86 | -0.02 | Average |
| A | 144 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 1.95 | -0.41 | Average |
| B+ | 206 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 1.88 | -0.03 | Average |
| B | 21 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.73 | -0.66 | Strong |
| D | 2 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 2.40 | +1.65 | Needs work |
MAE should generally decrease as confidence rises from D toward A+. Persistent grade inversion may indicate that confidence thresholds need recalibration.
Latest outcomes
RECENT RESULTS
The 30 most recently resolved pitcher projections.
| Date | Pitcher | Grade | Projected | Actual | Difference | Error band | Line | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 |  Jacob Misiorowski | A+ | 5.1 | 3 | -2.1 | Missed 2+ | U 6.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-10-23 |  Nick Martinez | B | 2.3 | 5 | +2.7 | Missed 2+ | U 3.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-10-19 |  Freddy Peralta | B | 4.21 | 3 | -1.2 | Within 2 | U 4.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-10-19 |  Shawn Armstrong | B | 0.2 | 0 | -0.2 | Within 1 | U 0.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-10-18 |  Drew Rasmussen | A | 5.37 | 6 | +0.6 | Within 1 | U 5.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-10-18 |  Parker Messick | B | 4.85 | 3 | -1.8 | Within 2 | O 4.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-10-17 | Shawn Armstrong | A | 1 | 1 | 0 | Within 1 | O 0.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-10-17 | Nick Martinez | B | 2.4 | 3 | +0.6 | Within 1 | U 2.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-10-16 | Shawn Armstrong | A | 1.5 | 0 | -1.5 | Within 2 | 1.5Underdog Fantasy | -- |
| 2026-10-15 |  Gavin Williams | A+ | 7.13 | 9 | +1.9 | Within 2 | O 6.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-10-15 |  Griffin Jax | B+ | 4.56 | 2 | -2.6 | Missed 2+ | O 3.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-10-15 |  Shane Drohan | B | 4.31 | 1 | -3.3 | Missed 2+ | O 2.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-10-15 |  Tyler Glasnow | A+ | 6.63 | 6 | -0.6 | Within 1 | O 5.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-10-14 |  Robert Gasser | B | 4.58 | 3 | -1.6 | Within 2 | O 3.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-10-14 |  Blake Snell | B+ | 5.8 | 9 | +3.2 | Missed 2+ | U 6.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-10-13 | Freddy Peralta | B | 4.05 | 6 | +2 | Within 2 | O 3.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-10-13 | Parker Messick | B | 4.85 | 3 | -1.8 | Within 2 | O 4.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-10-12 |  Logan Henderson | B | 5.38 | 2 | -3.4 | Missed 2+ | U 5.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-10-12 | Drew Rasmussen | A+ | 6.36 | 7 | +0.6 | Within 1 | O 5.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-10-12 |  Foster Griffin | B | 3.77 | 3 | -0.8 | Within 1 | O 3.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-10-12 |  Yoshinobu Yamamoto | A+ | 6.45 | 1 | -5.4 | Missed 2+ | U 6.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-10-11 | Jacob Misiorowski | A+ | 6.03 | 5 | -1 | Within 1 | U 7.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-10-11 |  Tarik Skubal | A+ | 5.79 | 7 | +1.2 | Within 2 | U 7.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-10-10 |  Sean Burke | B+ | 4.46 | 4 | -0.5 | Within 1 | O 3.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-10-10 | Gavin Williams | A+ | 7.35 | 12 | +4.7 | Missed 2+ | O 6.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-10-08 | Parker Messick | A+ | 6.15 | 5 | -1.2 | Within 2 | O 5.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-10-08 |  Hagen Smith | A | 2.7 | 0 | -2.7 | Missed 2+ | O 1.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-10-07 | Robert Gasser | B | 4.38 | 3 | -1.4 | Within 2 | O 2.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-10-07 |  Daniel Espino | A+ | 2.3 | 2 | -0.3 | Within 1 | -- | -- |
| 2026-10-07 |  Walker Buehler | B | 4.32 | 0 | -4.3 | Missed 2+ | O 2.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |