Model validation
BACKTESTING TERMINAL
Measure projection accuracy, model bias, confidence-grade performance, and recent resolved outcomes.
Resolved
302
MAE
1.88
Calibration
Average
Insights
Within 1 K
35.1%
Within 2 K
65.2%
Bias
+0.19
Bias reading
Model tends to project too low
Calibration analysis
ACCURACY BY CONFIDENCE GRADE
Higher-confidence grades should become more accurate as sample size increases.
| Grade | Sample | Avg projected | Avg actual | MAE | Bias | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A+ | 51 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 2.25 | -1.39 | Average |
| A | 70 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 1.85 | -0.37 | Average |
| B+ | 102 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 1.85 | +0.85 | Average |
| B | 73 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 1.68 | +0.82 | Strong |
| C | 6 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.30 | +1.30 | Needs work |
Swipe for more
MAE should generally decrease as confidence rises from D toward A+. Persistent grade inversion may indicate that confidence thresholds need recalibration.
Latest outcomes
RECENT RESULTS
The 30 most recently resolved pitcher projections.
| Date | Pitcher | Grade | Projected | Actual | Difference | Error band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 |  Kyle Freeland | B+ | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 | Within 1 |
| 2026-07-20 |  Andrew Alvarez | B+ | 3.1 | 2 | -1.1 | Within 2 |
| 2026-07-20 |  Trevor McDonald | B+ | 1.9 | 3 | +1.1 | Within 2 |
| 2026-07-20 |  Jack Flaherty | B+ | 5.7 | 4 | -1.7 | Within 2 |
| 2026-07-20 |  Ronel Blanco | A+ | 8.3 | 8 | -0.3 | Within 1 |
| 2026-07-20 |  Jacob deGrom | A+ | 9.4 | 6 | -3.4 | Missed 2+ |
| 2026-07-20 |  Ryan Weathers | A+ | 5.4 | 5 | -0.4 | Within 1 |
| 2026-07-20 |  Jameson Taillon | A | 3.7 | 6 | +2.3 | Missed 2+ |
| 2026-07-20 |  Michael Wacha | A | 4.9 | 5 | +0.1 | Within 1 |
| 2026-07-20 |  Freddy Peralta | A+ | 4 | 6 | +2 | Within 2 |
| 2026-07-20 |  Payton Tolle | A+ | 7.2 | 9 | +1.8 | Within 2 |
| 2026-07-20 |  Shane Baz | A | 5.5 | 6 | +0.5 | Within 1 |
| 2026-07-20 |  Jacob Misiorowski | A+ | 11.2 | 6 | -5.2 | Missed 2+ |
| 2026-07-20 |  Dylan Cease | A+ | 10.3 | 7 | -3.3 | Missed 2+ |
| 2026-07-20 |  JP Sears | B+ | 2.5 | 3 | +0.5 | Within 1 |
| 2026-07-20 |  Tanner Bibee | B+ | 3.2 | 5 | +1.8 | Within 2 |
| 2026-07-20 |  Braxton Ashcraft | A | 7 | 2 | -5 | Missed 2+ |
| 2026-07-20 |  Nick Martinez | A | 0.5 | 0 | -0.5 | Within 1 |
| 2026-07-20 |  Andrew Abbott | A | 5.7 | 6 | +0.3 | Within 1 |
| 2026-07-20 |  José Soriano | B+ | 4.8 | 7 | +2.2 | Missed 2+ |
| 2026-07-20 |  Erick Fedde | B+ | 1.9 | 6 | +4.1 | Missed 2+ |
| 2026-07-20 |  Joe Ryan | A+ | 7.4 | 3 | -4.4 | Missed 2+ |
| 2026-07-20 |  Kyle Leahy | A | 3.3 | 4 | +0.7 | Within 1 |
| 2026-07-20 |  George Kirby | A | 6.3 | 6 | -0.3 | Within 1 |
| 2026-07-20 |  Mitch Bratt | B+ | 0.7 | 4 | +3.3 | Missed 2+ |
| 2026-07-20 |  Emmet Sheehan | A | 5.6 | 6 | +0.4 | Within 1 |
| 2026-07-20 |  Janson Junk | B+ | 3.4 | 3 | -0.4 | Within 1 |
| 2026-07-20 |  Jeffrey Springs | B+ | 2.4 | 2 | -0.4 | Within 1 |
| 2026-07-20 |  Bryce Elder | B+ | 2.3 | 4 | +1.7 | Within 2 |
| 2026-07-20 |  Cristopher Sánchez | A+ | 7.8 | 7 | -0.8 | Within 1 |
Swipe for more