Calibration analysis
ACCURACY BY CONFIDENCE GRADE
Higher-confidence grades should become more accurate as sample size increases.
| Grade | Sample | Avg projected | Avg actual | MAE | Bias | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A+ | 107 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 2.39 | -1.34 | Needs work |
| A | 167 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 1.90 | +0.39 | Average |
| B+ | 212 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 1.79 | +0.74 | Average |
| B | 7 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 1.04 | +0.16 | Excellent |
| D | 7 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 3.23 | +2.77 | Needs work |
MAE should generally decrease as confidence rises from D toward A+. Persistent grade inversion may indicate that confidence thresholds need recalibration.
Latest outcomes
RECENT RESULTS
The 30 most recently resolved pitcher projections.
| Date | Pitcher | Grade | Projected | Actual | Difference | Error band | Line | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 |  Nick Martinez | A | 3.1 | 4 | +0.9 | Within 1 | U 3.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-04 |  Blake Snell | A+ | 6.48 | 7 | +0.5 | Within 1 | U 7.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-09-04 |  Nolan McLean | A | 4.99 | 7 | +2 | Within 2 | U 5.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-04 |  Erick Fedde | B+ | 3.56 | 2 | -1.6 | Within 2 | O 3.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-04 |  Chris Sale | A+ | 6.14 | 7 | +0.9 | Within 1 | U 6.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-04 |  Max Fried | A | 5.02 | 4 | -1 | Within 1 | O 4.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-04 |  Ryan Feltner | B+ | 4.62 | 5 | +0.4 | Within 1 | O 4.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-09-04 |  Kade Morris | B+ | 4.06 | 0 | -4.1 | Missed 2+ | O 2.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-04 |  Trevor Williams | B+ | 2.84 | 2 | -0.8 | Within 1 | O 1.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-09-04 |  Janson Junk | B+ | 3.84 | 4 | +0.2 | Within 1 | O 3.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-09-04 |  Rhett Lowder | B+ | 4.39 | 2 | -2.4 | Missed 2+ | O 3.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-04 |  Shota Imanaga | A | 5.27 | 4 | -1.3 | Within 2 | U 5.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-09-04 |  Keider Montero | A | 3.5 | 4 | +0.5 | Within 1 | O 2.5Pinnacle | Win |
| 2026-09-04 |  Andre Pallante | A | 4.01 | 1 | -3 | Missed 2+ | O 3.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-04 |  Jackson Kent | B+ | 4.18 | 4 | -0.2 | Within 1 | O 3.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-09-04 |  Logan Gilbert | A+ | 5.47 | 10 | +4.5 | Missed 2+ | U 6.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-04 |  Andrew Sears | B+ | 3.5 | 4 | +0.5 | Within 1 | O 2.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-09-04 |  Daniel IV | A | 0 | 0 | 0 | Within 1 | U 2.5Pinnacle | Win |
| 2026-09-04 |  Cristopher Sánchez | A+ | 6.46 | 5 | -1.5 | Within 2 | U 6.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-09-04 |  Merrill Kelly | B+ | 4 | 4 | 0 | Within 1 | U 4.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-09-04 |  Zebby Matthews | A+ | 5.45 | 4 | -1.5 | Within 2 | O 4.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-04 |  Matt Wilkinson | B+ | 3.86 | 2 | -1.9 | Within 2 | O 3.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-04 |  Foster Griffin | A | 4.17 | 3 | -1.2 | Within 2 | U 5.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-09-04 |  Cristian Javier | B+ | 3.96 | 8 | +4 | Missed 2+ | U 4.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-04 |  Jared Jones | A+ | 5.77 | 9 | +3.2 | Missed 2+ | U 6.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-04 |  Walker Buehler | A | 4.77 | 6 | +1.2 | Within 2 | O 4.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-09-04 |  Jameson Taillon | B+ | 3.93 | 1 | -2.9 | Missed 2+ | O 2.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-04 |  Shane Baz | B+ | 4.92 | 6 | +1.1 | Within 2 | O 4.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-09-04 |  Ryan Johnson | B+ | 3.99 | 6 | +2 | Within 2 | O 3.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-09-04 |  Logan Allen | B+ | 3.9 | 1 | -2.9 | Missed 2+ | O 3.5Pinnacle | Loss |