MLB pitcher strikeout

Drew Rasmussen

vs Cleveland Guardians2026-10-12FanDuelRHP

Projection

6.4

Ensemble: 6.4

Market line

5.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+0.9

Over 5.5

60% (6/10)· 4O streak

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Recommendation

Over 5.5

FanDuel

Confidence

A+

100/100

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Pitcher K%

28.9%

Whiff%

31.1%

CSW%

32.7%

WHIP

0.86

Avg IP

6.3

Avg pitches

95.8

Last 5 avg Ks

7.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

14.3%

Platoon K%

33.2%

Team chase

28.8%

Recent chase

N/A

Recent contact

N/A

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

18%

Opp K% vs LHP

19.3%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

5.5

FanDuel

Model projection

6.4

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Ks

6.4

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.9

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

60% (6/10)· 4O streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

5.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 5.5Model 6.4

Oct 18

@ CLE

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Oct 12

vs CLE

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Oct 3

vs NYY

OVER

Strikeouts

+4.5

Sep 22

@ NYY

OVER

Strikeouts

+5.5

Sep 17

vs ATH

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

17.5

FanDuel

Model projection

17.1

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

80%

8 of 10 overs

Average Outs

19.1

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

80% (8/10)· 4O streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

17.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 17.5Model 17.1

Oct 18

@ CLE

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Oct 12

vs CLE

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Oct 3

vs NYY

OVER

Outs

+6.5

Sep 22

@ NYY

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Sep 17

vs ATH

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Cleveland Guardians

No prior starts found against Cleveland Guardians.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	5.5	-125	-102	+0.9	-0.9	Best Over
DraftKings	5.5	-128	+101	+0.9	-0.9	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

84.9%

5+ Ks

69.6%

6+ Ks

50.7%Line

7+ Ks

31.4%

8+ Ks

17.4%

9+ Ks

8.3%

10+ Ks

3.6%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	29.7%	24.6%	23.1%	95.6
Sinker	26.3%	18%	22.6%	95
Cutter	25.4%	23.5%	11.6%	89.7
Changeup	14.8%	28.9%	18%	89.1
Curveball	1.9%	33.3%	0%	79.1
Sweeper	1.9%	23.1%	14.3%	84.3

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

50.7%

2-Strike Foul%

21.5%

2-Strike Contact%

70.8%

Expected Ks

33.1

K Luck

+1.9

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	32	62.5%	37.5%
1-2	42	45.2%	54.8%
2-2	35	48.6%	51.4%
3-2 (full)	15	33.3%	66.7%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Sinker	Cutter	Changeup	Curveball	Sweeper
Steven KwanL	12.7%	8.3%	7.3% vs R: 5.3%	6.6% vs R: 4.7%	9.8% vs R: 12.5%	4.3% vs R: 3.3%	12.9% vs R: 16%	17.4% vs R: 14.3%
José RamírezS	7.3%	15%	7.3% vs R: 7.8%	9.4% vs R: 9.7%	17.5% vs R: 19.1%	13.6% vs R: 14.7%	12.5% vs R: 16.1%	4.8% vs R: 5.7%
Chase DeLauterL	20.1%	12.1%	17.8% vs R: 14.8%	13.1% vs R: 7.1%	15% vs R: 16.7%	13% vs R: 9.4%	20.6% vs R: 14.3%	11.1% vs R: 14.8%
Jo AdellR	22%	24.4%	17.6% vs R: 19.8%	20.3% vs R: 20.9%	12.5% vs R: 10%	21.8% vs R: 23.9%	14.8% vs R: 13.9%	22.8% vs R: 21%
Nathaniel LoweL	20.4%	23.3%	17.6% vs R: 18.3%	16.4% vs R: 17.6%	24% vs R: 19%	13.8% vs R: 12.7%	20% vs R: 21.4%	25% vs R: 30.8%
Angel MartínezS	17.1%	24.6%	14.6% vs R: 11.1%	28.3% vs R: 35.7%	22.7% vs R: 27.8%	16.1% vs R: 18.8%	14% vs R: 17.2%	31% vs R: 35%
Travis BazzanaL	24.7%	18.8%	14.7% vs R: 12.6%	10.2% vs R: 5.6%	18.9% vs R: 21.9%	15.4% vs R: 14.7%	20.5% vs R: 14.3%	20.4% vs R: 19.4%
Patrick BaileyS	29.3%	26.1%	27% vs R: 26.5%	19% vs R: 21.6%	16% vs R: 11.1%	15.6% vs R: 13.2%	26.5% vs R: 33.3%	19.4% vs R: 15.4%
Brayan RocchioS	16.1%	13.5%	14.5% vs R: 13.8%	10.9% vs R: 8.5%	7.7% vs R: 7.1%	15.1% vs R: 13.9%	18% vs R: 24.3%	7.5% vs R: 10.3%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Sinker	Cutter	Changeup	Curveball	Sweeper
Steven KwanL	3.1% vs R: 2.6%	2.5% vs R: 4.5%	10.3% vs R: 7.4%	9.5% vs R: 7%	10.3% vs R: 12.5%	12.2% vs R: 4.5%
José RamírezS	10.6% vs R: 11.7%	7.9% vs R: 10.2%	13.1% vs R: 13.3%	18.9% vs R: 19.4%	17% vs R: 20%	7.3% vs R: 9.8%
Chase DeLauterL	12.1% vs R: 9.3%	4.3% vs R: 3.6%	14.6% vs R: 12.9%	17.5% vs R: 17.1%	17.1% vs R: 9.7%	14% vs R: 8.8%
Jo AdellR	20.7% vs R: 22.2%	16% vs R: 16%	22.1% vs R: 20%	37.3% vs R: 27%	28.6% vs R: 25%	32.6% vs R: 30.1%
Nathaniel LoweL	16.5% vs R: 16.3%	13.6% vs R: 16.9%	19.4% vs R: 14%	20.3% vs R: 18.7%	27.7% vs R: 29.5%	37% vs R: 37.5%
Angel MartínezS	13.5% vs R: 14.2%	13.9% vs R: 13.3%	12.1% vs R: 12%	19.7% vs R: 23.2%	25% vs R: 29.6%	34.8% vs R: 38.7%
Travis BazzanaL	14.6% vs R: 12.4%	10.4% vs R: 8.6%	24.7% vs R: 23.7%	36.1% vs R: 33.3%	31% vs R: 26.1%	30.2% vs R: 39.4%
Patrick BaileyS	21.2% vs R: 21.7%	11.2% vs R: 11.5%	24.1% vs R: 23.1%	25.5% vs R: 23.9%	39% vs R: 38.2%	40% vs R: 33.3%
Brayan RocchioS	14% vs R: 11.8%	8.7% vs R: 10.3%	16.8% vs R: 15.9%	31.5% vs R: 27.8%	32.8% vs R: 43.2%	28.6% vs R: 31.2%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Steven Kwan	12	0	0%	.364
José Ramírez	11	3	27.3%	.091
Brayan Rocchio	10	1	10%	.111
Angel Martínez	9	2	22.2%	.000
Chase DeLauter	6	2	33.3%	.500
Travis Bazzana	5	1	20%	.000
Jo Adell	4	2	50%	.000
Nathaniel Lowe	3	1	33.3%	.333

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Steven Kwan	17%	N/A	N/A	N/A
José Ramírez	27%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chase DeLauter	22.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jo Adell	31.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Nathaniel Lowe	27.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Angel Martínez	41.4%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Travis Bazzana	29%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Patrick Bailey	30%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Brayan Rocchio	33.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-09	New York Yankees	7.2	2
2026-07-21	Toronto Blue Jays	5.8	5
2026-07-26	Cleveland Guardians	5.2	9
2026-08-01	Chicago White Sox	5.9	10
2026-08-07	Seattle Mariners	4.6	8
2026-08-12	Athletics	7.1	3
2026-08-19	Toronto Blue Jays	7	5
2026-08-24	Detroit Tigers	6.8	5
2026-08-30	San Diego Padres	6.8	6
2026-09-05	Texas Rangers	5.56	7
2026-09-11	Houston Astros	5.67	4
2026-09-17	Athletics	6.12	3
2026-09-22	New York Yankees	5.28	11
2026-10-03	New York Yankees	5.9	10
2026-10-12	Cleveland Guardians	6.36	7
2026-10-18	Cleveland Guardians	5.37	6
2026-10-24	Milwaukee Brewers	6.33	—

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

✓Pitcher K% is 28.9%

✓Whiff rate is 31.1%

✓CSW rate is 32.7%

!Opponent K% is 18%

✓Average pitch count is 95.8

✓WHIP is 0.86

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-10-18	Cleveland Guardians	Away	7	6	95	0.76	16	37.5%
2026-10-12	Cleveland Guardians	Home	6	7	91	0.79	12	58.3%
2026-10-03	New York Yankees	Home	8	10	101	0.38	18	55.6%
2026-09-22	New York Yankees	Away	6.2	11	114	0.91	19	57.9%
2026-09-17	Athletics	Home	5	3	76	0.93	11	27.3%
2026-09-11	Houston Astros	Home	7	4	92	0.92	9	44.4%
2026-09-05	Texas Rangers	Away	7	7	97	0.91	12	58.3%
2026-08-30	San Diego Padres	Home	6	6	97	0.93	13	46.2%
2026-08-24	Detroit Tigers	Away	6	5	103	0.93	16	31.2%
2026-08-19	Toronto Blue Jays	Home	5	5	86	0.95	13	38.5%