MLB pitcher strikeout

Jacob Misiorowski

vs Tampa Bay Rays2026-10-23FanDuelRHP

Projection

5.1

Ensemble: 5.7

Market line

6.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+1.4

Under 6.5

20% (2/10)· 5U streak

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Recommendation

Under 6.5

FanDuel

Confidence

A+

90/100

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Pitcher K%

31.4%

Whiff%

30.2%

CSW%

30.9%

WHIP

0.94

Avg IP

4.8

Avg pitches

81.2

Last 5 avg Ks

4.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

34.3%

Team chase

32.8%

Recent chase

N/A

Recent contact

N/A

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

17.6%

Opp K% vs LHP

15.9%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

6.5

FanDuel

Model projection

5.1

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

20%

2 of 10 overs

Average Ks

5.5

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.0

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

20% (2/10)· 5U streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

6.5

0.527

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Under

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Line 6.5Model 5.1

Oct 23

vs TB

UNDER

Strikeouts

-4.5

Oct 11

vs LAD

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Oct 3

vs SD

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Sep 27

vs STL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Sep 20

@ BAL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

16.5

FanDuel

Model projection

14.2

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Outs

14.0

Selected starts

Average margin

-2.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 6U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

16.5

0.527

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Under

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Line 16.5Model 14.2

Oct 23

vs TB

UNDER

Outs

-8.5

Oct 11

vs LAD

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

Oct 3

vs SD

UNDER

Outs

-4.5

Sep 27

vs STL

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Sep 20

@ BAL

UNDER

Outs

-7.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Tampa Bay Rays

No prior starts found against Tampa Bay Rays.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	6.5	-130	+102	-1.4	+1.4	Best Under
DraftKings	6.5	-136	+107	-1.4	+1.4	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

76.3%

5+ Ks

56.2%

6+ Ks

36.5%

7+ Ks

20.6%Line

8+ Ks

9.5%

9+ Ks

3.7%

10+ Ks

1.1%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	64.3%	34.7%	28.7%	100.8
Cutter	13.6%	20%	18.2%	95.5
Slider	11%	41.4%	28.9%	91.3
Curveball	10.8%	37.7%	25.5%	88.1

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

46.6%

2-Strike Foul%

34.7%

2-Strike Contact%

75.8%

Expected Ks

K Luck

-3

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	28	57.1%	42.9%
1-2	28	60.7%	39.3%
2-2	20	40%	60%
3-2 (full)	18	27.8%	72.2%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Cutter	Slider	Curveball
Yandy DíazR	11.9%	15.3%	16.8% vs R: 21%	16.1% vs R: 16.7%	9.4% vs R: 8.6%	12.2% vs R: 17.9%
Jonathan ArandaL	27.4%	23.2%	17.1% vs R: 15.7%	26% vs R: 27.8%	21.3% vs R: 24.7%	30.4% vs R: 33.3%
Chandler SimpsonL	9.9%	6.7%	5.4% vs R: 5.6%	9.7% vs R: 9.1%	15.9% vs R: 16%	11.1% vs R: 10%
Junior CamineroR	13.8%	20%	16.7% vs R: 17.3%	18.5% vs R: 14.3%	14.2% vs R: 15.8%	26.9% vs R: 32.3%
Liam HicksL	14.3%	8.7%	7.6% vs R: 6.1%	2.9% vs R: 3.3%	22.6% vs R: 15.8%	14.8% vs R: 17%
Jonny DeLucaR	23.2%	19.4%	18.3% vs R: 13.1%	12.5% vs R: 16.7%	24.6% vs R: 25.7%	15% vs R: 18.2%
Victor Mesa Jr.L	13.6%	22.4%	17.7% vs R: 17.8%	21.4% vs R: 21.4%	22% vs R: 20%	14.3% vs R: 15%
Ben WilliamsonR	19.4%	18.3%	13% vs R: 11.5%	12.5% vs R: 18.2%	18.4% vs R: 16.1%	15.8%
Taylor WallsS	21.3%	25.8%	22.9% vs R: 22.3%	18.5% vs R: 18.2%	21.2% vs R: 21.6%	19.6% vs R: 21.2%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Cutter	Slider	Curveball
Yandy DíazR	16.6% vs R: 18.9%	10.7% vs R: 11.7%	13.2% vs R: 12.3%	14% vs R: 18.2%
Jonathan ArandaL	22.1% vs R: 21.8%	21.7% vs R: 20.2%	21.4% vs R: 21.3%	22.6% vs R: 24.4%
Chandler SimpsonL	3.5% vs R: 3.2%	11.5% vs R: 10.8%	20.5% vs R: 20%	24.2% vs R: 23.1%
Junior CamineroR	20.4% vs R: 20.6%	12.1% vs R: 14.1%	24.2% vs R: 25.6%	27.3% vs R: 36.1%
Liam HicksL	4.7% vs R: 4.2%	8.2% vs R: 5.6%	21.7% vs R: 21.7%	14% vs R: 15.9%
Jonny DeLucaR	18.9% vs R: 15.2%	19.2% vs R: 22.2%	33% vs R: 34.2%	20% vs R: 26.7%
Victor Mesa Jr.L	24.5% vs R: 25.9%	17.1% vs R: 18.8%	27.6% vs R: 27.8%	30.3% vs R: 29.6%
Ben WilliamsonR	7.1% vs R: 7.8%	16.7% vs R: 21.7%	24% vs R: 14.9%	21.1%
Taylor WallsS	17.6% vs R: 19.2%	13.7% vs R: 17%	29.8% vs R: 34.1%	25.7% vs R: 39.1%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Yandy Díaz	3	1	33.3%	.333
Jonathan Aranda	3	0	0%	.000
Chandler Simpson	3	0	0%	.500
Junior Caminero	3	2	66.7%	.000
Ben Williamson	3	0	0%	.000
Liam Hicks	2	0	0%	.500

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Yandy Díaz	30.8%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jonathan Aranda	30.5%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chandler Simpson	33.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Junior Caminero	34.4%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Liam Hicks	26.4%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jonny DeLuca	37.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Victor Mesa Jr.	37.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Ben Williamson	36.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Taylor Walls	27%	N/A	N/A	N/A

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-07	St. Louis Cardinals	11.4	11
2026-07-20	New York Mets	11.2	6
2026-07-26	Colorado Rockies	6.9	12
2026-08-02	Los Angeles Angels	7.2	10
2026-08-09	Minnesota Twins	6.5	9
2026-08-15	Los Angeles Dodgers	10.9	6
2026-08-21	Atlanta Braves	11.1	6
2026-09-02	Chicago Cubs	6.12	5
2026-09-08	Chicago Cubs	6.27	9
2026-09-15	Pittsburgh Pirates	9.1	7
2026-09-20	Baltimore Orioles	6.81	4
2026-09-27	St. Louis Cardinals	7.05	5
2026-10-03	San Diego Padres	5.89	6
2026-10-11	Los Angeles Dodgers	6.03	5
2026-10-23	Tampa Bay Rays	5.1	3

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

✓Pitcher K% is 31.4%

✓Whiff rate is 30.2%

✓CSW rate is 30.9%

!Opponent K% is 17.1%

!Average pitch count is 81.2

✓WHIP is 0.94

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-10-23	Tampa Bay Rays	Home	2.2	2	36	1.36	—	—
2026-10-11	Los Angeles Dodgers	Home	4.1	5	94	1.56	13	38.5%
2026-10-03	San Diego Padres	Home	4	6	88	1.25	13	46.2%
2026-09-27	St. Louis Cardinals	Home	5.1	5	68	0.8	10	50%
2026-09-20	Baltimore Orioles	Away	3	4	44	0.8	6	66.7%
2026-09-15	Pittsburgh Pirates	Away	5	7	82	0.81	16	43.8%
2026-09-08	Chicago Cubs	Home	6.1	9	93	0.8	17	52.9%
2026-09-02	Chicago Cubs	Away	4	5	92	0.79	13	38.5%
2026-08-27	New York Mets	Away	6	6	89	0.75	13	46.2%
2026-08-21	Atlanta Braves	Home	6	6	96	0.76	13	46.2%