MLB pitcher strikeout

Nick Martinez

@ Milwaukee Brewers2026-10-23FanDuelRHP

Projection

2.3

Model strikeouts

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+1.2

Under 3.5

40% (4/10)· 4U streak

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Recommendation

Under 3.5

FanDuel

Confidence

65/100

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Pitcher K%

18.3%

Whiff%

17.7%

CSW%

24%

WHIP

1.16

Avg IP

5.2

Avg pitches

74.6

Last 5 avg Ks

3.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

18.5%

Platoon K%

17.3%

Team chase

27.7%

Recent chase

N/A

Recent contact

N/A

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

21.7%

Opp K% vs LHP

21.9%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model projection

2.3

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.5

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.0

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 4U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 2.3

Oct 23

@ MIL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Oct 17

@ CLE

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Oct 7

@ NYY

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Sep 27

@ PHI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Sep 22

@ NYY

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

13.5

FanDuel

Model projection

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Outs

14.8

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

70% (7/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

13.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 13.5

Oct 23

@ MIL

UNDER

Outs

-7.5

Oct 17

@ CLE

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Oct 7

@ NYY

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Sep 27

@ PHI

UNDER

Outs

-5.5

Sep 22

@ NYY

OVER

Outs

+4.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Milwaukee Brewers

No prior starts found against Milwaukee Brewers.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	3.5	+150	-194	-1.2	+1.2	Best Under
DraftKings	3.5	+131	-168	-1.2	+1.2	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

No ladder projection available for this start yet.

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sinker	33.3%	9.7%	22.2%	92.2
Cutter	23.6%	12.1%	14%	89.1
Changeup	23%	24.3%	10.9%	78
4-Seam Fastball	14.5%	16.7%	15.3%	92.5
Slider	5.2%	32%	0%	84.4

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

34.7%

2-Strike Foul%

27.5%

2-Strike Contact%

82.9%

Expected Ks

17.1

K Luck

-0.1

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	22	27.3%	72.7%
1-2	30	36.7%	63.3%
2-2	23	26.1%	73.9%
3-2 (full)	12	25%	75%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sinker	Cutter	Changeup	4-Seam Fastball	Slider
Jackson ChourioR	20.3%	24.6%	24.7% vs R: 23.4%	25.7% vs R: 24%	15.4% vs R: 17.9%	19.3% vs R: 20.5%	19.8% vs R: 23.1%
Jake BauersL	23.1%	28.5%	16.7% vs R: 14.3%	25.6% vs R: 26.7%	17.6% vs R: 16.7%	18% vs R: 20.8%	27% vs R: 33.3%
Christian YelichL	26.2%	27.2%	19% vs R: 16.7%	22.8% vs R: 22%	13.7% vs R: 14.7%	17.3% vs R: 18.2%	32.2% vs R: 34.6%
William ContrerasR	15.8%	14.2%	9.3% vs R: 10.2%	18.4% vs R: 22.2%	15% vs R: 15.8%	11% vs R: 11.6%	20% vs R: 23%
Brice TurangL	25.6%	24.6%	19.4% vs R: 21.4%	12.2% vs R: 3.7%	15% vs R: 13.4%	19.5% vs R: 22.5%	21.6% vs R: 18.8%
Garrett MitchellL	28.7%	32%	25.8% vs R: 29.4%	18% vs R: 18.4%	26.9% vs R: 32.7%	28.6% vs R: 27.1%	26.8% vs R: 23.9%
Cooper PrattR	21.4%	16.8%	12.8% vs R: 3.7%	6.2% vs R: 0%	10.8% vs R: 13.6%	15.7% vs R: 13.9%	13.3% vs R: 16.7%
Sal FrelickL	10.2%	9.8%	10.3% vs R: 9.5%	10.7% vs R: 14.3%	8.3% vs R: 4.3%	10% vs R: 9.6%	13.5% vs R: 14.3%
David HamiltonL	27.2%	20.9%	13% vs R: 14.6%	24.3% vs R: 26.5%	18% vs R: 15.6%	14.3% vs R: 11%	22.7% vs R: 17.9%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sinker	Cutter	Changeup	4-Seam Fastball	Slider
Jackson ChourioR	10% vs R: 11.8%	28.3% vs R: 28.4%	20.4% vs R: 30.3%	24.4% vs R: 21.7%	31.9% vs R: 30.4%
Jake BauersL	14.2% vs R: 17%	33.3% vs R: 36.6%	42.9% vs R: 39.8%	18.2% vs R: 18.8%	35% vs R: 36.5%
Christian YelichL	14.5% vs R: 22.2%	28.3% vs R: 26.3%	19.7% vs R: 21.7%	22.3% vs R: 23.5%	44.4% vs R: 44%
William ContrerasR	7.9% vs R: 5.3%	20.4% vs R: 26.5%	23.3% vs R: 32%	15.2% vs R: 14.6%	26.7% vs R: 28.1%
Brice TurangL	11.1% vs R: 12.4%	17.3% vs R: 7.4%	21.1% vs R: 18.3%	20.7% vs R: 21.7%	28.4% vs R: 19.8%
Garrett MitchellL	17.9% vs R: 14.9%	36.8% vs R: 38.4%	49.5% vs R: 50%	25% vs R: 25.7%	43.2% vs R: 40.5%
Cooper PrattR	16.5% vs R: 14.3%	18.4% vs R: 20%	18% vs R: 23.1%	14.4% vs R: 10.4%	25.3% vs R: 26.2%
Sal FrelickL	2.7% vs R: 1.7%	9.2% vs R: 7.1%	8.6% vs R: 7.1%	8.6% vs R: 7.3%	8.6% vs R: 10.5%
David HamiltonL	12.4% vs R: 13%	11% vs R: 11.9%	27.9% vs R: 27.3%	12.1% vs R: 10.8%	35% vs R: 30.8%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Christian Yelich	20	5	25%	.263
William Contreras	18	2	11.1%	.278
Brice Turang	17	4	23.5%	.250
Sal Frelick	13	0	0%	.308
Jackson Chourio	12	2	16.7%	.167
Garrett Mitchell	12	4	33.3%	.333
Jake Bauers	5	1	20%	.200
David Hamilton	3	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Jackson Chourio	34.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jake Bauers	23.2%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Christian Yelich	27%	N/A	N/A	N/A
William Contreras	27.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Brice Turang	25.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Garrett Mitchell	23%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Cooper Pratt	30.5%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Sal Frelick	28.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A
David Hamilton	28.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-10	Seattle Mariners	2.2	1
2026-07-20	Toronto Blue Jays	0.5	0
2026-07-25	Cleveland Guardians	1.5	5
2026-07-31	Chicago White Sox	2.1	2
2026-08-05	Colorado Rockies	2.4	4
2026-08-11	Athletics	2.4	5
2026-08-18	Toronto Blue Jays	2.4	5
2026-08-23	Baltimore Orioles	2.6	4
2026-08-29	San Diego Padres	2.4	4
2026-09-04	Texas Rangers	3.1	4
2026-09-10	Atlanta Braves	4.2	3
2026-09-16	Athletics	3.7	3
2026-09-22	New York Yankees	3.5	7
2026-09-27	Philadelphia Phillies	3.6	1
2026-10-07	New York Yankees	2.7	3
2026-10-16	Cleveland Guardians	2.4	—
2026-10-17	Cleveland Guardians	2.4	3
2026-10-23	Milwaukee Brewers	2.3	5

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 18.3%

!Whiff rate is 17.7%

!CSW rate is 24%

!Opponent K% is 22.7%

!Average pitch count is 74.6

!WHIP is 1.16

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-10-23	Milwaukee Brewers	Away	2	3	35	1.27	—	—
2026-10-17	Cleveland Guardians	Away	5.1	3	79	1.11	12	25%
2026-10-07	New York Yankees	Away	3.2	3	63	1.64	10	30%
2026-09-27	Philadelphia Phillies	Away	2.2	1	50	1.09	7	14.3%
2026-09-22	New York Yankees	Away	6	7	94	1.07	12	58.3%
2026-09-16	Athletics	Home	5	3	72	1.07	8	37.5%
2026-09-10	Atlanta Braves	Away	6.1	3	68	1.07	12	25%
2026-09-04	Texas Rangers	Away	6.1	4	90	1.1	14	28.6%
2026-08-29	San Diego Padres	Home	6	4	81	1.1	9	44.4%
2026-08-23	Baltimore Orioles	Away	6	4	86	1.1	14	28.6%