MLB pitcher strikeout

Robert Gasser

@ Los Angeles Dodgers2026-10-14DraftKingsLHP

Projection

4.6

Ensemble: 4.4

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+1.1

Over 3.5

70% (7/10)· 2U streak

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Recommendation

Over 3.5

DraftKings

Confidence

60/100

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Pitcher K%

23.3%

Whiff%

23.5%

CSW%

28.2%

WHIP

1.23

Avg IP

Avg pitches

82.1

Last 5 avg Ks

4.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

22.6%

Team chase

28.5%

Recent chase

N/A

Recent contact

N/A

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

19.4%

Opp K% vs LHP

17%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model projection

4.6

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Ks

4.8

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

70% (7/10)· 2U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 4.6

Oct 14

@ LAD

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Oct 7

@ SD

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Sep 25

vs STL

OVER

Strikeouts

+5.5

Sep 19

@ BAL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Sep 13

vs CIN

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

11.5

FanDuel

Model projection

15.2

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

90%

9 of 10 overs

Average Outs

15.4

Selected starts

Average margin

+3.9

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

90% (9/10)· 8O streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

11.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 11.5Model 15.2

Oct 14

@ LAD

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Oct 7

@ SD

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Sep 25

vs STL

OVER

Outs

+6.5

Sep 19

@ BAL

OVER

Outs

+9.5

Sep 13

vs CIN

OVER

Outs

+3.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

No prior starts found against Los Angeles Dodgers.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	3.5	+110	-140	+1.1	-1.1	Best Over
FanDuel	3.5	+114	-146	+1.1	-1.1	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

71%Line

5+ Ks

50.7%

6+ Ks

31.7%

7+ Ks

16.1%

8+ Ks

7.6%

9+ Ks

3.1%

10+ Ks

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sweeper	23.2%	23.9%	20.9%	80.6
4-Seam Fastball	22.8%	26%	16.7%	93.3
Sinker	21%	9.3%	21.2%	93.2
Cutter	19.3%	12.7%	4.3%	88.9
Changeup	12.7%	28.8%	18.4%	88.6
Slider	1%	0%	0%	83.9

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

35.8%

2-Strike Foul%

23.1%

2-Strike Contact%

82.1%

Expected Ks

26.9

K Luck

-2.9

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	25	32%	68%
1-2	39	43.6%	53.8%
2-2	29	34.5%	65.5%
3-2 (full)	17	11.8%	88.2%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sweeper	4-Seam Fastball	Sinker	Cutter	Changeup	Slider
Mookie BettsR	7.6%	12.6%	5% vs L: 0%	7.7% vs L: 8.9%	8.3% vs L: 7.7%	20.7% vs L: 0%	11.6% vs L: 7.5%	19.8% vs L: 19%
Freddie FreemanL	20.6%	16.2%	22% vs L: 20%	17% vs L: 26.6%	12.2% vs L: 13%	10.2% vs L: 0%	7.4% vs L: 5.9%	16.1% vs L: 15.9%
Teoscar HernándezR	22.2%	29.9%	39.3% vs L: 40%	19.9% vs L: 16.9%	21.9% vs L: 0%	21.9% vs L: 15.4%	18.4% vs L: 19%	30.2% vs L: 33.3%
Kyle TuckerL	16.8%	16.7%	23.4% vs L: 4%	15.1% vs L: 19.7%	19.7% vs L: 20%	23.1% vs L: 27.3%	12.7% vs L: 14.3%	12.3% vs L: 2.6%
Andy PagesR	17.4%	20.5%	12.5% vs L: 25%	15.6% vs L: 13.8%	21.1% vs L: 25%	13.8% vs L: 18.2%	15.5% vs L: 15.2%	17.4% vs L: 12%
Shohei OhtaniL	25%	24.3%	24% vs L: 25.9%	23.3% vs L: 36.2%	17% vs L: 26.3%	22.6% vs L: 28.6%	24.5% vs L: 20%	24.5% vs L: 26.5%
Will SmithR	21.7%	14%	10.6% vs L: 15.4%	12.1% vs L: 16.7%	14.9% vs L: 12.5%	6.2% vs L: 25%	9.3% vs L: 7.4%	9.3% vs L: 16.7%
Miguel RojasR	11.1%	10%	8.7% vs L: 8.3%	13.3% vs L: 11.6%	3.6% vs L: 0%	16.7% vs L: 25%	6.9% vs L: 6.9%	13.9% vs L: 5.3%
Tommy EdmanS	23.6%	18.6%	8% vs L: 20%	29% vs L: 43.3%	12.5% vs L: 0%	14.3% vs L: 0%	12.5% vs L: 16.7%	20.9% vs L: 12.5%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sweeper	4-Seam Fastball	Sinker	Cutter	Changeup	Slider
Mookie BettsR	15.9% vs L: 0%	5.4% vs L: 2.7%	4% vs L: 2.3%	14% vs L: 0%	16.1% vs L: 14.1%	25.2% vs L: 22.7%
Freddie FreemanL	24.4% vs L: 29.4%	19.5% vs L: 29%	17.7% vs L: 13%	19.8% vs L: 27.6%	20.9% vs L: 10.5%	31.1% vs L: 33.3%
Teoscar HernándezR	45.5% vs L: 53.8%	24% vs L: 24.5%	13.5% vs L: 8.7%	30.1% vs L: 18.5%	35.7% vs L: 36.7%	40.5% vs L: 50%
Kyle TuckerL	29.1% vs L: 17.2%	16.3% vs L: 19.6%	5.1% vs L: 2%	13.1% vs L: 17.6%	25.7% vs L: 23.5%	25.1% vs L: 29.5%
Andy PagesR	26% vs L: 29.4%	17.6% vs L: 12.5%	12.4% vs L: 2.6%	14.8% vs L: 15.6%	21.8% vs L: 19.2%	23.6% vs L: 18.5%
Shohei OhtaniL	32.1% vs L: 34%	23.6% vs L: 17.9%	19.5% vs L: 23.9%	21.8% vs L: 21.1%	38.5% vs L: 44.4%	37.1% vs L: 37.9%
Will SmithR	22.4% vs L: 11.1%	14.3% vs L: 19.3%	6.2% vs L: 6.2%	18.8% vs L: 12.5%	9.5% vs L: 3.3%	15.6% vs L: 14.3%
Miguel RojasR	12.1% vs L: 7.7%	8.1% vs L: 4.7%	7.4% vs L: 8.2%	11.6% vs L: 13.8%	31.5% vs L: 32.1%	26.3% vs L: 15.4%
Tommy EdmanS	18.8% vs L: 14.3%	17.7% vs L: 26.3%	4.2% vs L: 0%	9.1% vs L: 6.7%	21.4% vs L: 28.1%	34.7% vs L: 31.2%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Shohei Ohtani	7	3	42.9%	.000
Mookie Betts	6	2	33.3%	.167
Teoscar Hernández	5	2	40%	.400
Kyle Tucker	5	1	20%	.250
Andy Pages	5	0	0%	.800
Freddie Freeman	3	0	0%	1.000
Tommy Edman	3	0	0%	.667
Will Smith	2	0	0%	.000
Miguel Rojas	2	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Mookie Betts	20.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Freddie Freeman	32.5%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Teoscar Hernández	36.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Kyle Tucker	22.4%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Andy Pages	28.5%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Shohei Ohtani	31.8%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Will Smith	19.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Miguel Rojas	33.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Tommy Edman	30.2%	N/A	N/A	N/A

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-07	St. Louis Cardinals	4.7	4
2026-07-12	Pittsburgh Pirates	4.7	3
2026-07-19	Miami Marlins	5.1	5
2026-07-25	Colorado Rockies	4.9	4
2026-08-01	Los Angeles Angels	5.1	6
2026-08-08	Minnesota Twins	4.4	3
2026-08-14	Los Angeles Dodgers	4.6	7
2026-08-20	Seattle Mariners	4.8	4
2026-09-01	Chicago Cubs	4.58	4
2026-09-07	Chicago Cubs	4.52	5
2026-09-13	Cincinnati Reds	5.42	5
2026-09-19	Baltimore Orioles	5.18	2
2026-09-25	St. Louis Cardinals	4.89	9
2026-10-07	San Diego Padres	4.38	3
2026-10-14	Los Angeles Dodgers	4.58	3

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 23.3%

!Whiff rate is 23.5%

!CSW rate is 28.2%

!Opponent K% is 18.8%

!Average pitch count is 82.1

!WHIP is 1.23

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-10-14	Los Angeles Dodgers	Away	5	3	72	0.89	—	—
2026-10-07	San Diego Padres	Away	4	3	56	1	9	33.3%
2026-09-25	St. Louis Cardinals	Home	6	9	87	1.19	14	64.3%
2026-09-19	Baltimore Orioles	Away	7	2	107	1.24	14	14.3%
2026-09-13	Cincinnati Reds	Home	5	5	89	1.27	16	31.2%
2026-09-07	Chicago Cubs	Home	4.2	5	83	1.28	14	35.7%
2026-09-01	Chicago Cubs	Away	4.1	4	76	1.29	11	36.4%
2026-08-26	New York Mets	Away	5.1	6	82	1.3	13	46.2%
2026-08-20	Seattle Mariners	Home	3.2	4	77	1.29	10	40%
2026-08-14	Los Angeles Dodgers	Away	6.1	7	102	1.24	13	53.8%