MLB pitcher strikeout

Parker Messick

vs Tampa Bay Rays2026-10-18DraftKingsLHP

Projection

4.8

Ensemble: 4.8

Market line

4.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.3

Over 4.5

70% (7/10)· 2U streak

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Recommendation

Over 4.5

DraftKings

Confidence

65/100

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Pitcher K%

23.6%

Whiff%

24.3%

CSW%

25.1%

WHIP

1.26

Avg IP

4.6

Avg pitches

84.8

Last 5 avg Ks

3.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

13.9%

Platoon K%

27%

Team chase

33.3%

Recent chase

N/A

Recent contact

N/A

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

18.6%

Opp K% vs LHP

16.6%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

4.5

DraftKings

Model projection

4.8

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Ks

5.4

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.9

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

70% (7/10)· 2U streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

4.5

0.527

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Under

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Line 4.5Model 4.8

Oct 18

vs TB

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Oct 13

@ TB

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Oct 8

@ CWS

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Oct 3

vs CWS

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Sep 27

@ KC

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

15.5

FanDuel

Model projection

14.8

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Outs

13.5

Selected starts

Average margin

-2.0

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 6U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

15.5

0.527

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Under

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Line 15.5Model 14.8

Oct 18

vs TB

UNDER

Outs

-9.5

Oct 13

@ TB

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Oct 8

@ CWS

UNDER

Outs

-8.5

Oct 3

vs CWS

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Sep 27

@ KC

UNDER

Outs

-6.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Tampa Bay Rays

No prior starts found against Tampa Bay Rays.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	4.5	-140	+110	+0.3	-0.3	Best Over
FanDuel	4.5	-128	+100	+0.3	-0.3	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

74.7%

5+ Ks

55.7%Line

6+ Ks

36.7%

7+ Ks

19.5%

8+ Ks

8.8%

9+ Ks

3.6%

10+ Ks

1.1%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	52.4%	20.4%	23.1%	94.7
Changeup	23.5%	32.7%	19.7%	86.3
Sinker	11.4%	10%	14.3%	93.5
Slider	8.2%	28.6%	19.2%	87.2
Curveball	4.2%	16.7%	11.1%	80

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

38.2%

2-Strike Foul%

26.2%

2-Strike Contact%

81.9%

Expected Ks

25.6

K Luck

-4.6

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	20	30%	70%
1-2	26	34.6%	65.4%
2-2	32	37.5%	62.5%
3-2 (full)	18	27.8%	72.2%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Sinker	Slider	Curveball
Yandy DíazR	11.9%	15.3%	16.8% vs L: 8%	10.1% vs L: 10.4%	11.9% vs L: 20%	9.4% vs L: 13.3%	12.2% vs L: 4.8%
Jonathan ArandaL	27.4%	23.2%	17.1% vs L: 20.8%	11.4% vs L: 23.1%	23.6% vs L: 25%	21.3% vs L: 14.3%	30.4% vs L: 20%
Junior CamineroR	13.8%	20%	16.7% vs L: 15.5%	14.5% vs L: 13%	16% vs L: 10%	14.2% vs L: 8%	26.9% vs L: 19%
Victor Mesa Jr.L	13.6%	22.4%	17.7% vs L: 17.4%	20.8%	26.3% vs L: 12.5%	22% vs L: 25%	14.3%
Chandler SimpsonL	9.9%	6.7%	5.4% vs L: 4.9%	15.8% vs L: 25%	10.2% vs L: 17.2%	15.9% vs L: 15.8%	11.1% vs L: 14.3%
Jonny DeLucaR	23.2%	19.4%	18.3% vs L: 23.1%	13.5% vs L: 14%	23.1% vs L: 23.5%	24.6% vs L: 22.7%	15% vs L: 11.1%
Ben WilliamsonR	19.4%	18.3%	13% vs L: 14.3%	28.1% vs L: 25%	18.5% vs L: 12.5%	18.4% vs L: 22.2%	15.8% vs L: 7.1%
Richie PalaciosL	18.8%	16.7%	17.6% vs L: 25%	11.3%	19.6% vs L: 28.6%	14.8% vs L: 18.2%	10%
Taylor WallsS	21.3%	25.8%	22.9% vs L: 24.1%	26.9% vs L: 25.7%	7.7% vs L: 14.3%	21.2% vs L: 20%	19.6% vs L: 16.7%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Sinker	Slider	Curveball
Yandy DíazR	16.6% vs L: 12.1%	14.3% vs L: 14.3%	5.3% vs L: 4.5%	13.2% vs L: 18.2%	14% vs L: 8.3%
Jonathan ArandaL	22.1% vs L: 23.1%	14.9% vs L: 33.3%	7.9% vs L: 12.2%	21.4% vs L: 21.4%	22.6% vs L: 12.5%
Junior CamineroR	20.4% vs L: 20%	27.3% vs L: 26.7%	10.1% vs L: 10%	24.2% vs L: 15.4%	27.3% vs L: 16.7%
Victor Mesa Jr.L	24.5% vs L: 19%	21.7%	8.3% vs L: 3%	27.6% vs L: 27.3%	30.3%
Chandler SimpsonL	3.5% vs L: 4.5%	23.4% vs L: 44.4%	3.6% vs L: 5%	20.7% vs L: 21.2%	24.2% vs L: 28.6%
Jonny DeLucaR	18.9% vs L: 22.7%	25.8% vs L: 26%	10.3% vs L: 14.6%	33% vs L: 30%	20% vs L: 13.3%
Ben WilliamsonR	7.1% vs L: 6.4%	28% vs L: 27.7%	10.1% vs L: 7.7%	24% vs L: 39.3%	21.1% vs L: 20%
Richie PalaciosL	11.8% vs L: 21.2%	32.9%	5% vs L: 0%	27.9% vs L: 44.4%	21.8%
Taylor WallsS	17.6% vs L: 14.7%	31.2% vs L: 34.8%	10.7% vs L: 12.2%	29.8% vs L: 15.4%	25.7% vs L: 0%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Yandy Díaz	13	2	15.4%	.273
Junior Caminero	12	2	16.7%	.083
Chandler Simpson	11	1	9.1%	.273
Jonny DeLuca	5	1	20%	.200
Ben Williamson	5	0	0%	.200
Jonathan Aranda	3	1	33.3%	.000
Taylor Walls	3	3	100%	.000
Richie Palacios	2	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Yandy Díaz	32.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jonathan Aranda	30.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Junior Caminero	33.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Victor Mesa Jr.	38.4%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chandler Simpson	32.5%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jonny DeLuca	35.8%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Ben Williamson	34.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Richie Palacios	34.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Taylor Walls	27.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-10	Miami Marlins	5.5	1
2026-07-21	Minnesota Twins	6	6
2026-07-26	Tampa Bay Rays	4.6	6
2026-08-01	Arizona Diamondbacks	4.7	6
2026-08-07	Chicago White Sox	5.1	8
2026-08-13	Detroit Tigers	6.4	6
2026-08-19	San Francisco Giants	6.1	10
2026-08-24	Los Angeles Angels	7.8	4
2026-08-30	Kansas City Royals	7.3	5
2026-09-05	Detroit Tigers	6.28	12
2026-09-11	Minnesota Twins	5.52	5
2026-09-16	Chicago White Sox	7.02	8
2026-09-22	Boston Red Sox	6.17	5
2026-09-27	Kansas City Royals	6.17	2
2026-10-03	Chicago White Sox	6.01	6
2026-10-08	Chicago White Sox	6.15	5
2026-10-13	Tampa Bay Rays	4.85	3
2026-10-18	Tampa Bay Rays	4.85	3

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 23.6%

!Whiff rate is 24.3%

!CSW rate is 25.1%

!Opponent K% is 18%

!Average pitch count is 84.8

!WHIP is 1.26

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-10-18	Tampa Bay Rays	Home	2	3	57	1.98	—	—
2026-10-13	Tampa Bay Rays	Away	5	3	82	1.71	9	33.3%
2026-10-08	Chicago White Sox	Away	2.1	5	65	1.8	10	50%
2026-10-03	Chicago White Sox	Home	4.1	6	87	1.38	14	42.9%
2026-09-27	Kansas City Royals	Away	3	2	64	1.06	7	28.6%
2026-09-22	Boston Red Sox	Away	5	5	96	1.04	15	33.3%
2026-09-16	Chicago White Sox	Home	6	8	86	1.04	12	66.7%
2026-09-11	Minnesota Twins	Away	5.1	5	95	1.03	13	38.5%
2026-09-05	Detroit Tigers	Home	6	12	103	1.04	16	75%
2026-08-30	Kansas City Royals	Home	6	5	105	1.02	12	41.7%