MLB pitcher strikeout

Blake Snell

vs Milwaukee Brewers2026-10-14DraftKingsLHP

Projection

5.8

Ensemble: 5.9

Market line

6.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.7

Under 6.5

50% (5/10)· 1O streak

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Recommendation

Under 6.5

DraftKings

Confidence

B+

70/100

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Pitcher K%

28.6%

Whiff%

32%

CSW%

30.4%

WHIP

1.23

Avg IP

4.7

Avg pitches

83.8

Last 5 avg Ks

5.2

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

31.6%

Team chase

27.7%

Recent chase

N/A

Recent contact

N/A

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

24.2%

Opp K% vs LHP

20.8%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

6.5

DraftKings

Model projection

5.8

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Ks

6.4

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

50% (5/10)· 1O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

6.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 6.5Model 5.8

Oct 14

vs MIL

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Oct 4

vs ATL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Sep 26

@ SF

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Sep 16

@ CIN

UNDER

Strikeouts

-5.5

Sep 11

@ MIA

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

14.5

FanDuel

Model projection

14.7

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Outs

14.8

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

70% (7/10)· 1O streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

14.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 14.5Model 14.7

Oct 14

vs MIL

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Oct 4

vs ATL

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

Sep 26

@ SF

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Sep 16

@ CIN

UNDER

Outs

-11.5

Sep 11

@ MIA

OVER

Outs

+2.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Milwaukee Brewers

No prior starts found against Milwaukee Brewers.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	6.5	-101	-127	-0.7	+0.7	Best Under
FanDuel	6.5	+106	-136	-0.7	+0.7	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

87%

5+ Ks

72.5%

6+ Ks

53.5%

7+ Ks

34.4%Line

8+ Ks

18.2%

9+ Ks

8.6%

10+ Ks

3.7%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	50.5%	19.6%	23.3%	96
Curveball	22%	40%	20.2%	79.9
Changeup	17.8%	39.5%	16.7%	84.7
Slider	9.8%	50%	18.2%	88.8

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

40.7%

2-Strike Foul%

22.9%

2-Strike Contact%

78.2%

Expected Ks

27.5

K Luck

-3.5

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	19	47.4%	52.6%
1-2	34	35.3%	64.7%
2-2	34	41.2%	58.8%
3-2 (full)	21	23.8%	76.2%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Curveball	Changeup	Slider
Jackson ChourioR	20.3%	24.6%	19.3% vs L: 17.3%	20.6% vs L: 16.7%	15.4% vs L: 13.5%	19.8% vs L: 12.1%
Brice TurangL	25.6%	24.6%	19.5% vs L: 13%	19.4% vs L: 17.6%	15% vs L: 22.2%	21.6% vs L: 25%
William ContrerasR	15.8%	14.2%	11% vs L: 9.6%	29.7% vs L: 47.4%	15% vs L: 14.6%	20% vs L: 12.5%
Andrew VaughnR	13.5%	17.5%	12.4% vs L: 17.1%	16.7% vs L: 12.5%	13% vs L: 12.9%	14.7% vs L: 18.8%
Jake BauersL	23.1%	28.5%	18% vs L: 11.9%	26.2% vs L: 0%	17.6% vs L: 21.1%	27% vs L: 17.4%
Garrett MitchellL	28.7%	32%	28.6% vs L: 35.9%	20.8% vs L: 28.6%	27.3% vs L: 6.7%	26.8% vs L: 34.6%
Cooper PrattR	21.4%	16.8%	15.7% vs L: 20.7%	14.3% vs L: 0%	10.8% vs L: 6.7%	13.3% vs L: 0%
Luis LaraS	16.7%	24.1%	10.9% vs L: 11.5%	28.6% vs L: 0%	2.6% vs L: 0%	5.3% vs L: 7.7%
Joey OrtizR	21.3%	18.9%	19.4% vs L: 17.6%	15.2% vs L: 5.9%	17.5% vs L: 16%	19.5% vs L: 23.5%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Curveball	Changeup	Slider
Jackson ChourioR	24.4% vs L: 30.1%	25% vs L: 15.8%	20.4% vs L: 15.7%	31.9% vs L: 35.7%
Brice TurangL	20.7% vs L: 18.2%	21.2% vs L: 22.2%	21.1% vs L: 36.8%	28.4% vs L: 41.8%
William ContrerasR	15.2% vs L: 16.3%	27.9% vs L: 38.5%	23.3% vs L: 20%	26.7% vs L: 21.9%
Andrew VaughnR	9.3% vs L: 8.6%	43.8% vs L: 44.4%	28.6% vs L: 33.3%	28.9% vs L: 17.4%
Jake BauersL	18.2% vs L: 16.7%	40.8% vs L: 26.7%	42.9% vs L: 60%	35% vs L: 31.8%
Garrett MitchellL	25% vs L: 20.8%	28.8% vs L: 33.3%	49.5% vs L: 42.9%	43.2% vs L: 48.8%
Cooper PrattR	14.4% vs L: 22%	13% vs L: 0%	18% vs L: 12.5%	25.3% vs L: 20%
Luis LaraS	11.2% vs L: 6.1%	25% vs L: 8.3%	22.5% vs L: 14.3%	11.6% vs L: 20%
Joey OrtizR	15.6% vs L: 19.2%	40.7% vs L: 10%	24.1% vs L: 24.4%	24% vs L: 31.2%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
William Contreras	3	1	33.3%	.333
Jake Bauers	3	2	66.7%	.000
Jackson Chourio	2	2	100%	.000
Andrew Vaughn	2	1	50%	.000
Joey Ortiz	2	0	0%	.000
Brice Turang	1	1	100%	.000
Garrett Mitchell	1	0	0%	1.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Jackson Chourio	33.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Brice Turang	26.2%	N/A	N/A	N/A
William Contreras	26.2%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Andrew Vaughn	24.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jake Bauers	23.4%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Garrett Mitchell	23.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Cooper Pratt	30.5%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Luis Lara	26.5%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Joey Ortiz	35.8%	N/A	N/A	N/A

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-08-11	Kansas City Royals	3.5	10
2026-08-17	Colorado Rockies	8.9	5
2026-08-23	Pittsburgh Pirates	8.5	6
2026-08-29	Detroit Tigers	7.8	10
2026-09-04	Washington Nationals	6.48	7
2026-09-11	Miami Marlins	8.4	8
2026-09-16	Cincinnati Reds	6.86	1
2026-09-26	San Francisco Giants	6.05	3
2026-10-04	Atlanta Braves	5.71	5
2026-10-14	Milwaukee Brewers	5.8	9

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

✓Pitcher K% is 28.6%

✓Whiff rate is 32%

✓CSW rate is 30.4%

!Opponent K% is 22.5%

!Average pitch count is 83.8

!WHIP is 1.23

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-10-14	Milwaukee Brewers	Home	6	9	81	1.14	—	—
2026-10-04	Atlanta Braves	Home	3.2	5	90	2.18	10	50%
2026-09-26	San Francisco Giants	Away	4	3	77	1.1	12	25%
2026-09-16	Cincinnati Reds	Away	1	1	19	1.09	3	33.3%
2026-09-11	Miami Marlins	Away	5.2	8	101	1.09	16	50%
2026-09-04	Washington Nationals	Home	6	7	100	1.09	18	38.9%
2026-08-29	Detroit Tigers	Away	5	10	99	1.08	13	76.9%
2026-08-23	Pittsburgh Pirates	Home	6	6	94	1.05	15	40%
2026-08-17	Colorado Rockies	Away	6	5	90	1.13	16	31.2%
2026-08-11	Kansas City Royals	Home	6	10	84	1.33	15	66.7%