MLB pitcher strikeout

Griffin Jax

@ Cleveland Guardians2026-10-15FanDuelRHP

Projection

4.6

Ensemble: 4.6

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+1.1

Over 3.5

60% (6/10)· 1U streak

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Recommendation

Over 3.5

FanDuel

Confidence

B+

75/100

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Pitcher K%

26.4%

Whiff%

26.9%

CSW%

32%

WHIP

1.19

Avg IP

4.2

Avg pitches

66.1

Last 5 avg Ks

3.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

20%

Platoon K%

28.7%

Team chase

26.6%

Recent chase

N/A

Recent contact

N/A

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

18.1%

Opp K% vs LHP

18.9%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model projection

4.6

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Ks

4.5

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.0

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

60% (6/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 4.6

Oct 15

@ CLE

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Oct 7

@ NYY

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Sep 26

@ PHI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Sep 20

vs BOS

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Sep 15

vs ATH

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

11.5

DraftKings

Model projection

12.6

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Outs

13.0

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

70% (7/10)· 1O streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

11.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 11.5Model 12.6

Oct 15

@ CLE

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Oct 7

@ NYY

UNDER

Outs

-5.5

Sep 26

@ PHI

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Sep 20

vs BOS

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Sep 15

vs ATH

OVER

Outs

+3.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Cleveland Guardians

No prior starts found against Cleveland Guardians.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	3.5	-148	+116	+1.1	-1.1	Best Over
DraftKings	3.5	-146	+114	+1.1	-1.1	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

54.7%Line

5+ Ks

33.1%

6+ Ks

17%

7+ Ks

6.9%

8+ Ks

2.3%

9+ Ks

0.6%

10+ Ks

0.1%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sinker	26.8%	7.1%	24.4%	94.9
Sweeper	23.6%	26.2%	5.6%	86.7
Changeup	22.7%	43.3%	36.8%	90.2
4-Seam Fastball	18.3%	25.8%	10.9%	95.4
Curveball	8.6%	36.4%	31.2%	84.4

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

46.3%

2-Strike Foul%

22%

2-Strike Contact%

78%

Expected Ks

19.3

K Luck

-0.3

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	18	55.6%	44.4%
1-2	22	54.5%	45.5%
2-2	21	38.1%	61.9%
3-2 (full)	10	20%	80%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sinker	Sweeper	Changeup	4-Seam Fastball	Curveball
Steven KwanL	12.7%	8.3%	6.6% vs R: 4.7%	17.4% vs R: 14.3%	4.3% vs R: 3.3%	7.3% vs R: 5.3%	12.9% vs R: 16%
José RamírezS	7.3%	15%	9.4% vs R: 9.7%	4.8% vs R: 5.7%	13.6% vs R: 14.7%	7.3% vs R: 7.8%	12.5% vs R: 16.1%
Chase DeLauterL	20.1%	12.1%	13.1% vs R: 7.1%	11.1% vs R: 14.8%	13% vs R: 9.4%	17.8% vs R: 14.8%	20.6% vs R: 14.3%
Jo AdellR	22%	24.4%	20.3% vs R: 20.9%	22.8% vs R: 21%	21.8% vs R: 23.9%	17.6% vs R: 19.8%	14.8% vs R: 13.9%
Nathaniel LoweL	20.4%	23.3%	16.4% vs R: 17.6%	25% vs R: 30.8%	13.8% vs R: 12.7%	17.6% vs R: 18.3%	20% vs R: 21.4%
Travis BazzanaL	24.7%	18.8%	10.2% vs R: 5.6%	20.4% vs R: 19.4%	15.4% vs R: 14.7%	14.7% vs R: 12.6%	20.5% vs R: 14.3%
Patrick BaileyS	29.3%	26.1%	19% vs R: 21.6%	19.4% vs R: 15.4%	15.6% vs R: 13.2%	27% vs R: 26.5%	26.5% vs R: 33.3%
Austin HedgesR	12.3%	24.6%	29.2% vs R: 33.3%	20% vs R: 26.3%	19.2%	12.4% vs R: 17.5%	23.1% vs R: 50%
Brayan RocchioS	16.1%	13.5%	10.9% vs R: 8.5%	7.5% vs R: 10.3%	15.1% vs R: 13.9%	14.5% vs R: 13.8%	18% vs R: 24.3%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sinker	Sweeper	Changeup	4-Seam Fastball	Curveball
Steven KwanL	2.5% vs R: 4.5%	12.2% vs R: 4.5%	9.5% vs R: 7%	3.1% vs R: 2.6%	10.3% vs R: 12.5%
José RamírezS	7.9% vs R: 10.2%	7.3% vs R: 9.8%	18.9% vs R: 19.4%	10.6% vs R: 11.7%	17% vs R: 20%
Chase DeLauterL	4.3% vs R: 3.6%	14% vs R: 8.8%	17.5% vs R: 17.1%	12.1% vs R: 9.3%	17.1% vs R: 9.7%
Jo AdellR	16% vs R: 16%	32.6% vs R: 30.1%	37.3% vs R: 27%	20.7% vs R: 22.2%	28.6% vs R: 25%
Nathaniel LoweL	13.6% vs R: 16.9%	37% vs R: 37.5%	20.3% vs R: 18.7%	16.5% vs R: 16.3%	27.7% vs R: 29.5%
Travis BazzanaL	10.4% vs R: 8.6%	30.2% vs R: 39.4%	36.1% vs R: 33.3%	14.6% vs R: 12.4%	31% vs R: 26.1%
Patrick BaileyS	11.2% vs R: 11.5%	40% vs R: 33.3%	25.5% vs R: 23.9%	21.2% vs R: 21.7%	39% vs R: 38.2%
Austin HedgesR	9.9% vs R: 7.9%	37.8% vs R: 50%	36.8%	17.7% vs R: 16.1%	33.3% vs R: 50%
Brayan RocchioS	8.7% vs R: 10.3%	28.6% vs R: 31.2%	31.5% vs R: 27.8%	14% vs R: 11.8%	32.8% vs R: 43.2%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
José Ramírez	19	3	15.8%	.294
Steven Kwan	11	3	27.3%	.000
Austin Hedges	10	2	20%	.300
Nathaniel Lowe	6	2	33.3%	.167
Jo Adell	5	2	40%	.250
Patrick Bailey	5	1	20%	.400
Brayan Rocchio	2	1	50%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Steven Kwan	17%	N/A	N/A	N/A
José Ramírez	27%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chase DeLauter	22.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jo Adell	31.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Nathaniel Lowe	27.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Travis Bazzana	29%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Patrick Bailey	30%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Austin Hedges	22.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Brayan Rocchio	33.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-11	Seattle Mariners	6.5	3
2026-07-17	Boston Red Sox	6.7	6
2026-07-22	Toronto Blue Jays	6.3	5
2026-07-28	Texas Rangers	5.8	10
2026-08-02	Chicago White Sox	6.5	8
2026-09-02	New York Mets	5.04	1
2026-09-09	Atlanta Braves	5.6	2
2026-09-15	Athletics	5.3	7
2026-09-20	Boston Red Sox	5.46	5
2026-09-26	Philadelphia Phillies	4.51	1
2026-10-15	Cleveland Guardians	4.56	2

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 26.4%

!Whiff rate is 26.9%

✓CSW rate is 32%

!Opponent K% is 17.6%

!Average pitch count is 66.1

!WHIP is 1.19

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-10-15	Cleveland Guardians	Away	4	2	67	1.5	—	—
2026-10-07	New York Yankees	Away	2	4	32	1	5	80%
2026-09-26	Philadelphia Phillies	Away	3	1	52	1.18	6	16.7%
2026-09-20	Boston Red Sox	Home	5	5	74	1.19	10	50%
2026-09-15	Athletics	Home	5	7	67	1.2	13	53.8%
2026-09-09	Atlanta Braves	Away	5	2	66	1.24	7	28.6%
2026-09-02	New York Mets	Home	2.2	1	63	1.27	7	14.3%
2026-08-02	Chicago White Sox	Home	5	8	82	1.21	16	50%
2026-07-28	Texas Rangers	Home	5.2	10	93	1.23	15	66.7%
2026-07-22	Toronto Blue Jays	Away	6	5	83	1.22	13	38.5%