MLB pitcher strikeout

Gavin Williams

vs Tampa Bay Rays2026-10-15FanDuelRHP

Projection

7.1

Ensemble: 7.1

Market line

6.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+0.6

Over 6.5

70% (7/10)· 2O streak

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Recommendation

Over 6.5

FanDuel

Confidence

A+

100/100

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Pitcher K%

42%

Whiff%

40.7%

CSW%

36.5%

WHIP

1.14

Avg IP

Avg pitches

85.2

Last 5 avg Ks

7.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

14.3%

Platoon K%

42.4%

Team chase

32.1%

Recent chase

N/A

Recent contact

N/A

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

18.2%

Opp K% vs LHP

15.4%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

6.5

FanDuel

Model projection

7.1

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Ks

8.0

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

70% (7/10)· 2O streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

6.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 6.5Model 7.1

Oct 15

vs TB

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Oct 10

vs CWS

OVER

Strikeouts

+5.5

Oct 8

@ CWS

UNDER

Strikeouts

-5.5

Oct 5

vs CWS

OVER

Strikeouts

+4.5

Sep 25

@ KC

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

16.5

FanDuel

Model projection

16.4

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Outs

13.9

Selected starts

Average margin

-2.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

16.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 16.5Model 16.4

Oct 15

vs TB

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Oct 10

vs CWS

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Oct 8

@ CWS

UNDER

Outs

-13.5

Oct 5

vs CWS

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Sep 25

@ KC

UNDER

Outs

-6.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Tampa Bay Rays

No prior starts found against Tampa Bay Rays.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	6.5	-104	-122	+0.6	-0.6	Best Over
DraftKings	6.5	-104	-122	+0.6	-0.6	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

85.8%

5+ Ks

69.7%

6+ Ks

51%

7+ Ks

32.9%Line

8+ Ks

18.3%

9+ Ks

8.4%

10+ Ks

3.3%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	34.4%	29.3%	26.6%	98.3
Sweeper	31.7%	43.8%	28.9%	87.7
Knuckle Curve	22.2%	37%	24.7%	82.4
Sinker	10.3%	20.4%	29.4%	97.7
Cutter	1.3%	33.3%	33.3%	92.7

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

62.7%

2-Strike Foul%

25.4%

2-Strike Contact%

63.3%

Expected Ks

36.8

K Luck

+0.2

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	29	72.4%	24.1%
1-2	31	61.3%	38.7%
2-2	26	50%	50%
3-2 (full)	14	35.7%	64.3%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Sweeper	Knuckle Curve	Sinker	Cutter
Yandy DíazR	11.9%	15.3%	16.8% vs R: 21%	3.7% vs R: 2.2%	14.3% vs R: 18.8%	11.9% vs R: 9.7%	16.1% vs R: 16.7%
Jonathan ArandaL	27.4%	23.2%	17.1% vs R: 15.7%	17% vs R: 14.3%	21.1% vs R: 22.2%	23.6% vs R: 22.6%	26% vs R: 27.8%
Junior CamineroR	13.8%	20%	16.7% vs R: 17.3%	22.8% vs R: 23.7%	33.3% vs R: 33.3%	16% vs R: 17.5%	18.5% vs R: 14.3%
Victor Mesa Jr.L	13.6%	22.4%	17.7% vs R: 17.8%	12.5% vs R: 16.7%	37.5% vs R: 50%	26.3% vs R: 36.4%	21.4% vs R: 21.4%
Chandler SimpsonL	9.9%	6.7%	5.4% vs R: 5.6%	16.3% vs R: 18.8%	13.3% vs R: 16.7%	10.2% vs R: 3.3%	9.7% vs R: 9.1%
Liam HicksL	14.3%	8.7%	7.6% vs R: 6.1%	7% vs R: 0%	20% vs R: 20%	9.7% vs R: 5.7%	2.9% vs R: 3.3%
Jonny DeLucaR	23.2%	19.4%	18.3% vs R: 13.1%	41.5% vs R: 41.2%	20% vs R: 20%	23.1% vs R: 22.7%	12.5% vs R: 16.7%
Richie PalaciosL	18.8%	16.7%	17.6% vs R: 16.2%	9.1% vs R: 12.5%	25% vs R: 33.3%	19.6% vs R: 16.2%	11.5% vs R: 8.3%
Taylor WallsS	21.3%	25.8%	22.9% vs R: 22.3%	17.9% vs R: 27.8%	8.3% vs R: 14.3%	7.7% vs R: 5.3%	18.5% vs R: 18.2%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Sweeper	Knuckle Curve	Sinker	Cutter
Yandy DíazR	16.6% vs R: 18.9%	7.7% vs R: 7.5%	16.7% vs R: 20%	5.3% vs R: 5.5%	10.7% vs R: 11.7%
Jonathan ArandaL	22.1% vs R: 21.8%	20.8% vs R: 20%	29.4% vs R: 31.2%	7.9% vs R: 2.9%	21.7% vs R: 20.2%
Junior CamineroR	20.4% vs R: 20.6%	31.1% vs R: 32.3%	33.3% vs R: 30.4%	10.1% vs R: 10.2%	12.1% vs R: 14.1%
Victor Mesa Jr.L	24.5% vs R: 25.9%	8.3% vs R: 11.8%	26.7% vs R: 30.8%	8.3% vs R: 14.8%	17.1% vs R: 18.8%
Chandler SimpsonL	3.5% vs R: 3.2%	15.7% vs R: 14.3%	11.1% vs R: 11.1%	3.6% vs R: 1.4%	11.4% vs R: 10.8%
Liam HicksL	4.7% vs R: 4.2%	10.9% vs R: 4.5%	50% vs R: 50%	2.3% vs R: 1.3%	8.2% vs R: 5.6%
Jonny DeLucaR	18.9% vs R: 15.2%	32.7% vs R: 34.1%	33.3% vs R: 33.3%	10.3% vs R: 8%	19.2% vs R: 22.2%
Richie PalaciosL	11.8% vs R: 10.1%	22.5% vs R: 26.5%	28% vs R: 30.4%	5% vs R: 7.7%	11.1% vs R: 7.3%
Taylor WallsS	17.6% vs R: 19.2%	19% vs R: 26.7%	8.3% vs R: 12.5%	10.7% vs R: 9.7%	13.7% vs R: 17%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Yandy Díaz	16	1	6.2%	.467
Junior Caminero	10	3	30%	.200
Richie Palacios	9	1	11.1%	.250
Jonathan Aranda	5	2	40%	.250
Chandler Simpson	4	0	0%	.500
Jonny DeLuca	4	0	0%	.250
Taylor Walls	3	3	100%	.000
Liam Hicks	2	2	100%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Yandy Díaz	31.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jonathan Aranda	30.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Junior Caminero	33%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Victor Mesa Jr.	38.2%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chandler Simpson	31.2%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Liam Hicks	27%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jonny DeLuca	36.4%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Richie Palacios	33.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Taylor Walls	27.4%	N/A	N/A	N/A

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-09	Minnesota Twins	7.3	11
2026-07-18	Pittsburgh Pirates	8.2	11
2026-07-23	Minnesota Twins	7.1	11
2026-07-28	Cincinnati Reds	7.1	12
2026-08-02	Arizona Diamondbacks	6.7	10
2026-08-08	Chicago White Sox	7.6	7
2026-08-14	San Diego Padres	10.7	5
2026-08-20	San Francisco Giants	10.9	11
2026-08-25	Los Angeles Angels	12.2	3
2026-09-01	Toronto Blue Jays	5.01	13
2026-09-06	Detroit Tigers	8.74	11
2026-09-14	Chicago White Sox	7.56	7
2026-09-20	Athletics	8.1	9
2026-09-25	Kansas City Royals	6.37	4
2026-10-05	Chicago White Sox	8.34	11
2026-10-10	Chicago White Sox	7.35	12
2026-10-15	Tampa Bay Rays	7.13	9

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

✓Pitcher K% is 42%

✓Whiff rate is 40.7%

✓CSW rate is 36.5%

!Opponent K% is 17%

!Average pitch count is 85.2

✓WHIP is 1.14

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-10-15	Tampa Bay Rays	Home	5	9	70	0.84	—	—
2026-10-10	Chicago White Sox	Home	5.2	12	94	0.94	15	80%
2026-10-08	Chicago White Sox	Away	1	1	18	1.33	3	33.3%
2026-10-05	Chicago White Sox	Home	5	11	98	1.4	16	68.8%
2026-09-25	Kansas City Royals	Away	3.1	4	74	1.11	10	40%
2026-09-20	Athletics	Home	7	9	89	1.08	15	60%
2026-09-14	Chicago White Sox	Home	5	7	113	1.1	16	43.8%
2026-09-06	Detroit Tigers	Home	6	11	99	1.09	15	73.3%
2026-09-01	Toronto Blue Jays	Home	7	13	97	1.09	17	76.5%
2026-08-25	Los Angeles Angels	Away	1.1	3	62	1.12	10	30%