MLB pitcher strikeout

Tarik Skubal

@ Milwaukee Brewers2026-10-11DraftKingsLHP

Projection

5.8

Ensemble: 6.6

Market line

7.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+1.7

Under 7.5

30% (3/10)· 1U streak

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Recommendation

Under 7.5

DraftKings

Confidence

A+

93/100

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Pitcher K%

28.1%

Whiff%

31.7%

CSW%

33.9%

WHIP

0.93

Avg IP

6.4

Avg pitches

91.2

Last 5 avg Ks

6.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

38.3%

Platoon K%

31.5%

Team chase

27.7%

Recent chase

N/A

Recent contact

N/A

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

24.2%

Opp K% vs LHP

20.8%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

7.5

DraftKings

Model projection

5.8

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Ks

7.1

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.4

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

7.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 7.5Model 5.8

Oct 3

vs ATL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Sep 25

@ SF

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Sep 19

vs SF

UNDER

Strikeouts

-4.5

Sep 14

@ CIN

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Sep 8

vs CIN

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

17.5

FanDuel

Model projection

16.3

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Outs

18.6

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

70% (7/10)· 2O streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

17.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 17.5Model 16.3

Oct 3

vs ATL

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Sep 25

@ SF

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Sep 19

vs SF

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Sep 14

@ CIN

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Sep 8

vs CIN

OVER

Outs

+4.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Milwaukee Brewers

No prior starts found against Milwaukee Brewers.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	7.5	+121	-155	-1.7	+1.7	Best Under
FanDuel	7.5	+124	-160	-1.7	+1.7	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

84.6%

5+ Ks

68.3%

6+ Ks

48.9%

7+ Ks

30.6%

8+ Ks

16.3%Line

9+ Ks

7.7%

10+ Ks

3.5%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	38.3%	24.3%	29.1%	96.8
Changeup	26.3%	44.4%	26.1%	87.9
Sinker	16%	17.6%	18.2%	96.7
Slider	13.4%	21.7%	22.2%	90.1
Curveball	6%	37.9%	30.8%	80.4

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

52.3%

2-Strike Foul%

20.5%

2-Strike Contact%

66.2%

Expected Ks

35.2

K Luck

-1.2

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	30	56.7%	43.3%
1-2	38	55.3%	44.7%
2-2	25	40%	60%
3-2 (full)	12	25%	75%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Sinker	Slider	Curveball
Jackson ChourioR	20.3%	24.6%	19.3% vs L: 17.3%	15.4% vs L: 13.5%	24.7% vs L: 31.2%	19.8% vs L: 12.1%	20.6% vs L: 16.7%
Brice TurangL	25.6%	24.6%	19.5% vs L: 13%	15% vs L: 22.2%	19.4% vs L: 17.3%	21.6% vs L: 25%	19.4% vs L: 17.6%
William ContrerasR	15.8%	14.2%	11% vs L: 9.6%	15% vs L: 14.6%	9.3% vs L: 6.2%	20% vs L: 12.5%	29.7% vs L: 47.4%
Jake BauersL	23.1%	28.5%	18% vs L: 11.9%	17.6% vs L: 21.1%	16.7% vs L: 18.8%	27% vs L: 17.4%	26.2% vs L: 0%
Andrew VaughnR	13.5%	17.5%	12.4% vs L: 17.1%	13% vs L: 12.9%	13.2% vs L: 16.7%	14.7% vs L: 18.8%	16.7% vs L: 12.5%
Garrett MitchellL	28.7%	32%	28.6% vs L: 35.9%	27.3% vs L: 6.7%	25.8% vs L: 21.4%	26.8% vs L: 34.6%	20.8% vs L: 28.6%
Cooper PrattR	21.4%	16.8%	15.7% vs L: 20.7%	10.8% vs L: 6.7%	12.8% vs L: 33.3%	13.3% vs L: 0%	14.3% vs L: 0%
Luis LaraS	16.7%	24.1%	10.9% vs L: 11.5%	2.6% vs L: 0%	41.4% vs L: 38.5%	5.3% vs L: 7.7%	28.6% vs L: 0%
Joey OrtizR	21.3%	18.9%	19.4% vs L: 17.6%	17.5% vs L: 16%	12.5% vs L: 11.1%	19.5% vs L: 23.5%	15.2% vs L: 5.9%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Sinker	Slider	Curveball
Jackson ChourioR	24.4% vs L: 30.1%	20.4% vs L: 15.7%	10% vs L: 2.6%	31.9% vs L: 35.7%	25% vs L: 15.8%
Brice TurangL	20.7% vs L: 18.2%	21.1% vs L: 36.8%	11.1% vs L: 10.1%	28.4% vs L: 41.8%	21.2% vs L: 22.2%
William ContrerasR	15.2% vs L: 16.3%	23.3% vs L: 20%	7.9% vs L: 20%	26.7% vs L: 21.9%	27.9% vs L: 38.5%
Jake BauersL	18.2% vs L: 16.7%	42.9% vs L: 60%	14.2% vs L: 11.4%	35% vs L: 31.8%	40.8% vs L: 26.7%
Andrew VaughnR	9.3% vs L: 8.6%	28.6% vs L: 33.3%	5.4% vs L: 0%	28.9% vs L: 17.4%	43.8% vs L: 44.4%
Garrett MitchellL	25% vs L: 20.8%	49.5% vs L: 42.9%	17.9% vs L: 20%	43.2% vs L: 48.8%	28.8% vs L: 33.3%
Cooper PrattR	14.4% vs L: 22%	18% vs L: 12.5%	16.5% vs L: 25%	25.3% vs L: 20%	13% vs L: 0%
Luis LaraS	11.2% vs L: 6.1%	22.5% vs L: 14.3%	14.5% vs L: 12.9%	11.6% vs L: 20%	25% vs L: 8.3%
Joey OrtizR	15.6% vs L: 19.2%	24.1% vs L: 24.4%	6.9% vs L: 5%	24% vs L: 31.2%	40.7% vs L: 10%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Andrew Vaughn	23	8	34.8%	.227
Joey Ortiz	11	8	72.7%	.000
Jackson Chourio	9	3	33.3%	.333
William Contreras	9	0	0%	.375
Brice Turang	8	4	50%	.250
Jake Bauers	3	0	0%	1.000
Garrett Mitchell	3	1	33.3%	.000
Luis Lara	3	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Jackson Chourio	33.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Brice Turang	26.2%	N/A	N/A	N/A
William Contreras	26.2%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jake Bauers	23.4%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Andrew Vaughn	24.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Garrett Mitchell	23.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Cooper Pratt	30.5%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Luis Lara	26.5%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Joey Ortiz	35.8%	N/A	N/A	N/A

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-07	Athletics	9.6	9
2026-07-12	Philadelphia Phillies	9	5
2026-07-18	Los Angeles Angels	10	9
2026-07-24	Kansas City Royals	10.1	12
2026-07-29	Baltimore Orioles	7.5	6
2026-08-04	Chicago Cubs	6.7	6
2026-08-10	Kansas City Royals	10.3	6
2026-08-16	Milwaukee Brewers	10.5	7
2026-08-22	Pittsburgh Pirates	9.6	11
2026-09-03	St. Louis Cardinals	6.48	6
2026-09-08	Cincinnati Reds	7.08	5
2026-09-14	Cincinnati Reds	7.03	9
2026-09-19	San Francisco Giants	6.55	3
2026-09-25	San Francisco Giants	6.35	10
2026-10-03	Atlanta Braves	5.79	7
2026-10-11	Milwaukee Brewers	5.79	7

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

✓Pitcher K% is 28.1%

✓Whiff rate is 31.7%

✓CSW rate is 33.9%

!Opponent K% is 22.5%

✓Average pitch count is 91.2

✓WHIP is 0.93

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-10-03	Atlanta Braves	Home	6	7	94	0.67	15	46.7%
2026-09-25	San Francisco Giants	Away	7	10	75	0.96	15	66.7%
2026-09-19	San Francisco Giants	Home	5	3	86	0.99	10	30%
2026-09-14	Cincinnati Reds	Away	7	9	90	0.95	11	81.8%
2026-09-08	Cincinnati Reds	Home	7.1	5	94	0.97	14	35.7%
2026-09-03	St. Louis Cardinals	Home	5.2	6	102	0.98	14	42.9%
2026-08-28	Detroit Tigers	Away	6	7	83	0.94	12	58.3%
2026-08-22	Pittsburgh Pirates	Home	7	11	106	0.95	18	61.1%
2026-08-16	Milwaukee Brewers	Home	6	7	109	0.96	17	41.2%
2026-08-10	Kansas City Royals	Home	5	6	95	0.93	16	37.5%