The real methodology
HOW IT WORKS
Every model on this site does the same three things: pull real data, project a real number or probability, and compare it to the live sportsbook line. Nothing here is a gut feeling or a marketing number - it's a projection you can check against the market yourself.
Real data
Player and team stats, matchup context, and sportsbook lines are pulled from the real feeds those sports actually publish - never simulated.
Backtested first
A market only gets a Play/No Play signal after it's been checked against real historical results - most markets are shown as straight information instead.
Graded in public
Every resolved pick across every market is tracked and shown on the Track Record page - no cherry-picking which results get shown.
MLB
The original model on this site. Every pitcher and hitter board projects a real stat line - strikeouts, outs recorded, walks allowed, home runs, hits, hits+runs+RBI, stolen bases - against the live sportsbook number for that game.
- Pitcher form, opposing lineup strength (platoon-adjusted for the real batters he's facing), park factors, bullpen usage, and weather feed the pitching props.
- Batter power and contact quality, recent form, park factors, and the opposing pitcher's real vulnerability feed the hitting props.
- Moneyline and YRFI/NRFI add team strength, starter and bullpen signals, and public betting splits on top of the same real data.
NFL
Spread and Totals compare a real projected margin and combined score against the live sportsbook line for every upcoming game, plus player props across passing, rushing, receiving, and defense.
- Team strength, recent form, and matchup signals drive the game-level margin and total-points projections.
- Player props (passing yards/completions/attempts/interceptions/TDs, rushing yards/attempts, receiving yards/receptions, sacks, tackles, anytime TD) each run their own model against that player's real usage and matchup.
- Play/No Play on Spread only flags games that clear a real, backtested confidence bar - most games are shown for information without a signal.
NBA & WNBA
Spread, Totals, and six player-prop markets (Points, Rebounds, Assists, PRA, Rebounds+Assists, Threes Made) all compare real projections against the live sportsbook line.
- Game-level models use real Four Factors matchup data (both teams' offense against what the other has actually allowed), multi-horizon form, and schedule/travel context (back-to-backs, road trips).
- Spread's Play/No Play checklist is backtested on real historical form and travel data, not a fixed cutoff picked by eye.
- Player props run off each player's own recent usage and the opposing team's real position-level defense.
UFC
Predicts the winner of upcoming UFC fights from each fighter's real fight history and style matchup, with an experimental method-of-victory read alongside it.
- Winner picks are graded and tracked the same as every other market - see the real record below.
- Method of victory is labeled experimental on purpose - it hasn't been backtested to the same bar as the rest of this site yet.
Want the real numbers instead of the description? The Track Record page shows the live graded win/loss for every market, and the MLB Backtesting page breaks strikeout projection accuracy down by confidence grade.
For entertainment and informational purposes only - not betting advice.