MLB pitcher strikeout

Freddy Peralta

vs Cleveland Guardians2026-10-19DraftKingsRHP

Projection

4.2

Ensemble: 4.4

Market line

4.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.3

Under 4.5

30% (3/10)· 2U streak

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Recommendation

Under 4.5

DraftKings

Confidence

65/100

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Pitcher K%

20.9%

Whiff%

27.7%

CSW%

25.3%

WHIP

1.19

Avg IP

4.9

Avg pitches

Last 5 avg Ks

2.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

7.7%

Platoon K%

20.1%

Team chase

28%

Recent chase

N/A

Recent contact

N/A

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

16.6%

Opp K% vs LHP

17.5%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

4.5

DraftKings

Model projection

4.2

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.7

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.8

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 2U streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

4.5

0.527

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Under

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Line 4.5Model 4.2

Oct 19

vs CLE

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Oct 17

@ CLE

UNDER

Strikeouts

-4.5

Oct 13

vs CLE

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Oct 5

vs NYY

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Sep 25

@ PHI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

13.5

FanDuel

Model projection

15.2

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

80%

8 of 10 overs

Average Outs

14.2

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.7

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

80% (8/10)· 2U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

13.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 13.5Model 15.2

Oct 19

vs CLE

UNDER

Outs

-7.5

Oct 17

@ CLE

UNDER

Outs

-11.5

Oct 13

vs CLE

OVER

Outs

+4.5

Oct 5

vs NYY

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Sep 25

@ PHI

OVER

Outs

+2.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Cleveland Guardians

No prior starts found against Cleveland Guardians.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	4.5	+119	-152	-0.3	+0.3	Best Under
FanDuel	4.5	+128	-164	-0.3	+0.3	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

61.9%

5+ Ks

41%Line

6+ Ks

21.9%

7+ Ks

10.3%

8+ Ks

3.8%

9+ Ks

1.2%

10+ Ks

0.4%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	52.7%	18.1%	12.3%	94.7
Changeup	28.6%	28.1%	17.3%	87.6
Curveball	11.8%	16%	20%	80.1
Sweeper	6.9%	30%	19%	83.5

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

39.6%

2-Strike Foul%

26.9%

2-Strike Contact%

75.3%

Expected Ks

18.5

K Luck

+0.5

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	21	33.3%	66.7%
1-2	32	37.5%	62.5%
2-2	28	39.3%	60.7%
3-2 (full)	17	35.3%	64.7%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Curveball	Sweeper
Steven KwanL	12.7%	8.3%	7.3% vs R: 5.4%	4.3% vs R: 3.3%	12.9% vs R: 16%	17.4% vs R: 14.3%
José RamírezS	7.3%	15%	7.3% vs R: 7.8%	13.6% vs R: 14.7%	12.5% vs R: 16.1%	4.8% vs R: 5.7%
Chase DeLauterL	20.1%	12.1%	17.8% vs R: 14.8%	13% vs R: 9.4%	20.6% vs R: 14.3%	11.1% vs R: 14.8%
Jo AdellR	22%	24.4%	17.6% vs R: 19.8%	21.8% vs R: 23.9%	14.8% vs R: 13.9%	22.8% vs R: 21%
Nathaniel LoweL	20.4%	23.3%	17.6% vs R: 18.3%	13.8% vs R: 12.7%	20% vs R: 21.4%	25% vs R: 30.8%
Travis BazzanaL	24.7%	18.8%	14.7% vs R: 12.6%	15.4% vs R: 14.7%	20.5% vs R: 14.3%	20.4% vs R: 19.4%
Patrick BaileyS	29.3%	26.1%	27% vs R: 26.5%	15.6% vs R: 13.2%	26.5% vs R: 33.3%	19.4% vs R: 15.4%
Petey HalpinL	20.8%	17%	22.2% vs R: 16.7%	15.8% vs R: 17.6%	18.2% vs R: 18.2%	21.7% vs R: 28.6%
Brayan RocchioS	16.1%	13.5%	14.5% vs R: 13.8%	15.1% vs R: 13.9%	18% vs R: 24.3%	7.5% vs R: 10.3%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Curveball	Sweeper
Steven KwanL	3.1% vs R: 2.6%	9.5% vs R: 7%	10.3% vs R: 12.5%	12.2% vs R: 4.5%
José RamírezS	10.6% vs R: 11.8%	18.9% vs R: 19.4%	17% vs R: 20%	7.3% vs R: 9.8%
Chase DeLauterL	12.1% vs R: 9.3%	17.5% vs R: 17.1%	17.1% vs R: 9.7%	14% vs R: 8.8%
Jo AdellR	20.7% vs R: 22.2%	37.3% vs R: 27%	28.6% vs R: 25%	32.6% vs R: 30.1%
Nathaniel LoweL	16.5% vs R: 16.3%	20.3% vs R: 18.7%	27.7% vs R: 29.5%	37% vs R: 37.5%
Travis BazzanaL	14.6% vs R: 12.4%	36.1% vs R: 33.3%	31% vs R: 26.1%	30.2% vs R: 39.4%
Patrick BaileyS	21.2% vs R: 21.7%	25.5% vs R: 23.9%	39% vs R: 38.2%	40% vs R: 33.3%
Petey HalpinL	25.4% vs R: 24.8%	11.4% vs R: 12.5%	12.5% vs R: 12.5%	21.2% vs R: 18.8%
Brayan RocchioS	14% vs R: 11.8%	31.5% vs R: 27.8%	32.8% vs R: 43.2%	28.6% vs R: 31.2%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Steven Kwan	9	0	0%	.111
José Ramírez	9	0	0%	.333
Nathaniel Lowe	8	2	25%	.167
Patrick Bailey	6	3	50%	.333
Jo Adell	3	2	66.7%	.000
Brayan Rocchio	2	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Steven Kwan	17.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A
José Ramírez	27%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chase DeLauter	22.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jo Adell	31.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Nathaniel Lowe	27.4%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Travis Bazzana	28.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Patrick Bailey	29.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Petey Halpin	35.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Brayan Rocchio	32.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-11	Boston Red Sox	3.9	6
2026-07-20	Milwaukee Brewers	4	6
2026-07-26	Los Angeles Dodgers	5.2	3
2026-08-04	Colorado Rockies	4.7	3
2026-08-10	Athletics	3.7	5
2026-08-16	Baltimore Orioles	4.3	2
2026-08-21	Baltimore Orioles	3.6	6
2026-08-26	Detroit Tigers	3.7	4
2026-09-01	New York Mets	4.63	7
2026-09-08	Atlanta Braves	4.63	2
2026-09-13	Houston Astros	4.62	4
2026-09-19	Boston Red Sox	4.53	6
2026-09-25	Philadelphia Phillies	4.31	4
2026-10-05	New York Yankees	5.03	3
2026-10-13	Cleveland Guardians	4.05	6
2026-10-19	Cleveland Guardians	4.21	3

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 20.9%

!Whiff rate is 27.7%

!CSW rate is 25.3%

!Opponent K% is 17.6%

!Average pitch count is 77

!WHIP is 1.19

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-10-19	Cleveland Guardians	Home	2	1	29	0.9	—	—
2026-10-17	Cleveland Guardians	Away	0.2	0	9	0.97	0	—
2026-10-13	Cleveland Guardians	Home	6	6	99	0.94	14	42.9%
2026-10-05	New York Yankees	Home	4.2	3	66	0.86	8	37.5%
2026-09-25	Philadelphia Phillies	Away	5.1	4	93	1.33	11	36.4%
2026-09-19	Boston Red Sox	Home	5.2	6	97	1.33	15	40%
2026-09-13	Houston Astros	Home	5	4	86	1.34	12	33.3%
2026-09-08	Atlanta Braves	Away	6	2	92	1.36	12	16.7%
2026-09-01	New York Mets	Home	6	7	74	1.37	9	77.8%
2026-08-26	Detroit Tigers	Away	6	4	81	1.41	10	40%