MLB pitcher strikeout

Sean Burke

@ Cleveland Guardians2026-10-10FanDuelRHP

Projection

4.5

Ensemble: 4.8

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+1.0

Over 3.5

80% (8/10)· 6O streak

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Recommendation

Over 3.5

FanDuel

Confidence

B+

73/100

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Pitcher K%

29.4%

Whiff%

28.2%

CSW%

29.8%

WHIP

1.09

Avg IP

4.5

Avg pitches

84.9

Last 5 avg Ks

6.0

Games logged

Matchup K%

22.4%

Platoon K%

25.4%

Team chase

28.2%

Recent chase

N/A

Recent contact

N/A

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

16.6%

Opp K% vs LHP

18.3%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model projection

4.5

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

80%

8 of 10 overs

Average Ks

4.9

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.4

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

80% (8/10)· 6O streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 4.5

Oct 10

@ CLE

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Oct 5

@ CLE

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Sep 30

@ HOU

OVER

Strikeouts

+4.5

Sep 25

vs COL

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Sep 19

vs DET

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

12.5

DraftKings

Model projection

15.1

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Outs

14.0

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

70% (7/10)· 2O streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

12.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 12.5Model 15.1

Oct 10

@ CLE

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Oct 5

@ CLE

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Sep 30

@ HOU

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Sep 25

vs COL

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Sep 19

vs DET

OVER

Outs

+5.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Cleveland Guardians

No prior starts found against Cleveland Guardians.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	3.5	-142	+112	+1.0	-1.0	Best Over
DraftKings	3.5	-135	+106	+1.0	-1.0	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

66.4%Line

5+ Ks

44.5%

6+ Ks

25.6%

7+ Ks

12.1%

8+ Ks

9+ Ks

1.9%

10+ Ks

0.6%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	36.4%	19.3%	15.1%	94.7
Knuckle Curve	18.5%	31.4%	21.3%	77.9
Cutter	16.7%	25.8%	22.9%	89.4
Slider	15.7%	33%	21.3%	85.8
Sinker	11.8%	10%	10.5%	94.6
Changeup	0.9%	25%	—	86

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

47.6%

2-Strike Foul%

28.5%

2-Strike Contact%

72.9%

Expected Ks

27.8

K Luck

+2.2

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	19	52.6%	47.4%
1-2	41	48.8%	51.2%
2-2	31	51.6%	45.2%
3-2 (full)	17	41.2%	52.9%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Knuckle Curve	Cutter	Slider	Sinker	Changeup
Steven KwanL	12.7%	8.3%	7.3% vs R: 5.3%	28.6% vs R: 28.6%	9.8% vs R: 12.5%	12.3% vs R: 13.7%	6.6% vs R: 4.7%	4.3% vs R: 3.3%
José RamírezS	7.3%	15%	7.3% vs R: 7.8%	0% vs R: 0%	17.5% vs R: 19.1%	12.8% vs R: 14.3%	9.4% vs R: 9.7%	13.6% vs R: 14.7%
Chase DeLauterL	20.1%	12.1%	17.8% vs R: 14.8%	8.3% vs R: 8.3%	15% vs R: 16.7%	14.9% vs R: 21.9%	13.1% vs R: 7.1%	13% vs R: 9.4%
Jo AdellR	22%	24.4%	17.6% vs R: 19.8%	21.4% vs R: 23.1%	12.5% vs R: 10%	19.9% vs R: 21.7%	20.3% vs R: 20.9%	21.8% vs R: 23.9%
Nathaniel LoweL	20.4%	23.3%	17.6% vs R: 18.3%	0% vs R: 0%	24% vs R: 19%	17% vs R: 14.6%	16.4% vs R: 17.6%	13.8% vs R: 12.7%
Travis BazzanaL	24.7%	18.8%	14.7% vs R: 12.6%	0% vs R: 0%	18.9% vs R: 21.9%	20.8% vs R: 23.6%	10.2% vs R: 5.6%	15.4% vs R: 14.7%
Patrick BaileyS	29.3%	26.1%	27% vs R: 26.5%	13.3% vs R: 16.7%	16% vs R: 11.1%	21.1% vs R: 21.7%	19% vs R: 21.6%	15.6% vs R: 13.2%
Petey HalpinL	22.2%	17.1%	23% vs R: 17.4%	—	30.8% vs R: 30%	23.1% vs R: 16.7%	18.2% vs R: 23.5%	16.7% vs R: 18.8%
Brayan RocchioS	16.1%	13.5%	14.5% vs R: 13.8%	16.7% vs R: 16.7%	7.7% vs R: 7.1%	13.4% vs R: 6.4%	10.9% vs R: 8.5%	15.1% vs R: 13.9%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Knuckle Curve	Cutter	Slider	Sinker	Changeup
Steven KwanL	3.1% vs R: 2.6%	22.2% vs R: 14.3%	10.3% vs R: 7.4%	10.9% vs R: 4.4%	2.5% vs R: 4.5%	9.5% vs R: 7%
José RamírezS	10.6% vs R: 11.7%	0% vs R: 0%	13.1% vs R: 13.3%	18% vs R: 18.3%	7.9% vs R: 10.2%	18.9% vs R: 19.4%
Chase DeLauterL	12.1% vs R: 9.3%	15.4% vs R: 15.4%	14.6% vs R: 12.9%	22.9% vs R: 21.2%	4.3% vs R: 3.6%	17.5% vs R: 17.1%
Jo AdellR	20.7% vs R: 22.2%	23.1% vs R: 33.3%	22.1% vs R: 20%	36.2% vs R: 37.4%	16% vs R: 16%	37.3% vs R: 27%
Nathaniel LoweL	16.5% vs R: 16.3%	9.1% vs R: 14.3%	19.4% vs R: 14%	28.3% vs R: 22.2%	13.6% vs R: 16.9%	20.3% vs R: 18.7%
Travis BazzanaL	14.6% vs R: 12.4%	25% vs R: 25%	24.7% vs R: 23.7%	33.3% vs R: 33.8%	10.4% vs R: 8.6%	36.1% vs R: 33.3%
Patrick BaileyS	21.2% vs R: 21.7%	25% vs R: 28.6%	24.1% vs R: 23.1%	32.1% vs R: 33.8%	11.2% vs R: 11.5%	25.5% vs R: 23.9%
Petey HalpinL	25.6% vs R: 25%	—	27.5% vs R: 26.5%	38.6% vs R: 37.5%	21% vs R: 22%	9.5% vs R: 10.5%
Brayan RocchioS	14% vs R: 11.8%	33.3% vs R: 29.4%	16.8% vs R: 15.9%	27.2% vs R: 23.7%	8.7% vs R: 10.3%	31.5% vs R: 27.8%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Steven Kwan	16	1	6.2%	.308
Brayan Rocchio	14	3	21.4%	.286
José Ramírez	10	3	30%	.000
Travis Bazzana	9	4	44.4%	.111
Jo Adell	7	3	42.9%	.286
Chase DeLauter	5	2	40%	.250
Nathaniel Lowe	2	1	50%	.000
Patrick Bailey	2	1	50%	.500
Petey Halpin	2	0	0%	1.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Steven Kwan	17%	N/A	N/A	N/A
José Ramírez	27%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chase DeLauter	22.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jo Adell	31.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Nathaniel Lowe	27.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Travis Bazzana	28.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Patrick Bailey	29.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Petey Halpin	36.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Brayan Rocchio	33.5%	N/A	N/A	N/A

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-10	Athletics	8.8	9
2026-07-19	Toronto Blue Jays	9.2	5
2026-07-25	Houston Astros	6.9	10
2026-07-30	New York Yankees	7.3	10
2026-08-05	Boston Red Sox	6.9	4
2026-08-11	Cincinnati Reds	9.8	8
2026-08-16	Detroit Tigers	10.2	2
2026-08-21	New York Mets	9	4
2026-08-26	Texas Rangers	7.2	3
2026-09-01	Houston Astros	4.96	6
2026-09-08	Pittsburgh Pirates	5.84	2
2026-09-19	Detroit Tigers	5.18	5
2026-09-25	Colorado Rockies	4.3	7
2026-09-30	Houston Astros	4.82	8
2026-10-10	Cleveland Guardians	4.46	4

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

✓Pitcher K% is 29.4%

✓Whiff rate is 28.2%

!CSW rate is 29.8%

!Opponent K% is 17.6%

!Average pitch count is 84.9

✓WHIP is 1.09

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-10-10	Cleveland Guardians	Away	5	4	71	0.7	—	—
2026-10-05	Cleveland Guardians	Away	5.1	6	83	0.64	12	50%
2026-09-30	Houston Astros	Away	4	8	72	1	10	80%
2026-09-25	Colorado Rockies	Home	5.1	7	89	1.2	15	46.7%
2026-09-19	Detroit Tigers	Home	6	5	97	1.2	13	38.5%
2026-09-14	Cleveland Guardians	Away	5	4	94	1.2	13	30.8%
2026-09-08	Pittsburgh Pirates	Home	1.1	2	48	1.2	6	33.3%
2026-09-01	Houston Astros	Away	5.2	6	104	1.14	15	40%
2026-08-26	Texas Rangers	Home	3	3	92	1.15	10	30%
2026-08-21	New York Mets	Home	6	4	98	1.11	13	30.8%