MLB pitcher strikeout

Gavin Williams

vs Chicago White Sox2026-10-10DraftKingsRHP

Projection

7.3

Ensemble: 8.4

Market line

6.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.8

Over 6.5

70% (7/10)· 2O streak

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this pitcher's projection, market line, and model edge.

Recommendation

Over 6.5

DraftKings

Confidence

A+

100/100

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this pitcher's recommendation and confidence grade.

Pitcher K%

35.2%

Whiff%

39.5%

CSW%

34.9%

WHIP

1.16

Avg IP

4.5

Avg pitches

81.2

Last 5 avg Ks

7.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

29.3%

Platoon K%

41.6%

Team chase

29.2%

Recent chase

N/A

Recent contact

N/A

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

27.8%

Opp K% vs LHP

25.2%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see matchup-specific stats.

Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

6.5

DraftKings

Model projection

7.3

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Ks

8.0

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

70% (7/10)· 2O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

6.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 6.5Model 7.3

Oct 15

vs TB

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Oct 10

vs CWS

OVER

Strikeouts

+5.5

Oct 8

@ CWS

UNDER

Strikeouts

-5.5

Oct 5

vs CWS

OVER

Strikeouts

+4.5

Sep 25

@ KC

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

14.5

DraftKings

Model projection

16.3

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Outs

13.9

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

70% (7/10)· 2O streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

14.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 14.5Model 16.3

Oct 15

vs TB

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Oct 10

vs CWS

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Oct 8

@ CWS

UNDER

Outs

-11.5

Oct 5

vs CWS

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Sep 25

@ KC

UNDER

Outs

-4.5

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see projection history vs. results.

Analytics

Career vs. Chicago White Sox

No prior starts found against Chicago White Sox.

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see career history vs. today's opponent.

Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	6.5	-124	-102	+0.8	-0.8	Best Over
FanDuel	6.5	-146	+114	+0.8	-0.8	—

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see sportsbook lines and edges.

Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

94.4%

5+ Ks

87.5%

6+ Ks

74.7%

7+ Ks

58.3%Line

8+ Ks

40.3%

9+ Ks

24.8%

10+ Ks

12.8%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this pitcher's strikeout ladder.

Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	34.4%	29.3%	26.6%	98.3
Sweeper	31.7%	43.8%	28.9%	87.7
Knuckle Curve	22.2%	37%	24.7%	82.4
Sinker	10.3%	20.4%	29.4%	97.7
Cutter	1.3%	33.3%	33.3%	92.7

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

53.3%

2-Strike Foul%

25%

2-Strike Contact%

68.4%

Expected Ks

36.7

K Luck

-4.7

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	24	62.5%	37.5%
1-2	32	56.2%	43.8%
2-2	28	39.3%	57.1%
3-2 (full)	18	33.3%	66.7%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Sweeper	Knuckle Curve	Sinker	Cutter
Sam AntonacciL	20.9%	13.1%	14.1% vs R: 13.2%	14.3% vs R: 10.8%	6.2% vs R: 0%	14.9% vs R: 17.4%	14% vs R: 12.8%
Kyle TeelL	35.9%	35.2%	28.1% vs R: 22%	26.3% vs R: 30.8%	50% vs R: 50%	21.4% vs R: 26.7%	18.2% vs R: 12.5%
Miguel VargasR	16.8%	18.3%	17.3% vs R: 16.9%	11.2% vs R: 9.2%	5.9% vs R: 7.1%	20% vs R: 17.9%	17.4% vs R: 19.4%
Munetaka MurakamiL	34.9%	35.7%	26.5% vs R: 28.4%	24.7% vs R: 33.3%	12.5% vs R: 0%	29.6% vs R: 28.8%	20% vs R: 21.1%
Andrew BenintendiL	37.5%	22.3%	21.9% vs R: 20.8%	8.1% vs R: 7.1%	27.3% vs R: 27.3%	21.1% vs R: 21.3%	19.4% vs R: 21.2%
Tristan PetersL	19.4%	18.2%	16% vs R: 15.9%	9.7% vs R: 9.1%	5.9% vs R: 5.9%	14.3% vs R: 9.1%	19.4% vs R: 19.4%
Chase MeidrothR	16.8%	23.9%	20.9% vs R: 22.9%	24.1% vs R: 26.2%	18.8% vs R: 13.3%	13.8% vs R: 15.4%	10.9% vs R: 13.8%
Colson MontgomeryL	29.9%	38%	33.3% vs R: 33.9%	34.9% vs R: 39.4%	35.7% vs R: 33.3%	27.5% vs R: 21.6%	26.7% vs R: 25%
Brenton DoyleR	28.9%	35.7%	23.4% vs R: 25.7%	31.8% vs R: 25%	—	23.1% vs R: 27.3%	66.7% vs R: 62.5%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see the lineup-vs-arsenal matchup breakdown.

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Sweeper	Knuckle Curve	Sinker	Cutter
Sam AntonacciL	11.2% vs R: 11.4%	16.3% vs R: 10.3%	6.7% vs R: 7.1%	8.3% vs R: 10.4%	13.9% vs R: 13.3%
Kyle TeelL	34% vs R: 27.4%	33.3% vs R: 33.3%	40% vs R: 40%	13% vs R: 13%	50% vs R: 50%
Miguel VargasR	18.4% vs R: 19.8%	16.7% vs R: 17.7%	10% vs R: 5.9%	8.3% vs R: 7.2%	27.4% vs R: 28%
Munetaka MurakamiL	39.2% vs R: 39.6%	39.8% vs R: 41%	38.5% vs R: 55.6%	28.7% vs R: 28.8%	24.6% vs R: 20.5%
Andrew BenintendiL	22% vs R: 21.7%	19.3% vs R: 19.1%	23.8% vs R: 23.8%	18.1% vs R: 18.1%	28.7% vs R: 27.1%
Tristan PetersL	17.2% vs R: 17%	15.4% vs R: 13.8%	22.2% vs R: 22.2%	13.3% vs R: 9.8%	13.8% vs R: 13.1%
Chase MeidrothR	14.8% vs R: 17.3%	26% vs R: 27.7%	19% vs R: 15.8%	7.4% vs R: 8.1%	16.8% vs R: 21.2%
Colson MontgomeryL	29.9% vs R: 29.8%	42.1% vs R: 52.9%	47.8% vs R: 47.1%	25.5% vs R: 23.2%	25% vs R: 23.6%
Brenton DoyleR	19.1% vs R: 13.1%	45.5% vs R: 34.8%	—	15.7% vs R: 15.8%	22.2% vs R: 24%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see the lineup-vs-arsenal whiff matchup breakdown.

Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Miguel Vargas	17	3	17.6%	.429
Andrew Benintendi	15	2	13.3%	.385
Sam Antonacci	12	2	16.7%	.091
Colson Montgomery	11	8	72.7%	.000
Kyle Teel	10	6	60%	.000
Tristan Peters	9	2	22.2%	.143
Chase Meidroth	8	1	12.5%	.250
Munetaka Murakami	6	3	50%	.200

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Sam Antonacci	20.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Kyle Teel	33.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Miguel Vargas	20.8%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Munetaka Murakami	22.8%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Andrew Benintendi	36.2%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Tristan Peters	30.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chase Meidroth	32%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Colson Montgomery	32.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Brenton Doyle	34.2%	N/A	N/A	N/A

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see batter-vs-pitcher history and lineup chase rate.

Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-09	Minnesota Twins	7.3	11
2026-07-18	Pittsburgh Pirates	8.2	11
2026-07-23	Minnesota Twins	7.1	11
2026-07-28	Cincinnati Reds	7.1	12
2026-08-02	Arizona Diamondbacks	6.7	10
2026-08-08	Chicago White Sox	7.6	7
2026-08-14	San Diego Padres	10.7	5
2026-08-20	San Francisco Giants	10.9	11
2026-08-25	Los Angeles Angels	12.2	3
2026-09-01	Toronto Blue Jays	5.01	13
2026-09-06	Detroit Tigers	8.74	11
2026-09-14	Chicago White Sox	7.56	7
2026-09-20	Athletics	8.1	9
2026-09-25	Kansas City Royals	6.37	4
2026-10-05	Chicago White Sox	8.34	11
2026-10-10	Chicago White Sox	7.35	12
2026-10-15	Tampa Bay Rays	7.13	9

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see projection history and model reasoning.

Analytics

Why This Projection?

✓Pitcher K% is 35.2%

✓Whiff rate is 39.5%

✓CSW rate is 34.9%

✓Opponent K% is 24.8%

!Average pitch count is 81.2

!WHIP is 1.16

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see why this projection was made.

Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-10-15	Tampa Bay Rays	Home	5	9	70	0.84	—	—
2026-10-10	Chicago White Sox	Home	5.2	12	94	0.94	15	80%
2026-10-08	Chicago White Sox	Away	1	1	18	1.33	3	33.3%
2026-10-05	Chicago White Sox	Home	5	11	98	1.4	16	68.8%
2026-09-25	Kansas City Royals	Away	3.1	4	74	1.11	10	40%
2026-09-20	Athletics	Home	7	9	89	1.08	15	60%
2026-09-14	Chicago White Sox	Home	5	7	113	1.1	16	43.8%
2026-09-06	Detroit Tigers	Home	6	11	99	1.09	15	73.3%
2026-09-01	Toronto Blue Jays	Home	7	13	97	1.09	17	76.5%
2026-08-25	Los Angeles Angels	Away	1.1	3	62	1.12	10	30%