MLB pitcher strikeout

Walker Buehler

vs Milwaukee Brewers2026-10-07DraftKingsRHP

Projection

4.3

Ensemble: 3.8

Market line

2.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+1.8

Over 2.5

90% (9/10)· 2O streak

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Recommendation

Over 2.5

DraftKings

Confidence

65/100

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Pitcher K%

21.3%

Whiff%

18.2%

CSW%

25.4%

WHIP

1.36

Avg IP

4.9

Avg pitches

79.1

Last 5 avg Ks

4.0

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

18.6%

Team chase

28.3%

Recent chase

20.9%

Recent contact

83.3%

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

22.5%

Opp K% vs LHP

20.9%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

2.5

DraftKings

Model projection

4.3

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

90%

9 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.9

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.4

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

90% (9/10)· 2O streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

2.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 2.5Model 4.3

Sep 26

vs ARI

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Sep 20

vs MIA

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Sep 15

@ COL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Sep 9

vs WSH

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Sep 4

vs NYY

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

11.5

FanDuel

Model projection

13.8

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

80%

8 of 10 overs

Average Outs

14.8

Selected starts

Average margin

+3.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

80% (8/10)· 1U streakLM ↑ +3

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

11.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 11.5Model 13.8

Sep 26

vs ARI

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Sep 20

vs MIA

OVER

Outs

+8.5

Sep 15

@ COL

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Sep 9

vs WSH

UNDER

Outs

-4.5

Sep 4

vs NYY

OVER

Outs

+3.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Milwaukee Brewers

No prior starts found against Milwaukee Brewers.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	2.5	-129	+101	+1.8	-1.8	Best Over
FanDuel	2.5	-150	+118	+1.8	-1.8	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

68.7%

5+ Ks

47.6%

6+ Ks

27.7%

7+ Ks

14%

8+ Ks

6.1%

9+ Ks

2.4%

10+ Ks

0.7%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Cutter	25.6%	10%	4.8%	90.8
Sinker	23.3%	13%	20%	94.4
4-Seam Fastball	18.9%	18.9%	16.9%	94.1
Slider	10.6%	17.4%	13.5%	87.3
Changeup	9.6%	25.5%	17.1%	89.6
Sweeper	6.5%	20.5%	11.8%	81.9
Knuckle Curve	5.3%	34.5%	18.8%	78.5

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

35.7%

2-Strike Foul%

22.1%

2-Strike Contact%

80.9%

Expected Ks

18.9

K Luck

+1.1

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	20	50%	45%
1-2	27	33.3%	66.7%
2-2	30	26.7%	70%
3-2 (full)	18	27.8%	72.2%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Cutter	Sinker	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Changeup	Sweeper	Knuckle Curve
Jackson ChourioR	20.3%	24.6%	25.7% vs R: 24%	24.7% vs R: 23.4%	19.3% vs R: 20.5%	19.6% vs R: 22.8%	15.4% vs R: 17.9%	14.7% vs R: 16.1%	6.7% vs R: 6.7%
Christian YelichL	26.2%	27.2%	22.8% vs R: 22%	19% vs R: 16.7%	17.3% vs R: 18.2%	32.2% vs R: 34.6%	13.7% vs R: 14.7%	25.9% vs R: 25.8%	28.6% vs R: 28.6%
William ContrerasR	15.8%	14.2%	18.4% vs R: 22.2%	9.3% vs R: 10.2%	11% vs R: 11.6%	20% vs R: 23%	15% vs R: 15.8%	16.3% vs R: 15%	18.2% vs R: 22.2%
Brice TurangL	25.6%	24.6%	12.2% vs R: 3.7%	19.4% vs R: 21.4%	19.5% vs R: 22.5%	21.6% vs R: 18.8%	15% vs R: 13.4%	17.5% vs R: 17.9%	16.7% vs R: 22.2%
Jake BauersL	23.1%	28.5%	25.6% vs R: 26.7%	16.7% vs R: 14.3%	18% vs R: 20.8%	27% vs R: 33.3%	17.6% vs R: 16.7%	27.1% vs R: 29.4%	35.3% vs R: 35.3%
Cooper PrattR	21.4%	16.8%	6.2% vs R: 0%	12.8% vs R: 3.7%	15.7% vs R: 13.9%	13.3% vs R: 16.7%	10.8% vs R: 13.6%	18.2% vs R: 16.2%	—
Sal FrelickL	10.2%	9.8%	10.7% vs R: 14.3%	10.3% vs R: 9.5%	10% vs R: 9.6%	13.5% vs R: 14.3%	8.3% vs R: 4.3%	8.9% vs R: 0%	0% vs R: 0%
Garrett MitchellL	28.7%	32%	18% vs R: 18.4%	25.8% vs R: 29.4%	28.6% vs R: 27.1%	26.8% vs R: 23.9%	27.3% vs R: 33.3%	29.4% vs R: 39.1%	12.5% vs R: 6.7%
Joey OrtizR	21.3%	18.9%	7.1% vs R: 11.1%	12.5% vs R: 13.3%	19.4% vs R: 21.1%	19.5% vs R: 16.3%	17.5% vs R: 20%	10.4% vs R: 7.7%	50% vs R: 40%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Cutter	Sinker	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Changeup	Sweeper	Knuckle Curve
Jackson ChourioR	28.3% vs R: 28.4%	10% vs R: 11.8%	24.4% vs R: 21.7%	31.9% vs R: 30.4%	20.4% vs R: 30.3%	27.9% vs R: 30.7%	28.6% vs R: 27.3%
Christian YelichL	28.3% vs R: 26.3%	14.5% vs R: 22.2%	22.3% vs R: 23.5%	44.4% vs R: 44%	19.7% vs R: 21.7%	34.6% vs R: 39.6%	40% vs R: 40%
William ContrerasR	20.4% vs R: 26.5%	7.9% vs R: 5.3%	15.2% vs R: 14.6%	26.7% vs R: 28.1%	23.3% vs R: 32%	25.2% vs R: 24.2%	28.6% vs R: 27.3%
Brice TurangL	17.3% vs R: 7.4%	11.1% vs R: 12.4%	20.7% vs R: 21.7%	28.4% vs R: 19.8%	21.1% vs R: 18.3%	24.6% vs R: 20.9%	12.5% vs R: 15.4%
Jake BauersL	33.3% vs R: 36.6%	14.2% vs R: 17%	18.2% vs R: 18.8%	35% vs R: 36.5%	42.9% vs R: 39.8%	33.8% vs R: 31.6%	34.8% vs R: 36.4%
Cooper PrattR	18.4% vs R: 20%	16.5% vs R: 14.3%	14.4% vs R: 10.4%	25.3% vs R: 26.2%	18% vs R: 23.1%	22.4% vs R: 20.9%	—
Sal FrelickL	9.2% vs R: 7.1%	2.7% vs R: 1.7%	8.6% vs R: 7.3%	8.6% vs R: 10.5%	8.6% vs R: 7.1%	14.9% vs R: 0%	0% vs R: 0%
Garrett MitchellL	36.8% vs R: 38.4%	17.9% vs R: 14.9%	25% vs R: 25.7%	43.2% vs R: 40.5%	49.5% vs R: 50%	40.4% vs R: 41.2%	27.8% vs R: 23.5%
Joey OrtizR	10.4% vs R: 22.7%	6.9% vs R: 7.7%	15.6% vs R: 13.1%	24% vs R: 20.3%	24.1% vs R: 23.1%	20% vs R: 21.8%	75% vs R: 66.7%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Christian Yelich	6	2	33.3%	.333
William Contreras	5	1	20%	.000
Brice Turang	5	1	20%	.250
Jake Bauers	5	1	20%	.200
Garrett Mitchell	5	1	20%	.333
Jackson Chourio	4	0	0%	.333
Sal Frelick	2	0	0%	.500
Joey Ortiz	2	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Jackson Chourio	34.7%	25%	N/A	89.5%
Christian Yelich	25.8%	22.2%	N/A	63.2%
William Contreras	26.8%	N/A	N/A	100%
Brice Turang	25.8%	8.7%	N/A	91.7%
Jake Bauers	23%	25.9%	N/A	80%
Cooper Pratt	30.9%	31.8%	N/A	68.4%
Sal Frelick	28.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Garrett Mitchell	23.4%	12%	N/A	90%
Joey Ortiz	35.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-11	Toronto Blue Jays	4.1	1
2026-07-21	Atlanta Braves	4	3
2026-07-26	Miami Marlins	4.6	7
2026-08-01	San Francisco Giants	4.6	1
2026-08-06	Arizona Diamondbacks	3.8	3
2026-08-11	Milwaukee Brewers	2.7	5
2026-08-17	New York Mets	2.3	4
2026-08-23	Minnesota Twins	2	4
2026-08-29	Tampa Bay Rays	1.5	3
2026-09-04	New York Yankees	4.77	6
2026-09-09	Washington Nationals	4.56	4
2026-09-15	Colorado Rockies	4.06	1
2026-09-20	Miami Marlins	4.47	6
2026-09-26	Arizona Diamondbacks	4.07	3
2026-10-07	Milwaukee Brewers	4.32	0

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 21.3%

!Whiff rate is 18.2%

!CSW rate is 25.4%

!Opponent K% is 22.4%

!Average pitch count is 79.1

!WHIP is 1.36

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-26	Arizona Diamondbacks	Home	3.2	3	73	1.35	9	33.3%
2026-09-20	Miami Marlins	Home	6.2	6	89	1.34	13	46.2%
2026-09-15	Colorado Rockies	Away	4.2	1	92	1.37	12	8.3%
2026-09-09	Washington Nationals	Home	2.1	4	60	1.36	9	44.4%
2026-09-04	New York Yankees	Home	5	6	76	1.34	13	46.2%
2026-08-29	Tampa Bay Rays	Away	5	3	71	1.36	8	37.5%
2026-08-23	Minnesota Twins	Home	6	4	86	1.35	13	30.8%
2026-08-17	New York Mets	Away	6	4	86	1.39	10	40%
2026-08-11	Milwaukee Brewers	Home	6	5	98	1.43	12	41.7%
2026-08-06	Arizona Diamondbacks	Away	4	3	76	1.46	9	33.3%