Projection momentum

MODEL MOVERS

Compare today's projection against each pitcher's previous saved start to identify improving and declining model outlooks.

2026-09-06

Movers

Risers

Fallers

Average move

1.4

Biggest increase

+6.1

Biggest decrease

-1.9

Projection direction

Risers

Projection increased since the previous saved start

Gavin Williams

#01

vs Detroit Tigers · Previous start 2026-09-01

Confidence A+ · 100/100

Movement

+6.1

5.01 → 11.1

Previous → Current

Tanner Gordon

#02

vs St. Louis Cardinals · Previous start 2026-08-31

Confidence B+ · 70/100

Movement

+3.2

1 → 4.16

Previous → Current

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see every projection mover.

Andrew Alvarez

#03

vs Los Angeles Dodgers · Previous start 2026-08-30

Confidence B+ · 70/100

Movement

+1.9

2.5 → 4.36

Previous → Current

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see every projection mover.

Bailey Ober

#04

vs Chicago White Sox · Previous start 2026-08-29

Confidence A · 80/100

Movement

+1.3

2.7 → 4.04

Previous → Current

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see every projection mover.

Bryan Woo

#05

vs Athletics · Previous start 2026-09-01

Confidence B+ · 78/100

Movement

4.84 → 5.79

Previous → Current

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see every projection mover.

Walbert Ureña

#06

vs Pittsburgh Pirates · Previous start 2026-08-31

Confidence B+ · 70/100

Movement

4.5 → 5.5

Previous → Current

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see every projection mover.

Paul Skenes

#07

vs Los Angeles Angels · Previous start 2026-09-01

Confidence A · 88/100

Movement

+0.9

6.02 → 6.9

Previous → Current

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see every projection mover.

Jackson Jobe

#08

vs Cleveland Guardians · Previous start 2026-08-31

Confidence B+ · 70/100

Movement

+0.7

1.9 → 2.6

Previous → Current

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see every projection mover.

Aaron Nola

#09

vs Atlanta Braves · Previous start 2026-08-31

Confidence A+ · 100/100

Movement

+0.6

7.1 → 7.7

Previous → Current

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see every projection mover.

Projection direction

Fallers

Projection decreased since the previous saved start

Randy Dobnak

#01

vs Toronto Blue Jays · Previous start 2026-09-01

Confidence B+ · 70/100

Movement

-1.9

4.82 → 2.9

Previous → Current

Spencer Arrighetti

#02

vs Kansas City Royals · Previous start 2026-07-24

Confidence B+ · 70/100

Movement

-1.9

5 → 3.1

Previous → Current

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see every projection mover.

Ian Seymour

#03

vs Texas Rangers · Previous start 2026-08-31

Confidence A+ · 100/100

Movement

-1.7

7.7 → 5.95

Previous → Current

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see every projection mover.

Tyler Phillips

#04

vs Chicago Cubs · Previous start 2026-09-01

Confidence A · 80/100

Movement

-1.3

4 → 2.7

Previous → Current

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see every projection mover.

Justin Wrobleski

#05

vs Washington Nationals · Previous start 2026-08-15

Confidence B+ · 78/100

Movement

-1.2

5.8 → 4.62

Previous → Current

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see every projection mover.

Kyle Harrison

#06

vs Cincinnati Reds · Previous start 2026-08-31

Confidence A · 88/100

Movement

-1

6.7 → 5.7

Previous → Current

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see every projection mover.

Christian Scott

#07

vs San Francisco Giants · Previous start 2026-08-22

Confidence B+ · 70/100

Movement

-0.9

7.4 → 6.5

Previous → Current

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see every projection mover.

MacKenzie Gore

#08

vs Tampa Bay Rays · Previous start 2026-09-01

Confidence A+ · 90/100

Movement

-0.9

5.71 → 4.79

Previous → Current

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see every projection mover.

Gage Jump

#09

vs Seattle Mariners · Previous start 2026-08-31

Confidence B+ · 70/100

Movement

-0.7

6.3 → 5.63

Previous → Current

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see every projection mover.

Peter Lambert

#10

vs Arizona Diamondbacks · Previous start 2026-08-31

Confidence A · 80/100

Movement

-0.7

5.8 → 5.1

Previous → Current

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see every projection mover.

Kyle Leahy

#11

vs Colorado Rockies · Previous start 2026-08-29

Confidence A+ · 92/100

Movement

-0.6

5.8 → 5.22

Previous → Current

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see every projection mover.

Gerrit Cole

#12

vs San Diego Padres · Previous start 2026-09-01

Confidence A · 88/100

Movement

-0.5

5.85 → 5.35

Previous → Current

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see every projection mover.

Payton Tolle

#13

vs Baltimore Orioles · Previous start 2026-08-31

Confidence A+ · 100/100

Movement

-0.3

8.8 → 8.5

Previous → Current

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see every projection mover.