MLB pitcher strikeout

Parker Messick

@ Chicago White Sox2026-10-08DraftKingsLHP

Projection

6.2

Ensemble: 5.7

Market line

5.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.7

Over 5.5

30% (3/10)· 3U streak

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Recommendation

Over 5.5

DraftKings

Confidence

A+

98/100

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Pitcher K%

25.5%

Whiff%

22.1%

CSW%

25.7%

WHIP

1.03

Avg IP

5.5

Avg pitches

92.6

Last 5 avg Ks

3.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

26.2%

Platoon K%

26.2%

Team chase

30.1%

Recent chase

N/A

Recent contact

67.5%

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

29.8%

Opp K% vs LHP

26%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

5.5

DraftKings

Model projection

6.2

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Ks

5.4

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 3U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

5.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 5.5Model 6.2

Oct 18

vs TB

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Oct 13

@ TB

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Oct 8

@ CWS

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Oct 3

vs CWS

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Sep 27

@ KC

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

14.5

FanDuel

Model projection

15.4

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Outs

13.5

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.0

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

60% (6/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

14.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 14.5Model 15.4

Oct 18

vs TB

UNDER

Outs

-8.5

Oct 13

@ TB

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Oct 8

@ CWS

UNDER

Outs

-7.5

Oct 3

vs CWS

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Sep 27

@ KC

UNDER

Outs

-5.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Chicago White Sox

No prior starts found against Chicago White Sox.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	5.5	-151	+118	+0.7	-0.7	Best Over
FanDuel	5.5	-142	+112	+0.7	-0.7	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

91.3%

5+ Ks

79.8%

6+ Ks

63.7%Line

7+ Ks

44.8%

8+ Ks

27.6%

9+ Ks

14.6%

10+ Ks

6.4%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	51.6%	19.8%	22.2%	94.7
Changeup	23.3%	33.1%	19%	86.3
Sinker	12.3%	9.2%	13.3%	93.4
Slider	7.6%	28.6%	19.2%	87.2
Curveball	4.6%	26.7%	10%	79.9

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

42.6%

2-Strike Foul%

26.4%

2-Strike Contact%

82.9%

Expected Ks

27.4

K Luck

-1.4

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	23	43.5%	56.5%
1-2	36	41.7%	55.6%
2-2	34	35.3%	61.8%
3-2 (full)	16	31.2%	68.8%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Sinker	Slider	Curveball
Chase MeidrothR	16.8%	23.9%	20.9% vs L: 16.4%	18.7% vs L: 13.1%	13.8% vs L: 5.6%	18.8% vs L: 17.4%	5.1% vs L: 0%
Randal GrichukR	23.7%	23.8%	13.3% vs L: 9.1%	28% vs L: 28.6%	13% vs L: 7.7%	27.1% vs L: 26.7%	35.7% vs L: 33.3%
Miguel VargasR	16.8%	18.3%	17.3% vs L: 18.6%	11.9% vs L: 7.5%	20% vs L: 25%	16% vs L: 14.3%	10.2% vs L: 16.7%
Munetaka MurakamiL	34.9%	35.7%	26.5% vs L: 21.7%	18.9% vs L: 20%	29.6% vs L: 31%	27.2% vs L: 29.6%	21.7% vs L: 9.1%
Tommy PhamR	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Brenton DoyleR	30.1%	35.2%	24.3% vs L: 23.7%	34.3% vs L: 26.9%	23.1% vs L: 0%	39.1% vs L: 37.5%	50% vs L: 33.3%
Kyle TeelL	35.9%	35.2%	28.1% vs L: 43.8%	18.2%	21.4% vs L: 15.4%	28.9% vs L: 7.1%	13.3% vs L: 14.3%
Braden MontgomeryS	30.1%	15.6%	11.4% vs L: 20.5%	17.9% vs L: 25%	34.4% vs L: 44.4%	23.5% vs L: 37.5%	13.8% vs L: 33.3%
Colson MontgomeryL	29.9%	38%	33.3% vs L: 31%	29.3% vs L: 26.1%	27.5% vs L: 32.6%	27.9% vs L: 18.9%	17.3% vs L: 11.8%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Sinker	Slider	Curveball
Chase MeidrothR	14.8% vs L: 9.3%	28.6% vs L: 26.9%	7.4% vs L: 4.8%	24.3% vs L: 18.5%	13.2% vs L: 11.1%
Randal GrichukR	15.2% vs L: 12.5%	36.2% vs L: 36.2%	6.3% vs L: 0%	35.6% vs L: 26.2%	28.6% vs L: 16.7%
Miguel VargasR	18.4% vs L: 14.5%	11.8% vs L: 7.5%	8.3% vs L: 12.2%	25.3% vs L: 15.8%	16.9% vs L: 22.9%
Munetaka MurakamiL	39.2% vs L: 38.4%	45.6% vs L: 35.3%	28.7% vs L: 28.6%	50.3% vs L: 55.9%	26.7% vs L: 20%
Tommy PhamR	—	—	—	—	—
Brenton DoyleR	18.1% vs L: 24.6%	46.2% vs L: 39.5%	14% vs L: 15.4%	44.4% vs L: 36.4%	26.7% vs L: 22.2%
Kyle TeelL	34% vs L: 57.1%	40.6%	13% vs L: 12.9%	37.2% vs L: 35.3%	18.2% vs L: 50%
Braden MontgomeryS	20.4% vs L: 32.8%	31.7% vs L: 28.2%	23.6% vs L: 21.4%	30.7% vs L: 44%	28.2% vs L: 40%
Colson MontgomeryL	29.9% vs L: 30.1%	40.8% vs L: 45%	25.5% vs L: 26.5%	45.2% vs L: 36.7%	40% vs L: 46.7%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Chase Meidroth	15	3	20%	.267
Miguel Vargas	15	3	20%	.143
Randal Grichuk	12	1	8.3%	.417
Colson Montgomery	11	5	45.5%	.200
Braden Montgomery	8	4	50%	.333
Brenton Doyle	6	3	50%	.167
Munetaka Murakami	4	1	25%	.250
Tommy Pham	3	1	33.3%	.333
Kyle Teel	3	2	66.7%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Chase Meidroth	31.8%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Randal Grichuk	40.2%	N/A	N/A	85%
Miguel Vargas	20.9%	9.1%	N/A	N/A
Munetaka Murakami	22.4%	25%	N/A	60%
Tommy Pham	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Brenton Doyle	34.2%	N/A	N/A	68.8%
Kyle Teel	31.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Braden Montgomery	26.8%	N/A	N/A	68.8%
Colson Montgomery	32.5%	N/A	N/A	55%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-10	Miami Marlins	5.5	1
2026-07-21	Minnesota Twins	6	6
2026-07-26	Tampa Bay Rays	4.6	6
2026-08-01	Arizona Diamondbacks	4.7	6
2026-08-07	Chicago White Sox	5.1	8
2026-08-13	Detroit Tigers	6.4	6
2026-08-19	San Francisco Giants	6.1	10
2026-08-24	Los Angeles Angels	7.8	4
2026-08-30	Kansas City Royals	7.3	5
2026-09-05	Detroit Tigers	6.28	12
2026-09-11	Minnesota Twins	5.52	5
2026-09-16	Chicago White Sox	7.02	8
2026-09-22	Boston Red Sox	6.17	5
2026-09-27	Kansas City Royals	6.17	2
2026-10-03	Chicago White Sox	6.01	6
2026-10-08	Chicago White Sox	6.15	5
2026-10-13	Tampa Bay Rays	4.85	3
2026-10-18	Tampa Bay Rays	4.85	3

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 25.5%

!Whiff rate is 22.1%

!CSW rate is 25.7%

✓Opponent K% is 26.7%

✓Average pitch count is 92.6

✓WHIP is 1.03

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-10-18	Tampa Bay Rays	Home	2	3	57	1.98	—	—
2026-10-13	Tampa Bay Rays	Away	5	3	82	1.71	9	33.3%
2026-10-08	Chicago White Sox	Away	2.1	5	65	1.8	10	50%
2026-10-03	Chicago White Sox	Home	4.1	6	87	1.38	14	42.9%
2026-09-27	Kansas City Royals	Away	3	2	64	1.06	7	28.6%
2026-09-22	Boston Red Sox	Away	5	5	96	1.04	15	33.3%
2026-09-16	Chicago White Sox	Home	6	8	86	1.04	12	66.7%
2026-09-11	Minnesota Twins	Away	5.1	5	95	1.03	13	38.5%
2026-09-05	Detroit Tigers	Home	6	12	103	1.04	16	75%
2026-08-30	Kansas City Royals	Home	6	5	105	1.02	12	41.7%