MLB pitcher strikeout

Shane Drohan

@ Los Angeles Dodgers2026-10-15DraftKingsLHP

Projection

4.3

Ensemble: 4.2

Market line

2.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+1.8

Over 2.5

40% (4/10)· 5U streak

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Recommendation

Over 2.5

DraftKings

Confidence

60/100

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Pitcher K%

22.7%

Whiff%

28.2%

CSW%

31.5%

WHIP

1.32

Avg IP

Avg pitches

52.8

Last 5 avg Ks

1.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

24.7%

Team chase

28.8%

Recent chase

N/A

Recent contact

N/A

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

20.2%

Opp K% vs LHP

18%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

2.5

DraftKings

Model projection

4.3

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Ks

2.8

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 5U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

2.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 2.5Model 4.3

Oct 15

@ LAD

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Sep 27

vs STL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Sep 24

@ PHI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Sep 18

@ BAL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Sep 16

@ PIT

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

7.5

DraftKings

Model projection

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Outs

8.2

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.7

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

50% (5/10)· 2U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

7.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 7.5Model 13

Oct 15

@ LAD

UNDER

Outs

-4.5

Sep 27

vs STL

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Sep 24

@ PHI

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Sep 18

@ BAL

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Sep 16

@ PIT

UNDER

Outs

-5.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

No prior starts found against Los Angeles Dodgers.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	2.5	+104	-133	+1.8	-1.8	Best Over

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

66.3%

5+ Ks

44.4%

6+ Ks

24.8%

7+ Ks

12%

8+ Ks

5.2%

9+ Ks

1.7%

10+ Ks

0.6%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sinker	24.1%	12.7%	14.3%	95.1
Slider	22.9%	39.1%	29.5%	87.2
4-Seam Fastball	22.4%	22.1%	20.8%	95
Cutter	13.1%	15.3%	14.3%	91.5
Curveball	12%	27%	9.7%	81.6
Changeup	5.5%	21.4%	0%	87.2

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

43.5%

2-Strike Foul%

19.1%

2-Strike Contact%

76.9%

Expected Ks

11.3

K Luck

-1.3

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	13	53.8%	38.5%
1-2	17	41.2%	58.8%
2-2	5	40%	60%
3-2 (full)	3	0%	100%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sinker	Slider	4-Seam Fastball	Cutter	Curveball	Changeup
Shohei OhtaniL	25%	24.3%	17% vs L: 26.3%	24.5% vs L: 26.5%	23.3% vs L: 36.2%	22.6% vs L: 28.6%	27.1% vs L: 25%	24.5% vs L: 20%
Mookie BettsR	7.6%	12.6%	8.3% vs L: 7.7%	19.8% vs L: 19%	7.7% vs L: 8.9%	20.7% vs L: 0%	8.8% vs L: 0%	11.6% vs L: 7.5%
Freddie FreemanL	20.6%	16.2%	12.2% vs L: 13%	16.1% vs L: 15.9%	17% vs L: 26.6%	10.2% vs L: 0%	9.6% vs L: 0%	7.4% vs L: 5.9%
Will SmithR	21.7%	14%	14.9% vs L: 12.5%	9.3% vs L: 16.7%	12.1% vs L: 16.7%	6.2% vs L: 25%	21.7% vs L: 20%	9.3% vs L: 7.4%
Kyle TuckerL	16.8%	16.7%	19.7% vs L: 20%	12.3% vs L: 2.6%	15.1% vs L: 19.7%	23.1% vs L: 27.3%	11.8% vs L: 23.1%	12.7% vs L: 14.3%
Teoscar HernándezR	22.2%	29.9%	21.9% vs L: 0%	30.2% vs L: 33.3%	19.9% vs L: 16.9%	21.9% vs L: 15.4%	13.9% vs L: 12.5%	18.4% vs L: 19%
Miguel RojasR	11.1%	10%	3.6% vs L: 0%	13.9% vs L: 5.3%	13.3% vs L: 11.6%	16.7% vs L: 25%	23.1% vs L: 25%	6.9% vs L: 6.9%
Andy PagesR	17.4%	20.5%	21.1% vs L: 25%	17.4% vs L: 12%	15.6% vs L: 13.8%	13.8% vs L: 18.2%	15.6% vs L: 37.5%	15.5% vs L: 15.2%
Enrique HernándezR	32.7%	24.4%	0% vs L: 0%	33.3% vs L: 25%	29.4% vs L: 20.8%	25% vs L: 0%	50% vs L: 44.4%	22.2% vs L: 22.2%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sinker	Slider	4-Seam Fastball	Cutter	Curveball	Changeup
Shohei OhtaniL	19.5% vs L: 23.9%	37.1% vs L: 37.9%	23.6% vs L: 17.9%	21.8% vs L: 21.1%	38.5% vs L: 39.1%	38.5% vs L: 44.4%
Mookie BettsR	4% vs L: 2.3%	25.2% vs L: 22.7%	5.4% vs L: 2.7%	14% vs L: 0%	8.8% vs L: 5.6%	16.1% vs L: 14.1%
Freddie FreemanL	17.7% vs L: 13%	31.1% vs L: 33.3%	19.5% vs L: 29%	19.8% vs L: 27.6%	20.8% vs L: 10%	20.9% vs L: 10.5%
Will SmithR	6.2% vs L: 6.2%	15.6% vs L: 14.3%	14.3% vs L: 19.3%	18.8% vs L: 12.5%	31.8% vs L: 18.2%	9.5% vs L: 3.3%
Kyle TuckerL	5.1% vs L: 2%	25.1% vs L: 29.5%	16.3% vs L: 19.6%	13.1% vs L: 17.6%	26.3% vs L: 23.1%	25.7% vs L: 23.5%
Teoscar HernándezR	13.5% vs L: 8.7%	40.5% vs L: 50%	24% vs L: 24.5%	30.1% vs L: 18.5%	35.3% vs L: 30.8%	35.7% vs L: 36.7%
Miguel RojasR	7.4% vs L: 8.2%	26.3% vs L: 15.4%	8.1% vs L: 4.7%	11.6% vs L: 13.8%	30.8% vs L: 20%	31.5% vs L: 32.1%
Andy PagesR	12.4% vs L: 2.6%	23.6% vs L: 18.5%	17.6% vs L: 12.5%	14.8% vs L: 15.6%	27.8% vs L: 41.7%	21.8% vs L: 19.2%
Enrique HernándezR	7.1% vs L: 12.5%	20.8% vs L: 36.4%	15.2% vs L: 12.2%	33.3% vs L: 33.3%	40% vs L: 40%	34.5% vs L: 34.5%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Andy Pages	6	2	33.3%	.167
Freddie Freeman	5	2	40%	.000
Kyle Tucker	5	1	20%	.250
Shohei Ohtani	4	1	25%	.250
Teoscar Hernández	4	1	25%	.250
Miguel Rojas	4	0	0%	.000
Mookie Betts	2	1	50%	.000
Enrique Hernández	2	2	100%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Shohei Ohtani	31.8%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Mookie Betts	20.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Freddie Freeman	32.5%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Will Smith	19.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Kyle Tucker	22.4%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Teoscar Hernández	36.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Miguel Rojas	33.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Andy Pages	28.5%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Enrique Hernández	32.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-11	Pittsburgh Pirates	5.3	6
2026-07-18	Miami Marlins	5.6	9
2026-07-24	Colorado Rockies	5.9	6
2026-07-31	Los Angeles Angels	5.8	7
2026-08-07	Minnesota Twins	4.9	4
2026-08-13	Los Angeles Dodgers	5.7	5
2026-08-23	Atlanta Braves	5.3	5
2026-08-29	Texas Rangers	5.4	6
2026-09-04	Cincinnati Reds	5.8	5
2026-09-12	Cincinnati Reds	5.64	4
2026-09-24	Philadelphia Phillies	4.16	2
2026-10-15	Los Angeles Dodgers	4.31	1

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 22.7%

✓Whiff rate is 28.2%

✓CSW rate is 31.5%

!Opponent K% is 18.9%

!Average pitch count is 52.8

!WHIP is 1.32

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-10-15	Los Angeles Dodgers	Away	1	1	25	3	—	—
2026-09-27	St. Louis Cardinals	Home	1.2	2	21	1.32	3	66.7%
2026-09-24	Philadelphia Phillies	Away	2.2	2	47	1.34	6	33.3%
2026-09-18	Baltimore Orioles	Away	1.2	2	23	1.33	2	100%
2026-09-16	Pittsburgh Pirates	Away	0.2	0	11	1.34	2	0%
2026-09-12	Cincinnati Reds	Home	3.2	4	60	1.33	10	40%
2026-09-04	Cincinnati Reds	Away	4	5	78	1.31	10	50%
2026-08-29	Texas Rangers	Home	5	6	99	1.3	13	46.2%
2026-08-23	Atlanta Braves	Home	5	5	83	1.29	9	55.6%
2026-08-18	Seattle Mariners	Home	2	1	39	1.25	5	20%