MLB pitcher strikeout

Hagen Smith

vs Cleveland Guardians2026-10-08DraftKingsLHP

Projection

2.7

Model strikeouts

Market line

1.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+1.2

Over 1.5

80% (8/10)· 1U streak

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Recommendation

Over 1.5

DraftKings

Confidence

88/100

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Pitcher K%

23.7%

Whiff%

30.9%

CSW%

33.5%

WHIP

0.91

Avg IP

1.5

Avg pitches

24.9

Last 5 avg Ks

1.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

32.7%

Team chase

28.1%

Recent chase

27.4%

Recent contact

N/A

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

17.6%

Opp K% vs LHP

18.1%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

1.5

DraftKings

Model projection

2.7

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

80%

8 of 10 overs

Average Ks

2.5

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.0

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

80% (8/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

1.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 1.5Model 2.7

Sep 25

vs COL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Sep 23

@ KC

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Sep 20

vs DET

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Sep 18

vs DET

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Sep 16

@ CLE

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

5.5

FanDuel

Model projection

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Outs

5.1

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.4

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

60% (6/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

5.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 5.5

Sep 25

vs COL

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

Sep 23

@ KC

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Sep 20

vs DET

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

Sep 18

vs DET

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Sep 16

@ CLE

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Cleveland Guardians

No prior starts found against Cleveland Guardians.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	1.5	-164	+128	+1.2	-1.2	Best Over

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

No ladder projection available for this start yet.

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	48.4%	26.7%	21.1%	93.8
Slider	30.3%	42.5%	35%	83.1
Cutter	19%	34.3%	46.2%	88.3
Changeup	2.3%	40%	25%	87.6

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

34.6%

2-Strike Foul%

25.6%

2-Strike Contact%

80%

Expected Ks

13.3

K Luck

-4.3

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	6	33.3%	66.7%
1-2	12	33.3%	66.7%
2-2	5	40%	60%
3-2 (full)	9	22.2%	77.8%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Cutter	Changeup
Steven KwanL	12.7%	8.3%	7.3% vs L: 12.3%	12.3% vs L: 10.9%	9.8% vs L: 0%	4.3% vs L: 10%
José RamírezS	7.3%	15%	7.3% vs L: 6.3%	12.8% vs L: 8%	17.5% vs L: 10%	13.6% vs L: 10%
Chase DeLauterL	20.1%	12.1%	17.8% vs L: 26.2%	14.9% vs L: 9.5%	15% vs L: 10%	13% vs L: 25%
Jo AdellR	22%	24.4%	17.6% vs L: 13.8%	19.9% vs L: 12.9%	12.5% vs L: 20%	21.8% vs L: 20%
Nathaniel LoweL	21.7%	23.4%	17.6% vs L: 6.7%	17.3% vs L: 27.3%	24%	13.8%
Angel MartínezS	17.1%	24.6%	14.6% vs L: 21.3%	26.2% vs L: 31.2%	22.7% vs L: 0%	16.1% vs L: 13.3%
Travis BazzanaL	24.7%	18.8%	14.7% vs L: 18.8%	20.8% vs L: 17%	18.9% vs L: 0%	15.4% vs L: 20%
Austin HedgesR	12.3%	24.6%	12.4% vs L: 8.8%	17.8% vs L: 22.2%	20% vs L: 14.3%	19.2% vs L: 15%
Brayan RocchioS	16.1%	13.5%	14.6% vs L: 15.7%	13.4% vs L: 22.9%	7.4% vs L: 8.3%	15.1% vs L: 17.5%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Cutter	Changeup
Steven KwanL	3.1% vs L: 4.8%	10.9% vs L: 19.6%	10.3% vs L: 21.1%	9.5% vs L: 23.1%
José RamírezS	10.6% vs L: 8.1%	18% vs L: 17.1%	13.1% vs L: 12%	18.9% vs L: 17.8%
Chase DeLauterL	12.1% vs L: 19.8%	22.9% vs L: 24.5%	14.6% vs L: 20%	17.5% vs L: 19%
Jo AdellR	20.7% vs L: 18.4%	36% vs L: 31%	22.3% vs L: 27.6%	37.3% vs L: 44.8%
Nathaniel LoweL	16.6% vs L: 22.2%	27.6% vs L: 46.2%	19.4%	20.3%
Angel MartínezS	13.5% vs L: 12.2%	23.3% vs L: 24%	12.1% vs L: 12.5%	19.7% vs L: 16.4%
Travis BazzanaL	14.6% vs L: 19.6%	33.3% vs L: 32.6%	24.7% vs L: 30.8%	36.1% vs L: 71.4%
Austin HedgesR	17.7% vs L: 19%	31.6% vs L: 30%	24.5% vs L: 15.4%	36.8% vs L: 34.3%
Brayan RocchioS	14% vs L: 18.3%	27.2% vs L: 32.7%	16.7% vs L: 17.6%	31.5% vs L: 38.6%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Brayan Rocchio	4	1	25%	.000
Steven Kwan	3	1	33.3%	.333
José Ramírez	3	0	0%	.500
Chase DeLauter	2	0	0%	.000
Jo Adell	2	1	50%	.000
Travis Bazzana	2	0	0%	.000
Nathaniel Lowe	1	0	0%	.000
Angel Martínez	1	1	100%	.000
Austin Hedges	1	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Steven Kwan	17.5%	11.1%	N/A	N/A
José Ramírez	27%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chase DeLauter	21.9%	4.5%	N/A	N/A
Jo Adell	31.8%	24.1%	N/A	81.8%
Nathaniel Lowe	27.4%	N/A	N/A	94.1%
Angel Martínez	41.4%	50%	N/A	87.5%
Travis Bazzana	29%	47.1%	N/A	88.4%
Austin Hedges	24%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Brayan Rocchio	32.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-09-10	Pittsburgh Pirates	3.1	3
2026-09-29	Houston Astros	3.8	1
2026-10-03	Cleveland Guardians	1.9	4
2026-10-08	Cleveland Guardians	2.7	0

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 23.7%

✓Whiff rate is 30.9%

✓CSW rate is 33.5%

!Opponent K% is 17.3%

!Average pitch count is 24.9

✓WHIP is 0.91

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-25	Colorado Rockies	Home	0.2	1	18	0.96	2	50%
2026-09-23	Kansas City Royals	Away	2	2	33	0.95	6	33.3%
2026-09-20	Detroit Tigers	Home	0.2	1	18	0.95	2	50%
2026-09-18	Detroit Tigers	Home	1	3	20	0.89	3	100%
2026-09-16	Cleveland Guardians	Away	1.2	2	30	0.89	5	40%
2026-09-14	Cleveland Guardians	Away	2	3	26	0.82	4	75%
2026-09-12	St. Louis Cardinals	Away	2	3	21	0.85	3	100%
2026-09-10	Pittsburgh Pirates	Home	2	3	33	0.94	5	60%
2026-09-06	Minnesota Twins	Home	3	4	35	0.94	7	57.1%
2026-09-04	Minnesota Twins	Home	2	3	26	1.15	5	60%