MLB pitcher strikeout

Foster Griffin

@ Tampa Bay Rays2026-10-12DraftKingsLHP

Projection

3.8

Ensemble: 3.8

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.3

Over 3.5

80% (8/10)· 4O streak

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Recommendation

Over 3.5

DraftKings

Confidence

68/100

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Pitcher K%

25.5%

Whiff%

25.8%

CSW%

29.8%

WHIP

1.1

Avg IP

4.6

Avg pitches

82.6

Last 5 avg Ks

5.2

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

23.7%

Team chase

32.1%

Recent chase

N/A

Recent contact

N/A

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

18.2%

Opp K% vs LHP

15.4%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model projection

3.8

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

80%

8 of 10 overs

Average Ks

4.9

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.4

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

80% (8/10)· 4O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 3.8

Oct 7

@ CWS

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Sep 23

@ BOS

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Sep 15

vs CWS

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Sep 9

@ BAL

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Sep 4

vs DET

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

13.5

FanDuel

Model projection

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Outs

13.8

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

60% (6/10)· 1U streakLM ↓ -1

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

13.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 13.5Model 14

Oct 7

@ CWS

UNDER

Outs

-5.5

Sep 23

@ BOS

OVER

Outs

+4.5

Sep 15

vs CWS

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Sep 9

@ BAL

UNDER

Outs

-6.5

Sep 4

vs DET

OVER

Outs

+4.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Tampa Bay Rays

No prior starts found against Tampa Bay Rays.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	3.5	-119	-107	+0.3	-0.3	Best Over
FanDuel	3.5	-130	+102	+0.3	-0.3	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

62.6%Line

5+ Ks

40.2%

6+ Ks

22.4%

7+ Ks

10.2%

8+ Ks

3.8%

9+ Ks

1.5%

10+ Ks

0.3%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Cutter	32.9%	12%	8.5%	89.1
Sweeper	15.7%	23.8%	21.8%	80.9
4-Seam Fastball	15.3%	19.4%	19.4%	91.5
Changeup	13.4%	24.7%	22.2%	82.8
Sinker	10.5%	2.4%	30%	91.7
Curveball	6.3%	12.5%	0%	77.9
Splitter	5.8%	13.8%	9.4%	81.5

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

52%

2-Strike Foul%

22.9%

2-Strike Contact%

71%

Expected Ks

19.4

K Luck

+6.6

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	25	60%	36%
1-2	29	51.7%	44.8%
2-2	19	36.8%	57.9%
3-2 (full)	11	45.5%	54.5%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Cutter	Sweeper	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Sinker	Curveball	Splitter
Yandy DíazR	11.9%	15.3%	16.1% vs L: 15%	3.7% vs L: 12.5%	16.8% vs L: 8%	10.1% vs L: 10.4%	11.9% vs L: 20%	12.2% vs L: 4.8%	7.7%
Jonathan ArandaL	27.4%	23.2%	26% vs L: 21.4%	17% vs L: 19.2%	17.1% vs L: 20.8%	11.4% vs L: 23.1%	23.6% vs L: 25%	30.4% vs L: 20%	12.1%
Junior CamineroR	13.8%	20%	17.9% vs L: 33.3%	22.8% vs L: 12.5%	16.8% vs L: 15.5%	14.5% vs L: 13%	16% vs L: 10%	26.9% vs L: 19%	20.5%
Liam HicksL	14.3%	8.7%	2.9% vs L: 0%	7% vs L: 11.5%	7.6% vs L: 17.6%	12.7%	9.7% vs L: 14.8%	14.8% vs L: 0%	14.7%
Chandler SimpsonL	9.9%	6.7%	9.7% vs L: 11.1%	16.3% vs L: 14.8%	5.4% vs L: 4.9%	15.8% vs L: 25%	10.2% vs L: 17.2%	10.7% vs L: 14.3%	0%
Victor Mesa Jr.L	13.6%	22.4%	21.4%	12.5% vs L: 0%	17.7% vs L: 17.4%	20.8%	26.3% vs L: 12.5%	14.3%	18.2%
Jonny DeLucaR	23.2%	19.4%	12.5% vs L: 0%	41.5% vs L: 42.9%	18.3% vs L: 23.1%	13.5% vs L: 14%	23.1% vs L: 23.5%	15% vs L: 11.1%	11.1%
Richie PalaciosL	18.8%	16.7%	11.5% vs L: 50%	9.1% vs L: 0%	17.6% vs L: 25%	11.3%	19.6% vs L: 28.6%	10%	20%
Taylor WallsS	21.3%	25.8%	18.5% vs L: 20%	17.9% vs L: 0%	22.9% vs L: 24.1%	26.9% vs L: 25.7%	7.7% vs L: 14.3%	19.6% vs L: 16.7%	33.3%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Cutter	Sweeper	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Sinker	Curveball	Splitter
Yandy DíazR	10.7% vs L: 9.1%	7.7% vs L: 9.1%	16.6% vs L: 12.1%	14.3% vs L: 14.3%	5.3% vs L: 4.5%	14% vs L: 8.3%	11.1%
Jonathan ArandaL	21.7% vs L: 25.8%	20.8% vs L: 23.1%	22.1% vs L: 23.1%	14.9% vs L: 33.3%	7.9% vs L: 12.2%	22.6% vs L: 12.5%	17.3%
Junior CamineroR	12.1% vs L: 7.1%	31.1% vs L: 18.2%	20.4% vs L: 20%	27.3% vs L: 26.7%	10.1% vs L: 10%	27.3% vs L: 16.7%	35.4%
Liam HicksL	8.2% vs L: 23.1%	10.9% vs L: 16.7%	4.7% vs L: 8.3%	16.7%	2.3% vs L: 3.6%	14% vs L: 0%	25%
Chandler SimpsonL	11.2% vs L: 14.3%	15.7% vs L: 16.2%	3.5% vs L: 4.5%	23.4% vs L: 44.4%	3.6% vs L: 5%	24.2% vs L: 28.6%	10%
Victor Mesa Jr.L	17.1%	8.3% vs L: 0%	24.5% vs L: 19%	21.7%	8.3% vs L: 3%	30.3%	30%
Jonny DeLucaR	19.2% vs L: 14.3%	32.7% vs L: 25%	18.9% vs L: 22.7%	25.8% vs L: 26%	10.3% vs L: 14.6%	20% vs L: 13.3%	29.4%
Richie PalaciosL	11.1% vs L: 37.5%	22.5% vs L: 0%	11.8% vs L: 21.2%	32.9%	5% vs L: 0%	21.8%	27.8%
Taylor WallsS	13.7% vs L: 7.7%	19% vs L: 0%	17.6% vs L: 14.7%	31.2% vs L: 34.8%	10.7% vs L: 12.2%	25.7% vs L: 0%	61.9%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Jonathan Aranda	1	1	100%	.000
Taylor Walls	1	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Yandy Díaz	31.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jonathan Aranda	30.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Junior Caminero	33%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Liam Hicks	27%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chandler Simpson	31.2%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Victor Mesa Jr.	38.2%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jonny DeLuca	36.4%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Richie Palacios	33.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Taylor Walls	27.4%	N/A	N/A	N/A

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-08	Houston Astros	5.4	9
2026-07-19	Athletics	7.5	2
2026-07-25	Arizona Diamondbacks	5	2
2026-07-31	Atlanta Braves	4.8	3
2026-08-06	New York Mets	4.9	6
2026-08-12	Detroit Tigers	5.1	3
2026-08-18	San Francisco Giants	4.6	6
2026-08-23	Colorado Rockies	4.2	4
2026-08-29	Kansas City Royals	4.5	4
2026-09-04	Detroit Tigers	4.17	3
2026-09-09	Baltimore Orioles	5.06	4
2026-09-15	Chicago White Sox	3.3	5
2026-09-23	Boston Red Sox	4.3	7
2026-10-12	Tampa Bay Rays	3.77	3

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 25.5%

!Whiff rate is 25.8%

!CSW rate is 29.8%

!Opponent K% is 17%

!Average pitch count is 82.6

✓WHIP is 1.1

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-10-07	Chicago White Sox	Away	2.2	7	53	0.75	10	70%
2026-09-23	Boston Red Sox	Away	6	7	83	1.21	12	58.3%
2026-09-15	Chicago White Sox	Home	4	5	83	1.19	11	45.5%
2026-09-09	Baltimore Orioles	Away	2.1	4	62	1.18	9	44.4%
2026-09-04	Detroit Tigers	Home	6	3	92	1.14	8	37.5%
2026-08-29	Kansas City Royals	Home	5	4	82	1.12	9	44.4%
2026-08-23	Colorado Rockies	Away	5	4	105	1.13	13	30.8%
2026-08-18	San Francisco Giants	Home	6	6	101	1.11	13	46.2%
2026-08-12	Detroit Tigers	Away	5	3	83	1.11	12	25%
2026-08-06	New York Mets	Home	4	6	88	1.11	13	46.2%