MLB pitcher strikeout

Robert Gasser

@ San Diego Padres2026-10-07DraftKingsLHP

Projection

4.4

Ensemble: 4.0

Market line

2.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+1.9

Over 2.5

90% (9/10)· 3O streak

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Recommendation

Over 2.5

DraftKings

Confidence

60/100

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Pitcher K%

23.8%

Whiff%

23.3%

CSW%

26.9%

WHIP

1.26

Avg IP

5.3

Avg pitches

87.9

Last 5 avg Ks

4.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

22.5%

Team chase

30.7%

Recent chase

N/A

Recent contact

N/A

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

20.2%

Opp K% vs LHP

19.5%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

2.5

DraftKings

Model projection

4.4

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

90%

9 of 10 overs

Average Ks

4.8

Selected starts

Average margin

+2.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

90% (9/10)· 3O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

2.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 2.5Model 4.4

Oct 14

@ LAD

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Oct 7

@ SD

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Sep 25

vs STL

OVER

Strikeouts

+6.5

Sep 19

@ BAL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Sep 13

vs CIN

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

8.5

FanDuel

Model projection

13.8

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

100%

10 of 10 overs

Average Outs

15.4

Selected starts

Average margin

+6.9

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

100% (10/10)· 10O streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

8.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 8.5Model 13.8

Oct 14

@ LAD

OVER

Outs

+6.5

Oct 7

@ SD

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Sep 25

vs STL

OVER

Outs

+9.5

Sep 19

@ BAL

OVER

Outs

+12.5

Sep 13

vs CIN

OVER

Outs

+6.5

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Analytics

Career vs. San Diego Padres

No prior starts found against San Diego Padres.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	2.5	-108	-119	+1.9	-1.9	Best Over
FanDuel	2.5	-104	-122	+1.9	-1.9	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

69.1%

5+ Ks

48.5%

6+ Ks

28.8%

7+ Ks

14.8%

8+ Ks

6.3%

9+ Ks

2.1%

10+ Ks

0.5%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sweeper	23.6%	25%	21.2%	80.6
4-Seam Fastball	23.1%	23.5%	17%	93.3
Sinker	20.4%	9%	20.4%	93.2
Cutter	19.2%	12.9%	4.3%	88.9
Changeup	12.8%	29%	17.9%	88.6
Slider	0.9%	0%	0%	83.9

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

36.2%

2-Strike Foul%

22.1%

2-Strike Contact%

81.4%

Expected Ks

K Luck

-3

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	23	30.4%	69.6%
1-2	40	42.5%	55%
2-2	33	33.3%	66.7%
3-2 (full)	20	15%	85%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sweeper	4-Seam Fastball	Sinker	Cutter	Changeup	Slider
Fernando Tatis Jr.R	18%	18.6%	17.9% vs L: 22.2%	20% vs L: 12.2%	20.8% vs L: 21.7%	14.3% vs L: 22.2%	16.7% vs L: 15.6%	23.9% vs L: 25%
Jackson MerrillL	26.2%	23.2%	15.9% vs L: 8%	22.6% vs L: 28.8%	14.8% vs L: 21.6%	24.3% vs L: 10%	18.8% vs L: 25%	18.9% vs L: 19.1%
Manny MachadoR	20.6%	21.4%	22.3% vs L: 30%	20.8% vs L: 17.7%	14.1% vs L: 30%	10% vs L: 5.3%	22.4% vs L: 12.5%	14.2% vs L: 42.9%
Ty FranceR	24.5%	20.3%	12.2% vs L: 0%	17.3% vs L: 13%	9.2% vs L: 4.2%	15.8% vs L: 5.6%	23.3% vs L: 27.8%	20.3% vs L: 15.8%
Austin HaysR	25.6%	29.5%	36.4%	12% vs L: 13.3%	33.3% vs L: 33.3%	42.9% vs L: 50%	16.7% vs L: 16.7%	17.9% vs L: 12.5%
Xander BogaertsR	12%	20%	11.2% vs L: 7.1%	14.3% vs L: 7.1%	18.6% vs L: 11.1%	16.1% vs L: 12.5%	18.3% vs L: 16.7%	17.4% vs L: 17.6%
Luis CampusanoR	20.8%	21.5%	20%	15.6% vs L: 15.8%	14.7% vs L: 25%	16% vs L: 27.3%	13.5% vs L: 16.7%	18.2% vs L: 0%
Jake CronenworthL	16%	24.6%	28.6% vs L: 12.5%	10.2% vs L: 11.1%	22.2% vs L: 12.5%	11.4% vs L: 0%	20.5% vs L: 9.1%	23.1% vs L: 16.7%
Samad TaylorR	28%	24.8%	40%	19.4% vs L: 20%	22.2% vs L: 40%	20% vs L: 33.3%	13.3% vs L: 11.1%	33.3% vs L: 33.3%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sweeper	4-Seam Fastball	Sinker	Cutter	Changeup	Slider
Fernando Tatis Jr.R	26% vs L: 37.5%	17.4% vs L: 15.2%	13.4% vs L: 16.7%	25% vs L: 34.6%	31.2% vs L: 26.7%	33.9% vs L: 33.3%
Jackson MerrillL	28.3% vs L: 28.6%	25.7% vs L: 29.2%	9.9% vs L: 10%	29.2% vs L: 29.2%	25.4% vs L: 32.1%	29.3% vs L: 27%
Manny MachadoR	32.3% vs L: 50%	21.7% vs L: 21.6%	13.1% vs L: 24.4%	10.5% vs L: 6.7%	28.1% vs L: 27.8%	28.2% vs L: 38.1%
Ty FranceR	21.4% vs L: 0%	25.9% vs L: 21.3%	13.9% vs L: 27%	29.4% vs L: 17.1%	29.5% vs L: 31.7%	26.7% vs L: 27.3%
Austin HaysR	45.8%	10% vs L: 8.3%	23.1% vs L: 28.6%	66.7% vs L: 25%	28% vs L: 29.2%	28.1% vs L: 11.1%
Xander BogaertsR	22.2% vs L: 22.2%	11.7% vs L: 9%	11.7% vs L: 3.9%	17% vs L: 30.8%	35.8% vs L: 31.9%	34.5% vs L: 45.5%
Luis CampusanoR	32%	20.5% vs L: 7.1%	12% vs L: 11.1%	24.3% vs L: 43.8%	22.9% vs L: 22.2%	39.1% vs L: 25%
Jake CronenworthL	28.6% vs L: 21.1%	9.6% vs L: 9.3%	14.7% vs L: 13%	14.3% vs L: 15.4%	36% vs L: 25%	23.3% vs L: 14.3%
Samad TaylorR	38.9%	12.6% vs L: 7.5%	16.1% vs L: 12.5%	17.6% vs L: 20%	34.4% vs L: 33.3%	29.7% vs L: 12.5%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

No head-to-head history found for this lineup.

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Fernando Tatis Jr.	24.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jackson Merrill	40.5%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Manny Machado	29.7%	34.8%	N/A	80%
Ty France	35.5%	34.5%	N/A	66.7%
Austin Hays	34.4%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Xander Bogaerts	19.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Luis Campusano	28.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jake Cronenworth	30%	20%	N/A	84%
Samad Taylor	32.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-07	St. Louis Cardinals	4.7	4
2026-07-12	Pittsburgh Pirates	4.7	3
2026-07-19	Miami Marlins	5.1	5
2026-07-25	Colorado Rockies	4.9	4
2026-08-01	Los Angeles Angels	5.1	6
2026-08-08	Minnesota Twins	4.4	3
2026-08-14	Los Angeles Dodgers	4.6	7
2026-08-20	Seattle Mariners	4.8	4
2026-09-01	Chicago Cubs	4.58	4
2026-09-07	Chicago Cubs	4.52	5
2026-09-13	Cincinnati Reds	5.42	5
2026-09-19	Baltimore Orioles	5.18	2
2026-09-25	St. Louis Cardinals	4.89	9
2026-10-07	San Diego Padres	4.38	3
2026-10-14	Los Angeles Dodgers	4.58	3

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 23.8%

!Whiff rate is 23.3%

!CSW rate is 26.9%

!Opponent K% is 21.3%

!Average pitch count is 87.9

!WHIP is 1.26

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-10-14	Los Angeles Dodgers	Away	5	3	72	0.89	—	—
2026-10-07	San Diego Padres	Away	4	3	56	1	9	33.3%
2026-09-25	St. Louis Cardinals	Home	6	9	87	1.19	14	64.3%
2026-09-19	Baltimore Orioles	Away	7	2	107	1.24	14	14.3%
2026-09-13	Cincinnati Reds	Home	5	5	89	1.27	16	31.2%
2026-09-07	Chicago Cubs	Home	4.2	5	83	1.28	14	35.7%
2026-09-01	Chicago Cubs	Away	4.1	4	76	1.29	11	36.4%
2026-08-26	New York Mets	Away	5.1	6	82	1.3	13	46.2%
2026-08-20	Seattle Mariners	Home	3.2	4	77	1.29	10	40%
2026-08-14	Los Angeles Dodgers	Away	6.1	7	102	1.24	13	53.8%