Game outcome model
NFL SPREAD & TOTALS
Predicts each upcoming NFL game's margin and total points against the real captured sportsbook lines. Play/No Play flags spread picks that clear our real, backtested confidence bar - not every game is a play.
Upcoming games
16
Qualifying plays
0
With spread line
13
With totals line
13
▼
Wed, Sep 9, 8:20 PM ET
Margin (estimate)SEA by 5.2
Market spreadSEA -3.5 (DraftKings)
Total points (estimate)45.5
Market total20.5 (DraftKings)
No spread playNo total play
MoneylineNE: +154SEA: -185DraftKings
Model leans
SEA 71.0%
Thu, Sep 10, 8:35 PM ET
Margin (estimate)LA by 4.4
Total points (estimate)51.1
MoneylineSF: --LA: --
Model leans
LA 62.9%
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
Margin (estimate)CIN by 4.2
Market spreadCIN -3.5 (DraftKings)
Total points (estimate)51.6
Market total27.5 (DraftKings)
No spread playNo total play
MoneylineTB: +170CIN: -205DraftKings
Model leans
CIN 60.8%
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
Margin (estimate)DET by 6.8
Market spreadDET -7 (DraftKings)
Total points (estimate)49.0
Market total28.5 (DraftKings)
No spread playNo total play
MoneylineNO: +250DET: -310DraftKings
Model leans
DET 74.8%
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
Margin (estimate)CHI by 1.1
Market spreadCHI -2.5 (DraftKings)
Total points (estimate)46.7
Market total47.5 (DraftKings)
No spread playNo total play
MoneylineCHI: -155CAR: +130DraftKings
Model leans
CHI 60.9%
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
Margin (estimate)BAL by 4.7
Market spreadBAL -3.5 (DraftKings)
Total points (estimate)46.7
Market total26.5 (DraftKings)
No spread playNo total play
MoneylineBAL: -175IND: +145DraftKings
Model leans
BAL 63.2%
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
Margin (estimate)JAX by 10.5
Market spreadJAX -7.5 (DraftKings)
Total points (estimate)42.5
Market total15.5 (DraftKings)
No spread playNo total play
MoneylineCLE: +320JAX: -410DraftKings
Model leans
JAX 80.0%
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
Margin (estimate)PIT by 4.3
Market spreadPIT -3.5 (DraftKings)
Total points (estimate)43.6
Market total19.5 (DraftKings)
No spread playNo total play
MoneylineATL: +154PIT: -185DraftKings
Model leans
PIT 61.1%
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
Margin (estimate)BUF by 0.7
Market spreadBUF -1.5 (DraftKings)
Total points (estimate)45.5
Market total22.5 (DraftKings)
No spread playNo total play
MoneylineBUF: -118HOU: -102DraftKings
Model leans
BUF 53.0%
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
Margin (estimate)TEN by 0.1
Market spreadTEN -1.5 (DraftKings)
Total points (estimate)40.5
Market total19.5 (DraftKings)
No spread playNo total play
MoneylineNYJ: +110TEN: -130DraftKings
Model leans
TEN 51.5%
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET
Margin (estimate)LAC by 10.6
Total points (estimate)44.9
MoneylineARI: --LAC: --
Model leans
LAC 78.6%
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET
Margin (estimate)LV by 2.0
Total points (estimate)42.7
MoneylineMIA: --LV: --
Model leans
LV 57.0%
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET
Margin (estimate)PHI by 3.7
Market spreadPHI -5.5 (DraftKings)
Total points (estimate)44.6
Market total24.5 (DraftKings)
No spread playNo total play
MoneylineWAS: +180PHI: -218DraftKings
Model leans
PHI 54.2%
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET
Margin (estimate)MIN by 1.6
Market spreadMIN -1.5 (DraftKings)
Total points (estimate)46.8
Market total22.5 (DraftKings)
No spread playNo total play
MoneylineGB: +102MIN: -122DraftKings
Model leans
MIN 50.3%
Sun, Sep 13, 8:20 PM ET
Margin (estimate)DAL by 0.2
Market spreadDAL -2.5 (DraftKings)
Total points (estimate)49.4
Market total25.5 (DraftKings)
No spread playNo total play
MoneylineDAL: -148NYG: +124DraftKings
Model leans
DAL 54.5%
Mon, Sep 14, 8:15 PM ET
Margin (estimate)KC by 2.2
Market spreadKC -3 (DraftKings)
Total points (estimate)43.8
Market total19.5 (DraftKings)
No spread playNo total play
MoneylineDEN: +124KC: -148DraftKings
Model leans
KC 52.5%