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DETDET

Sunday, October 25 at 4:25 PM ET

No Play
Model marginDET by 4.2
Market spreadDET -3 (DraftKings)

Play/No Play reflects a real backtested edge threshold - see /nfl/game-predictor for the full methodology.

No Play
Model total54.5
Market total53.5 (Hard Rock Bet)
OddsGB +145 / DET -175 (DraftKings)
Model leansDET 53.1%

Informational only - no real backtested moneyline edge threshold exists yet, so this never carries a Play/No Play badge.

Every number on this page comes straight from real play-by-play - no PFF grades, DVOA, or ESPN's proprietary Total QBR. The colored badge on each matchup row shows which side the real numbers favor for that specific stat: green favors the offense, red favors the defense, and goldmeans it's a real dead heat. Each row shows one bar per team, colored in that team's own real colors and scaled along a realistic NFL range, so you can see both sides' real numbers as actual bars rather than having to compare two points.

EPA (Expected Points Added)
The real point value of every single play, based on down, distance, and field position, averaged across the season. A positive number means the offense is gaining more than a league-average play would in that spot; a very negative “allowed” number means the defense is holding opponents well below average.
Success Rate
The share of plays that meaningfully move the chains - roughly 40%+ of the yards needed on 1st down, 60%+ on 2nd, and a full conversion on 3rd or 4th. It's a steadier read on efficiency than yards per play, since one 60-yard bomb can't hide four stuffed runs.
3rd Down %
How often the offense converts a 3rd down into a fresh set of downs, and on defense, how often opponents convert against them. Real 3rd-down efficiency is one of the clearest drivers of who controls the clock.
Sacks Allowed/G & Sacks/G
The offensive line's real pass-protection record (sacks allowed per game) and the defense's real pass-rush record (sacks recorded per game). Unlike the stats above, a LOWER number is better for the offense here, so the edge badge's color logic is flipped for this row to stay accurate.
Giveaways & Takeaways
Real turnovers - giveaways are the offense's own fumbles lost plus interceptions thrown; takeaways are how many turnovers this defense has actually forced. Same as sacks, fewer giveaways is better for the offense, so this row's coloring is flipped too.
Red Zone TD%
Of the offense's real trips inside the opponent's 20-yard line, the share that ended in a touchdown instead of a field goal or an empty-handed possession.
Passer Rating
The NFL's own traditional formula - completion %, yards per attempt, touchdown %, and interception % - computed directly from real play-by-play, not an estimated or proprietary grade.
Yards / Play
Total yards gained divided by total plays run - a simple, no-frills measure of overall offensive volume.
Points / Game & Points Allowed / Game
Real scoring and real scoring defense, season to date.
Takeaway Differential
Turnovers forced minus turnovers committed. One of the single clearest predictors of who wins the turnover battle, and by extension the game.
DETGB
EPA / Pass0.388
DET
0.298
GB
-0.090
EPA / Rush0.009
DET
-0.017
GB
-0.008
Success% Pass6.9%
DET
51.0%
GB
44.1%
Success% Rush3.5%
DET
45.4%
GB
41.9%
3rd Down %6.1%
DET
37.3%
GB
43.4%
Sacks Allowed/G0.3
DET
2.2
GB
2.5
Giveaways (season)10
DET
1
GB
11

Real season-to-date stats from actual play-by-play. See "What do these stats mean?" above for how the badge is colored.

GBDET
EPA / Pass0.100
GB
0.115
DET
0.215
EPA / Rush0.242
GB
-0.273
DET
-0.031
Success% Pass7.1%
GB
42.9%
DET
50.0%
Success% Rush6.9%
GB
33.6%
DET
40.5%
3rd Down %15.2%
GB
35.5%
DET
50.7%
Sacks Allowed/G1.8
GB
2.2
DET
4.0
Giveaways (season)2
GB
7
DET
5

Real season-to-date stats from actual play-by-play. See "What do these stats mean?" above for how the badge is colored.

GBDET

Red Zone TD%

GB
42.3%
DET
68.0%✓

Passer Rating

GB
86.5
DET
105.3✓

Yards / Play

GB
5.6
DET
6.2✓

Points / Game

GB
21.2
DET
32.8✓

Points Allowed / Game

GB
20.8✓
DET
29.6

Takeaway Differential

GB
+4
DET
+4

Real, freely-computable stats only - PFF grades, DVOA, and ESPN's proprietary Total QBR are never fabricated here.

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