Daily home run projections
HR PROP MODEL
Rank every batter by modeled home run probability using recent power, expected contact quality, opposing-pitcher vulnerability, and park environment.
Saturday, October 24, 2026
Batters
18
Matchups
2
Top probability
13.1%
Confirmed lineup rows
0
Expected lineup rows
18
Stored dates
97
Hit HR0
No HR0
Pending18
Players are sorted by actual batting order 1–9 by default · click Order to reverse · click another column to sort by that statistic
#3
Home run prop
Yandy Díaz
vs Logan Henderson
Expected
HR probability
11.7%
Season HR%
3.3%
Park factor
2.8
Barrel%
7.3%
Hard Hit%
49.7%
Exit Velo
91.2 mph
xSLG
0.510
ISO
0.141
P HR% Allowed
3.4%
Season
AVG
.293
HR
22
RBI
85
Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal
| Pitch | Usage | P Hard Hit% | P wOBA | Batter Hard Hit% | Batter wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 49.2% | 47.1% | 0.204 | 52.4% | 0.294 |
| Changeup | 36.7% | 20.4% | 0.236 | 44% | 0.347 |
| Cutter | 11.4% | 50% | 0.419 | 41.2% | 0.325 |
| Sweeper | 2.7% | 14.3% | 0.250 | 43.6% | 0.529 |
All-time team top-pick record
16-104(120 resolved team picks across 21 dates)
13.3%
Stat color key
Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.
Elite25%+ above average
Above Average10–25% above
League AverageWithin 10%
Below Average10%+ below
| Rank | Batter | Matchup AVG | Weather | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yandy Díaz | 1 | 11.7% | —Pending | — | 3.27% | 2.98% | 49.7% | 7.3% | 91.2 mph | 105.9 mph | 31.1% | 19.2% | 0.510 | 0.141 | 14.3% | 87.2% | 71.7 mph | 3.41% | 7.4% | 36.9% | 0.484% | 29% | 17.6% | 1.32 | 2.81% | ±0.0 | Expected |
| 2 | Jonathan Aranda | 2 | 10.6% | —Pending | — | 3.64% | 3.7% | 48.3% | 9.1% | 91 mph | 103.1 mph | 42.7% | 30.8% | 0.584 | 0.169 | 26.8% | 78.9% | 69.3 mph | 3.41% | 7.4% | 36.9% | 0.484% | 29% | 17.6% | 1.32 | 2.81% | ±0.0 | Expected |
| 3 | Junior Caminero | 3 | 10.8% | —Pending | — | 5.28% | 6.86% | 46.6% | 12.5% | 92.1 mph | 110 mph | 26.1% | 23.3% | 0.610 | 0.217 | 17.9% | 76.7% | 77.2 mph | 3.41% | 7.4% | 36.9% | 0.484% | 29% | 17.6% | 1.32 | 2.81% | ±0.0 | Expected |
| 4 | Victor Mesa Jr. | 4 | 13.1% | —Pending | — | 4.44% | 5.43% | 45.2% | 10.6% | 88.7 mph | 103.8 mph | 31.7% | 37.5% | 0.570 | 0.240 | 16.3% | 77.3% | 70.6 mph | 3.41% | 7.4% | 36.9% | 0.484% | 29% | 17.6% | 1.32 | 2.81% | ±0.0 | Expected |
| 5 | Chandler Simpson | 5 | 6.2% | —Pending | — | 0% | 0% | 12.8% | 0% | 79.9 mph | 96.5 mph | 25.6% | 13.8% | 0.320 | 0.024 | 5.4% | 91.3% | 59.6 mph | 3.41% | 7.4% | 36.9% | 0.484% | 29% | 17.6% | 1.32 | 2.81% | ±0.0 | Expected |
| 6 | Jonny DeLuca | 6 | 8.2% | —Pending | — | 2.99% | 5.38% | 30.6% | 3.2% | 86 mph | 105.2 mph | 25% | 21% | 0.366 | 0.151 | 21.6% | 79.9% | 71.2 mph | 3.41% | 7.4% | 36.9% | 0.484% | 29% | 17.6% | 1.32 | 2.81% | ±0.0 | Expected |
| 7 | Liam Hicks | 7 | 8.3% | —Pending | 0.000 | 2.23% | 2.84% | 20% | 3% | 83.6 mph | 100.3 mph | 42.2% | 25.2% | 0.427 | 0.123 | 10.6% | 88.2% | 66.4 mph | 3.41% | 7.4% | 36.9% | 0.484% | 29% | 17.6% | 1.32 | 2.81% | ±0.0 | Expected |
| 8 | Ben Williamson | 8 | 7.7% | —Pending | — | 2.63% | N/A | 32.1% | 3.6% | 88.3 mph | 100.9 mph | 21.4% | 14.3% | 0.307 | 0.086 | 18.4% | 83.9% | 67.7 mph | 3.41% | 7.4% | 36.9% | 0.484% | 29% | 17.6% | 1.32 | 2.81% | ±0.0 | Expected |
| 9 | Taylor Walls | 9 | 8.1% | —Pending | — | 1.39% | 1.08% | 20.6% | 1% | 80.2 mph | 98.3 mph | 34% | 26.8% | 0.360 | 0.081 | 22.2% | 82.9% | 62.5 mph | 3.41% | 7.4% | 36.9% | 0.484% | 29% | 17.6% | 1.32 | 2.81% | ±0.0 | Expected |
| Rank | Batter | Matchup AVG | Weather | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson Chourio | 1 | 12.3% | —Pending | 0.000 | 4.71% | 4.12% | 48% | 11.9% | 90.7 mph | 106 mph | 34.5% | 32.8% | 0.669 | 0.197 | 21.2% | 74.6% | 72.1 mph | 1.21% | 5.1% | 34.6% | 0.457% | 24% | 7.7% | 0.47 | 2.81% | ±0.0 | Expected |
| 2 | Brice Turang | 2 | 9.8% | —Pending | 0.250⚾ | 2.53% | 2.6% | 37.9% | 5.7% | 87.2 mph | 103.4 mph | 39.3% | 19.3% | 0.562 | 0.149 | 26.2% | 77.1% | 66.3 mph | 1.21% | 5.1% | 34.6% | 0.457% | 24% | 7.7% | 0.47 | 2.81% | ±0.0 | Expected |
| 3 | William Contreras | 3 | 11.7% | —Pending | 0.400⚾ | 3.57% | 3.87% | 46.9% | 11.1% | 90.8 mph | 104.8 mph | 37.7% | 28.4% | 0.550 | 0.199 | 16.1% | 78.8% | 72 mph | 1.21% | 5.1% | 34.6% | 0.457% | 24% | 7.7% | 0.47 | 2.81% | ±0.0 | Expected |
| 4 | Jake Bauers | 4 | 10.4% | —Pending | 0.375 | 3.94% | 2.22% | 49% | 15.4% | 90.9 mph | 107.4 mph | 46.2% | 29.8% | 0.742 | 0.209 | 27.1% | 69.9% | 73.4 mph | 1.21% | 5.1% | 34.6% | 0.457% | 24% | 7.7% | 0.47 | 2.81% | ±0.0 | Expected |
| 5 | Christian Yelich | 5 | 9.4% | —Pending | 0.250⚾ | 2.62% | 3.45% | 43.8% | 9.9% | 88 mph | 104 mph | 29.8% | 16.5% | 0.557 | 0.122 | 26.7% | 74.4% | 71.3 mph | 1.21% | 5.1% | 34.6% | 0.457% | 24% | 7.7% | 0.47 | 2.81% | ±0.0 | Expected |
| 6 | Garrett Mitchell | 6 | 11.3% | —Pending | 0.500 | 1.56% | 1.37% | 58.3% | 7.4% | 93.2 mph | 109.3 mph | 28.7% | 10.2% | 0.654 | 0.113 | 29.7% | 70% | 76.4 mph | 1.21% | 5.1% | 34.6% | 0.457% | 24% | 7.7% | 0.47 | 2.81% | ±0.0 | Expected |
| 7 | Cooper Pratt | 7 | 9.4% | —Pending | — | 0.65% | 0% | 24.3% | 1.8% | 84.5 mph | 100 mph | 42.3% | 20.7% | 0.424 | 0.068 | 18.2% | 82.4% | 66.9 mph | 1.21% | 5.1% | 34.6% | 0.457% | 24% | 7.7% | 0.47 | 2.81% | ±0.0 | Expected |
| 8 | Sal Frelick | 8 | 7.5% | —Pending | 0.000 | 0% | 0% | 22.4% | 3.4% | 82.1 mph | 99.8 mph | 24.1% | 24.1% | 0.367 | 0.063 | 8.5% | 93.8% | 65.1 mph | 1.21% | 5.1% | 34.6% | 0.457% | 24% | 7.7% | 0.47 | 2.81% | ±0.0 | Expected |
| 9 | David Hamilton | 9 | 8.6% | —Pending | 0.000 | 0.7% | 0% | 27.5% | 2.9% | 81.7 mph | 100.1 mph | 37.3% | 18.6% | 0.453 | 0.094 | 20.4% | 81.8% | 60.9 mph | 1.21% | 5.1% | 34.6% | 0.457% | 24% | 7.7% | 0.47 | 2.81% | ±0.0 | Expected |