MLB hitter props

William Contreras

vs Drew RasmussenProjected lineup8:00 PM ET

HR probability

11.7%

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Season HR%

3.6%

Park factor

2.8

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

0.5

DraftKings

Model projection

1.1

Expected hits

Hit rate

80%

8 of 10 overs

Average Hits

1.4

Last 10 games

Average margin

+0.9

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	1.1	0.5DraftKings	+0.6	—	80% (8/10)· 4O streak
H+R+R	2.1	1.5DraftKings	+0.6	—	60% (6/10)· 2O streak
Total Bases	1.7	—	+0.0	—	60% (6/10)· 2O streak
Stolen Bases	0.0	—	+0.0	—	0% (0/10)· 10U streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

69%Line

2+ Hits

31%

3+ Hits

7.6%

4+ Hits

0.9%

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

11.1%

Hard Hit%

46.9%

Exit Velo

90.8 mph

EV90

104.8 mph

Sweet Spot%

37.7%

Fly Ball%

28.4%

xSLG

0.550

ISO

0.199

16.1%

Contact%

78.8%

Bat Speed

72 mph

Swing Length

7.29 ft

Platoon HR%

3.9%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Drew Rasmussen

View Drew Rasmussen's report →

Avg

0.400

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Drew Rasmussen

View Drew Rasmussen's report →

HR% Allowed

1.2%

Barrel% Allowed

5.1%

Hard Hit% Allowed

34.6%

xSLG Allowed

0.457

Fly Ball% Allowed

24.0%

HR/FB

7.7%

HR/9 (est.)

0.47

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

80% (8/10)· 4O streak

Hits Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

0.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 0.5Model 1.1

Oct 23

vs TB

OVER

Hits

+1.5

Oct 15

@ LAD

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Oct 14

@ LAD

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Oct 12

vs LAD

OVER

Hits

+2.5

Oct 11

vs LAD

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Drew Rasmussen's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	William Contreras's K% vs Pitch
4-Seam Fastball	29.5%	25.9%	24.8%	95.6	11%
Sinker	26.3%	18%	22.4%	95	9.3%
Cutter	25.2%	22%	10.7%	89.7	18.4%
Changeup	15.2%	30.4%	19.5%	89.1	15%
Curveball	1.9%	33.3%	0%	79.3	29.7%
Sweeper	1.9%	27.3%	14.3%	84.3	16.3%

Green = a plus pitch for Drew Rasmussen (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for William Contreras (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one William Contreras handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
4-Seam Fastball	29.5%	39%	0.173	49.1%	0.324
Sinker	26.3%	33.3%	0.246	47%	0.398
Cutter	25.2%	28.6%	0.188	44.7%	0.503
Changeup	15.2%	33.3%	0.167	41.5%	0.305
Curveball	1.9%	--	--	28.6%	0.233
Sweeper	1.9%	20%	0.450	31.2%	0.242

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