1st-inning run model

YRFI / NRFI

Sunday, September 6, 2026

Predicts whether a run scores in the 1st inning, based on today's actual starting lineups and pitchers - not season-long averages. A pick only becomes a play once the model is confident enough (65%+ for YRFI, 35%- for NRFI). No sportsbook line exists for this market yet, so units below assume standard -110 odds.

Games

Qualifying plays

All-time record

8-10

Slate date

Hit rate

44.4%

Units

-3.0u

Total graded

Brewers@

Reds

12:10 PM ET

Kyle Harrison vs. Brady Singer

Model leans

NRFI 58.5%

41.5% YRFI · 58.5% NRFI

Why

Brewers: NRFI in 3 of last 5

Reds: NRFI in 4 of last 5

Kyle Harrison: no 1st-inning run in 3 of last 5 starts

Brady Singer: hasn't allowed a 1st-inning run in 4 straight starts

No play

Braves@

Phillies

1:10 PM ET

Tyler Mahle vs. Aaron Nola

Model leans

NRFI 63.3%

36.7% YRFI · 63.3% NRFI

Why

Braves: NRFI in 2 of last 5

Phillies: NRFI in 5 straight - NRFI in 5 of last 5

Tyler Mahle: hasn't allowed a 1st-inning run in 4 straight starts

Aaron Nola: no 1st-inning run in 3 of last 5 starts

No play

Red Sox@

Orioles

1:35 PM ET

Payton Tolle vs. Kyle Bradish

Model leans

NRFI 61.0%

39.0% YRFI · 61.0% NRFI

Why

Red Sox: NRFI in 3 of last 5

Orioles: NRFI in 5 straight - NRFI in 5 of last 5

Payton Tolle: hasn't allowed a 1st-inning run in 3 straight starts

Kyle Bradish: no 1st-inning run in 3 of last 5 starts

No play

Angels@

Pirates

1:35 PM ET

Walbert Ureña vs. Paul Skenes

Model leans

NRFI 66.1%

33.9% YRFI · 66.1% NRFI

Why

Angels: NRFI in 2 of last 5

Pirates: NRFI in 3 of last 5

Walbert Ureña: no 1st-inning run in 3 of last 5 starts

Paul Skenes: no 1st-inning run in 2 of last 5 starts

Play: NRFI

Tigers@

Guardians

1:40 PM ET

Jackson Jobe vs. Gavin Williams

Model leans

NRFI 65.4%

34.6% YRFI · 65.4% NRFI

Why

Tigers: NRFI in 4 straight - NRFI in 4 of last 5

Guardians: NRFI in 4 of last 5

Gavin Williams: hasn't allowed a 1st-inning run in 5 straight starts

Play: NRFI

Giants@

Mets

1:40 PM ET

Cesar Perdomo vs. Christian Scott

Model leans

NRFI 58.6%

41.4% YRFI · 58.6% NRFI

Why

Giants: NRFI in 2 of last 5

Mets: NRFI in 1 of last 5

Christian Scott: no 1st-inning run in 3 of last 5 starts

No play

Cubs@

Marlins

1:40 PM ET

Clay Holmes vs. Tyler Phillips

Model leans

NRFI 57.5%

42.5% YRFI · 57.5% NRFI

Why

Cubs: NRFI in 4 of last 5

Marlins: NRFI in 4 of last 5

Tyler Phillips: no 1st-inning run in 4 of last 5 starts

No play

Diamondbacks@

Astros

2:10 PM ET

Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Peter Lambert

Model leans

NRFI 60.9%

39.1% YRFI · 60.9% NRFI

Why

Diamondbacks: NRFI in 2 of last 5

Astros: NRFI in 2 of last 5

Eduardo Rodriguez: has allowed a 1st-inning run in 3 straight starts

Peter Lambert: no 1st-inning run in 3 of last 5 starts

No play

Blue Jays@

Royals

2:10 PM ET

Spencer Arrighetti vs. Randy Dobnak

Model leans

NRFI 61.7%

38.3% YRFI · 61.7% NRFI

Why

Blue Jays: YRFI in 4 straight - NRFI in 1 of last 5

Royals: NRFI in 3 straight - NRFI in 3 of last 5

Spencer Arrighetti: hasn't allowed a 1st-inning run in 5 straight starts

No play

Rays@

Rangers

2:35 PM ET

Ian Seymour vs. MacKenzie Gore

Model leans

NRFI 62.9%

37.1% YRFI · 62.9% NRFI

Why

Rays: NRFI in 3 straight - NRFI in 4 of last 5

Rangers: NRFI in 1 of last 5

Ian Seymour: hasn't allowed a 1st-inning run in 3 straight starts

MacKenzie Gore: hasn't allowed a 1st-inning run in 3 straight starts

No play

Cardinals@

Rockies

3:10 PM ET

Kyle Leahy vs. Tanner Gordon

Model leans

NRFI 60.4%

39.6% YRFI · 60.4% NRFI

Why

Cardinals: NRFI in 2 of last 5

Rockies: NRFI in 2 of last 5

Kyle Leahy: no 1st-inning run in 4 of last 5 starts

Tanner Gordon: no 1st-inning run in 2 of last 4 starts

No play

Athletics@

Mariners

4:10 PM ET

Gage Jump vs. Bryan Woo

Model leans

NRFI 60.7%

39.3% YRFI · 60.7% NRFI

Why

Athletics: NRFI in 3 of last 5

Mariners: NRFI in 5 straight - NRFI in 5 of last 5

Gage Jump: hasn't allowed a 1st-inning run in 4 straight starts

Bryan Woo: no 1st-inning run in 2 of last 5 starts

No play

Yankees@

Padres

4:10 PM ET

Gerrit Cole vs. Michael King

Model leans

NRFI 60.5%

39.5% YRFI · 60.5% NRFI

Why

Yankees: YRFI in 4 straight - NRFI in 1 of last 5

Padres: YRFI in 3 straight - NRFI in 1 of last 5

Gerrit Cole: no 1st-inning run in 4 of last 5 starts

Michael King: no 1st-inning run in 4 of last 5 starts

No play

Twins@

White Sox

6:20 PM ET

Bailey Ober vs. Bryan Hudson

Model leans

NRFI 56.3%

43.7% YRFI · 56.3% NRFI

Why

Twins: NRFI in 4 of last 5

White Sox: NRFI in 4 of last 5

Bailey Ober: no 1st-inning run in 2 of last 2 starts

Bryan Hudson: hasn't allowed a 1st-inning run in 3 straight starts

No play

Nationals@

Dodgers

10:10 PM ET

Andrew Alvarez vs. Justin Wrobleski

Model leans

NRFI 59.6%

40.4% YRFI · 59.6% NRFI

Why

Nationals: YRFI in 3 straight - NRFI in 1 of last 5

Dodgers: NRFI in 1 of last 5

Andrew Alvarez: no 1st-inning run in 3 of last 5 starts

Justin Wrobleski: has allowed a 1st-inning run in 3 straight starts

No play

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Settled picks

RESULTS LOG

Most recent 18 of 18 graded YRFI/NRFI picks, newest first.

Date	Matchup	Pick	Result	Units	Running
2026-09-04	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	NRFI (34.1%)	WIN	+1.0u	-3.0u
2026-09-02	New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels	NRFI (33.4%)	WIN	+1.0u	-4.0u
2026-09-02	Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians	NRFI (31.9%)	LOSS	-1.1u	-5.0u
2026-09-01	New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels	NRFI (34.9%)	LOSS	-1.1u	-3.9u
2026-08-31	New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels	NRFI (34.6%)	WIN	+1.0u	-2.8u
2026-08-31	Athletics @ Texas Rangers	NRFI (34.7%)	WIN	+1.0u	-3.8u
2026-08-30	Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians	NRFI (34.5%)	LOSS	-1.1u	-4.8u
2026-08-29	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	NRFI (34.9%)	LOSS	-1.1u	-3.7u
2026-08-26	Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels	NRFI (33.4%)	LOSS	-1.1u	-2.6u
2026-08-25	Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels	NRFI (30.6%)	LOSS	-1.1u	-1.5u
2026-08-23	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers	NRFI (34.9%)	LOSS	-1.1u	-0.4u
2026-08-22	Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	NRFI (33.7%)	LOSS	-1.1u	+0.7u
2026-08-22	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers	NRFI (33.0%)	LOSS	-1.1u	+1.8u
2026-08-21	Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	NRFI (35.0%)	WIN	+1.0u	+2.9u
2026-08-21	Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers	NRFI (31.7%)	WIN	+1.0u	+1.9u
2026-08-21	Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers	NRFI (34.0%)	WIN	+1.0u	+0.9u
2026-08-20	Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays	NRFI (35.0%)	WIN	+1.0u	-0.1u
2026-08-20	San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians	NRFI (33.7%)	LOSS	-1.1u	-1.1u