MLB hitter props

Victor Mesa Jr.

vs Logan HendersonProjected lineup8:00 PM ET

HR probability

13.1%

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Season HR%

4.4%

Park factor

2.8

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

0.5

DraftKings

Model projection

Expected hits

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Hits

0.5

Last 10 games

Average margin

+0.0

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	1.0	0.5DraftKings	+0.5	—	50% (5/10)· 1O streak
H+R+R	1.7	0.5DraftKings	+1.2	—	80% (8/10)· 2O streak
Total Bases	1.4	—	+0.0	—	10% (1/10)· 7U streak
Stolen Bases	0.1	—	+0.0	—	20% (2/10)· 1U streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

66.2%Line

2+ Hits

26.7%

3+ Hits

6.3%

4+ Hits

0.9%

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

10.6%

Hard Hit%

45.2%

Exit Velo

88.7 mph

EV90

103.8 mph

Sweet Spot%

31.7%

Fly Ball%

37.5%

xSLG

0.570

ISO

0.240

16.3%

Contact%

77.3%

Bat Speed

70.6 mph

Swing Length

7.74 ft

Platoon HR%

5.4%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Logan Henderson

View Logan Henderson's report →

No recorded plate appearances between these two players.

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Logan Henderson

View Logan Henderson's report →

HR% Allowed

3.4%

Barrel% Allowed

7.4%

Hard Hit% Allowed

36.9%

xSLG Allowed

0.484

Fly Ball% Allowed

29.0%

HR/FB

17.6%

HR/9 (est.)

1.32

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

50% (5/10)· 1O streak

Hits Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

0.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 0.5Model 1

Oct 23

@ MIL

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Oct 19

vs CLE

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Oct 18

@ CLE

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Oct 17

@ CLE

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Oct 15

@ CLE

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Logan Henderson's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Victor Mesa Jr.'s K% vs Pitch
4-Seam Fastball	49.2%	14.6%	20%	93.2	17.7%
Changeup	36.7%	36.6%	19%	83.3	20.8%
Cutter	11.4%	21.6%	14.3%	88.6	21.4%
Sweeper	2.7%	9.1%	5.6%	81.5	12.5%

Green = a plus pitch for Logan Henderson (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Victor Mesa Jr. (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Victor Mesa Jr. handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
4-Seam Fastball	49.2%	47.1%	0.204	42.4%	0.332
Changeup	36.7%	20.4%	0.236	60.9%	0.470
Cutter	11.4%	50%	0.419	53.8%	0.394
Sweeper	2.7%	14.3%	0.250	27.3%	0.242

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