Fight outcome model

UFC

Predicts the winner of upcoming UFC fights using each fighter's real fight history - experience, recent form, striking and grappling stats, physical measurables - not just the betting favorite. A pick only becomes a play once the model is confident enough. Also shows an experimental method-of-victory read (KO/TKO, Submission, Decision) for informational purposes - no sportsbook market exists for that yet, so it isn't tracked as a play.

Upcoming fights

Qualifying plays

All-time record

41-22

Hit rate

65.1%

Units

+6.7u

Total graded

Jacob Malkoun vs Abubakar Vagaev

UFC

Sat, Oct 24, 11:30 AM ET

Jacob Malkoun: +140Abubakar Vagaev: -143

Model leans

Jacob Malkoun 79.3%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO20.4%

Submission29.0%

Decision50.5%

Play: Jacob Malkoun

Asaf Chopurov vs Colby Thicknesse

UFC

Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET

Asaf Chopurov: -556Colby Thicknesse: +520

Model leans

Colby Thicknesse 72.5%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO26.3%

Submission37.0%

Decision36.7%

Play: Colby Thicknesse

Nurullo Aliev vs Grant Dawson

UFC

Sat, Oct 24, 12:30 PM ET

Nurullo Aliev: +102Grant Dawson: -108

Model leans

Grant Dawson 63.5%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO19.0%

Submission38.7%

Decision42.3%

Play: Grant Dawson

Cam Rowston vs Abus Magomedov

UFC

Sat, Oct 24, 1:00 PM ET

Cam Rowston: +110Abus Magomedov: -115

Model leans

Cam Rowston 60.9%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO47.6%

Submission25.1%

Decision27.2%

Play: Cam Rowston

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev vs Nikita Krylov

UFC

Sat, Oct 24, 1:30 PM ET

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev: -530Nikita Krylov: +450

Model leans

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 61.8%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO35.1%

Submission49.6%

Decision15.3%

Play: Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Dominick Reyes vs Azamat Murzakanov

UFC

Sat, Oct 24, 2:00 PM ET

Dominick Reyes: +186Azamat Murzakanov: -192

Model leans

Dominick Reyes 55.9%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO58.4%

Submission14.6%

Decision27.0%

No play

Losene Keita vs Aaron Pico

UFC

Sat, Oct 24, 2:30 PM ET

Losene Keita: +132Aaron Pico: -139

Model leans

Aaron Pico 54.8%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO37.5%

Submission28.1%

Decision34.4%

No play

Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan

UFC

Sat, Oct 24, 3:00 PM ET

Merab Dvalishvili: +134Petr Yan: -137

Model leans

Petr Yan 54.6%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO22.6%

Submission14.5%

Decision62.9%

No play

Rizvan Kuniev vs Alexander Volkov

UFC

Sat, Oct 24, 3:00 PM ET

Rizvan Kuniev: +112Alexander Volkov: -120

Model leans

Alexander Volkov 55.5%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO44.9%

Submission15.7%

Decision39.4%

No play

Movsar Evloev vs Alexander Volkanovski

UFC

Sat, Oct 24, 3:20 PM ET

Movsar Evloev: +102Alexander Volkanovski: -105

Model leans

Movsar Evloev 68.5%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO30.2%

Submission15.1%

Decision54.7%

Play: Movsar Evloev

Ramazan Temirov vs Lone'er Kavanagh

UFC

Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET

Ramazan Temirov: +102Lone'er Kavanagh: -104

Model leans

Lone'er Kavanagh 58.5%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO27.3%

Submission20.6%

Decision52.1%

No play

Tainara Lisboa vs Lucia Szabova

UFC

Sat, Oct 31, 5:00 PM ET

Tainara Lisboa: +415Lucia Szabova: -550

Model leans

Tainara Lisboa 60.4%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO27.8%

Submission35.9%

Decision36.3%

Play: Tainara Lisboa

Piera Rodriguez vs Talita Alencar

UFC

Sat, Oct 31, 5:30 PM ET

Piera Rodriguez: -225Talita Alencar: +189

Model leans

Piera Rodriguez 58.9%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO12.2%

Submission15.0%

Decision72.8%

No play

Joe Kropschot vs Nick Klein

UFC

Sat, Oct 31, 6:00 PM ET

Joe Kropschot: -325Nick Klein: +252

Model leans

Nick Klein 77.6%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO29.0%

Submission45.4%

Decision25.6%

Play: Nick Klein

JeongYeong Lee vs Julian Erosa

UFC

Sat, Oct 31, 6:30 PM ET

JeongYeong Lee: -245Julian Erosa: +233

Model leans

Julian Erosa 54.5%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO33.4%

Submission25.1%

Decision41.5%

No play

Theodor Berggren vs Rodrigo Sezinando

UFC

Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM ET

Theodor Berggren: +150Rodrigo Sezinando: -171

Model leans

Theodor Berggren 60.9%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO33.6%

Submission30.0%

Decision36.4%

Play: Theodor Berggren

Andre Petroski vs Azamat Bekoev

UFC

Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM ET

Andre Petroski: +289Azamat Bekoev: -360

Model leans

Andre Petroski 50.9%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO35.2%

Submission33.6%

Decision31.2%

No play

Cody Durden vs Ode Osbourne

UFC

Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM ET

Cody Durden: -103Ode Osbourne: -117

Model leans

Cody Durden 55.0%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO28.2%

Submission25.9%

Decision46.0%

No play

Gaston Bolanos vs Francis Marshall

UFC

Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM ET

Gaston Bolanos: +203Francis Marshall: -223

Model leans

Francis Marshall 63.8%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO28.8%

Submission30.3%

Decision41.0%

Play: Francis Marshall

Farman Hasanov vs Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

UFC

Sat, Oct 31, 8:30 PM ET

Farman Hasanov: +200Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani: -250

Model leans

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani 61.1%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO25.8%

Submission34.6%

Decision39.5%

Play: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Luana Santos vs Yana Santos

UFC

Sat, Oct 31, 9:00 PM ET

Luana Santos: -200Yana Santos: +174

Model leans

Luana Santos 73.9%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO25.1%

Submission34.9%

Decision40.1%

Play: Luana Santos

Carlos Leal vs Randy Brown

UFC

Sat, Oct 31, 9:30 PM ET

Carlos Leal: -104Randy Brown: -100

Model leans

Carlos Leal 53.8%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO38.7%

Submission19.5%

Decision41.7%

No play

Tom Nolan vs Renato Moicano

UFC

Sat, Oct 31, 10:00 PM ET

Tom Nolan: -123Renato Moicano: +103

Model leans

Tom Nolan 71.8%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO34.3%

Submission34.2%

Decision31.4%

Play: Tom Nolan

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Settled picks

RESULTS LOG

Most recent 63 of 63 graded UFC picks, newest first.

Date	Matchup	Pick	Odds	Result	Units	Running
2026-10-18	Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Erin Blanchfield	Erin Blanchfield (74.8%)	-303	LOSS	-3.0u	+6.7u
2026-10-18	Kyle Daukaus vs Marc-Andre Barriault	Kyle Daukaus (60.9%)	-185	LOSS	-1.8u	+9.7u
2026-10-17	Joel Faglier vs Javad Mahjoub	Joel Faglier (67.0%)	-120	WIN	+1.0u	+11.6u
2026-10-17	SuYoung You vs Cody Chovancek	SuYoung You (60.7%)	+126	WIN	+1.0u	+10.6u
2026-10-17	Steven Koslow vs Chad Anheliger	Steven Koslow (66.9%)	-159	WIN	+1.0u	+9.6u
2026-10-11	Jai Herbert vs Matheus Camilo	Matheus Camilo (66.3%)	-190	LOSS	-1.9u	+8.6u
2026-10-11	Otari Tanzilovi vs Malcolm Wellmaker	Otari Tanzilovi (65.9%)	+172	WIN	+1.0u	+10.5u
2026-10-11	Ketlen Souza vs Loopy Godinez	Loopy Godinez (62.6%)	-210	WIN	+1.0u	+9.5u
2026-10-10	Ismael Bonfim vs Francisco Prado	Francisco Prado (61.1%)	-144	WIN	+1.0u	+8.5u
2026-10-10	RJ Harris vs Allen Frye Jr.	RJ Harris (76.7%)	-260	LOSS	-2.6u	+7.5u
2026-10-10	Daria Zhelezniakova vs Alice Pereira	Alice Pereira (68.7%)	-130	WIN	+1.0u	+10.1u
2026-10-04	Wang Cong vs Natalia Silva	Natalia Silva (60.1%)	-200	WIN	+1.0u	+9.1u
2026-10-04	Payton Talbott vs Deiveson Figueiredo	Payton Talbott (73.3%)	-800	WIN	+1.0u	+8.1u
2026-10-04	Roman Kopylov vs Ateba Gautier	Ateba Gautier (65.9%)	-230	LOSS	-2.3u	+7.1u
2026-10-04	Roberto Soldic vs Khaos Williams	Khaos Williams (80.4%)	+245	LOSS	-0.4u	+9.4u
2026-10-04	Alden Coria vs Imanol Rodriguez	Alden Coria (66.1%)	+120	LOSS	-0.8u	+9.8u
2026-10-03	Andrey Pulyaev vs Damian Pinas	Damian Pinas (68.4%)	-600	WIN	+1.0u	+10.6u
2026-10-03	Lucas Armand vs Anthony Wint	Anthony Wint (64.6%)	-550	WIN	+1.0u	+9.6u
2026-10-03	Bruce Whitehead vs Jacobe Smith	Jacobe Smith (77.9%)	-1200	WIN	+1.0u	+8.6u
2026-10-03	Eric Nolan vs Court McGee	Eric Nolan (63.6%)	-225	WIN	+1.0u	+7.6u
2026-09-27	Raoni Barcelos vs Raul Rosas Jr.	Raul Rosas Jr. (67.7%)	-145	WIN	+1.0u	+6.6u
2026-09-27	Ailin Perez vs Norma Dumont	Ailin Perez (61.9%)	-165	WIN	+1.0u	+5.6u
2026-09-27	Sedriques Dumas vs Luis Hernandez	Sedriques Dumas (75.4%)	+201	LOSS	-0.5u	+4.6u
2026-09-27	Rinya Nakamura vs Brady Hiestand	Brady Hiestand (66.2%)	+309	WIN	+1.0u	+5.1u
2026-09-26	Christian Edwards vs Rodolfo Bellato	Rodolfo Bellato (74.4%)	-173	LOSS	-1.7u	+4.1u
2026-09-26	Yazmin Jauregui vs Vanessa Demopoulos	Yazmin Jauregui (67.3%)	-950	WIN	+1.0u	+5.8u
2026-09-20	Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van	Joshua Van (70.0%)	--	WIN	+1.0u	+4.8u
2026-09-20	Mauricio Ruffy vs Arman Tsarukyan	Arman Tsarukyan (68.2%)	--	WIN	+1.0u	+3.8u
2026-09-20	Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua van	Joshua van (70.0%)	-165	WIN	+1.0u	+2.8u
2026-09-20	Mauricio Ruffy vs Arman Tsarukyan	Arman Tsarukyan (67.9%)	-310	WIN	+1.0u	+1.8u
2026-09-20	Iwo Baraniewski vs Alonzo Menifield	Iwo Baraniewski (63.3%)	--	LOSS	-1.1u	+0.8u
2026-09-20	Iwo Baraniewski vs Alonzo Menifield	Iwo Baraniewski (63.3%)	-255	LOSS	-2.5u	+1.9u
2026-09-20	Doo Ho Choi vs Patricio Pitbull	Doo Ho Choi (66.7%)	-250	LOSS	-2.5u	+4.5u
2026-09-20	Brunno Ferreira vs Edmen Shahbazyan	Edmen Shahbazyan (74.3%)	-170	WIN	+1.0u	+7.0u
2026-09-20	Eduarda Moura vs Casey O'neill	Casey O'neill (61.0%)	--	WIN	+1.0u	+6.0u
2026-09-19	Ryan Gandra vs Ozzy Diaz	Ryan Gandra (60.7%)	--	WIN	+1.0u	+5.0u
2026-09-19	Brunno Ferreira vs Edmen Shahbazyan	Edmen Shahbazyan (74.3%)	--	WIN	+1.0u	+4.0u
2026-09-19	Eduarda Moura vs Casey O'Neill	Casey O'Neill (61.0%)	--	WIN	+1.0u	+3.0u
2026-09-12	Joseph Morales vs Brandon Moreno	Brandon Moreno (60.4%)	--	WIN	+1.0u	+2.0u
2026-09-12	Marwan Rahiki vs Tommy McMillen	Tommy McMillen (65.7%)	--	WIN	+1.0u	+1.0u
2026-09-12	Curtis Blaydes vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta	Curtis Blaydes (63.4%)	--	WIN	+1.0u	0.0u
2026-09-12	Dan Ige vs David Martinez	David Martinez (71.1%)	--	WIN	+1.0u	-1.0u
2026-09-12	Edgar Chairez vs Tim Elliott	Edgar Chairez (62.0%)	--	LOSS	-1.1u	-2.0u
2026-09-12	Muslim Salikhov vs Ignacio Bahamondes	Ignacio Bahamondes (73.9%)	--	WIN	+1.0u	-0.9u
2026-09-12	Djorden Santos vs Yousri Belgaroui	Yousri Belgaroui (64.9%)	--	WIN	+1.0u	-1.9u
2026-09-05	Daniel Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse	Daniel Hooker (69.1%)	+425	LOSS	-0.2u	-2.9u
2026-09-05	Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano	Daniil Donchenko (63.8%)	-233	WIN	+1.0u	-2.7u
2026-09-05	Losene Keita vs Muhammadjon Naimov	Muhammadjon Naimov (60.2%)	+287	LOSS	-0.3u	-3.7u
2026-09-05	Luis Felipe Dias vs Matthieu Duclos	Matthieu Duclos (78.4%)	+140	WIN	+1.0u	-3.3u
2026-09-05	Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann	Mario Pinto (68.4%)	-350	WIN	+1.0u	-4.3u
2026-09-05	Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas	Oumar Sy (61.1%)	-258	LOSS	-2.6u	-5.3u
2026-09-05	Nathaniel Wood vs Pavel Andrusca	Nathaniel Wood (67.3%)	-290	LOSS	-2.9u	-2.7u
2026-09-05	Klaudia Syguła vs Nora Cornolle	Klaudia Syguła (67.5%)	+4000	LOSS	0.0u	+0.2u
2026-09-05	Delphine Benouaich vs Sofia Montenegro	Sofia Montenegro (74.5%)	+112	LOSS	-0.9u	+0.2u
2026-08-29	Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes	Denise Gomes (73.6%)	+123	WIN	+1.0u	+1.1u
2026-08-29	Namsrai Batbayar vs Andre Lima	Andre Lima (63.1%)	-285	WIN	+1.0u	+0.1u
2026-08-29	Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas	Rei Tsuruya (62.7%)	-770	WIN	+1.0u	-0.9u
2026-08-23	Gregory Rodrigues vs Anthony Hernandez	Anthony Hernandez (62.3%)	-216	LOSS	-2.2u	-1.9u
2026-08-22	Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev	Kennedy Nzechukwu (62.6%)	+100	LOSS	-1.0u	+0.2u
2026-08-22	Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast	Chris Padilla (62.4%)	-119	WIN	+1.0u	+1.2u
2026-08-22	Stan Dorsainvil vs Gauge Young	Gauge Young (76.6%)	-177	LOSS	-1.8u	+0.2u
2026-08-22	Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey	Jackson McVey (64.2%)	-170	WIN	+1.0u	+2.0u
2026-08-22	Elise Reed vs Shanelle Dyer	Shanelle Dyer (81.0%)	-775	WIN	+1.0u	+1.0u