MLB pitcher strikeout

Ethan Pecko

vs Arizona Diamondbacks2026-09-05PinnacleRHP

Projection

3.6

Ensemble: 3.8

Market line

3.5

Pinnacle

Model edge

No qualifying edge

50% (2/4)· 1U streak

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Recommendation

No recommendation

Confidence

B+

70/100

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Pitcher K%

15.3%

Whiff%

28.1%

CSW%

23.5%

WHIP

1.69

Avg IP

4.3

Avg pitches

86.7

Last 5 avg Ks

2.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

16.6%

Team chase

27.6%

Recent chase

29.3%

Recent contact

79.8%

Recent K% (7d)

29.7%

Opp K% vs RHP

19.2%

Opp K% vs LHP

20.5%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

3.6

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

50%

2 of 4 overs

Average Ks

2.8

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.8

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

50% (2/4)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 3.6

Sep 5

vs ARI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 30

@ NYM

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 25

@ NYY

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Aug 19

vs LAA

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

14.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

13.8

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

25%

1 of 4 overs

Average Outs

13.0

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

25% (1/4)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

14.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 14.5Model 13.8

Sep 5

vs ARI

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Aug 30

@ NYM

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 25

@ NYY

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Aug 19

vs LAA

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

No prior starts found against Arizona Diamondbacks.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
Pinnacle	3.5	-115	-115	+0.1	-0.1	—
FanDuel	3.5	-115	-111	+0.1	-0.1	—
DraftKings	3.5	-123	-104	+0.1	-0.1	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

48.1%Line

5+ Ks

26.5%

6+ Ks

12.6%

7+ Ks

4.8%

8+ Ks

1.7%

9+ Ks

0.5%

10+ Ks

0.1%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sinker	28.1%	22%	26.7%	93
4-Seam Fastball	23.1%	21.7%	0%	93.7
Sweeper	16.5%	42.1%	9.1%	83.2
Cutter	15.8%	18.8%	12.5%	90
Curveball	11.2%	23.1%	15.4%	81.9
Changeup	5.4%	0%	0%	87

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

28.1%

2-Strike Foul%

21.2%

2-Strike Contact%

83.3%

Expected Ks

K Luck

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	8	25%	75%
1-2	19	42.1%	57.9%
2-2	20	35%	65%
3-2 (full)	16	25%	75%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sinker	4-Seam Fastball	Sweeper	Cutter	Curveball	Changeup
Lars NootbaarL	25.6%	18.5%	6.1% vs R: 5.3%	21.5% vs R: 19.5%	15% vs R: 10%	16.7% vs R: 16.7%	16% vs R: 13%	10.7% vs R: 11.3%
Geraldo PerdomoS	11.6%	12.7%	17.4% vs R: 18.2%	7.8% vs R: 8.9%	8.5% vs R: 6.5%	12.2% vs R: 12.1%	9.1% vs R: 7.7%	6% vs R: 4.6%
Gabriel MorenoR	15.8%	15.1%	5.6% vs R: 5.9%	13.9% vs R: 14%	7.3% vs R: 7%	5% vs R: 9.1%	13% vs R: 10%	9.7% vs R: 13.2%
Ketel MarteS	12.6%	15.7%	11.1% vs R: 12.5%	12.5% vs R: 13%	19.6% vs R: 18.2%	20% vs R: 23.1%	9.1% vs R: 3.6%	17.4% vs R: 17.8%
Corbin CarrollL	21.6%	22.3%	17.1% vs R: 19%	22.5% vs R: 21.3%	17.2% vs R: 14.8%	26.5% vs R: 29.6%	22.9% vs R: 22.2%	14.8% vs R: 12.2%
Nolan ArenadoR	20.4%	20.4%	13.6% vs R: 11.9%	13% vs R: 14.7%	25% vs R: 25.7%	9.7% vs R: 8.7%	26.9% vs R: 20%	13.3% vs R: 13%
Max KeplerL	25%	20.9%	13.6% vs R: 13.6%	13.3% vs R: 11.6%	21.4% vs R: 20%	25% vs R: 28.6%	33.3% vs R: 33.3%	18.8% vs R: 20%
Tim TawaR	26.3%	24.5%	10.2% vs R: 8.6%	21.2% vs R: 19.4%	18% vs R: 17.9%	16% vs R: 15.8%	11.1% vs R: 10%	22.2% vs R: 28%
Ryan WaldschmidtR	21.1%	32.2%	26.3% vs R: 28.6%	27% vs R: 26.8%	27.8% vs R: 32.6%	16.7% vs R: 25%	35.3% vs R: 38.5%	23.3% vs R: 40%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sinker	4-Seam Fastball	Sweeper	Cutter	Curveball	Changeup
Lars NootbaarL	7.9% vs R: 8.2%	13.7% vs R: 11.4%	26.3% vs R: 7.7%	15.2% vs R: 12.9%	16.7% vs R: 16.7%	18.3% vs R: 19%
Geraldo PerdomoS	8.3% vs R: 9.2%	9.3% vs R: 12%	7.7% vs R: 7.7%	13.8% vs R: 17.2%	13.2% vs R: 9.5%	9.9% vs R: 8.7%
Gabriel MorenoR	2.6% vs R: 0.8%	13% vs R: 13.6%	14.3% vs R: 12.8%	18% vs R: 22.2%	22.7% vs R: 21.7%	14.3% vs R: 15.9%
Ketel MarteS	3.9% vs R: 4.3%	9.9% vs R: 9.6%	31.9% vs R: 30%	12.5% vs R: 11.4%	22.8% vs R: 25%	29.5% vs R: 28.8%
Corbin CarrollL	18.1% vs R: 18.6%	29.4% vs R: 28.9%	26.6% vs R: 22.7%	19.7% vs R: 18.6%	22.4% vs R: 18.9%	22.2% vs R: 21.6%
Nolan ArenadoR	12.1% vs R: 10.9%	12.2% vs R: 14.4%	29.7% vs R: 28.1%	24.6% vs R: 30%	21.4% vs R: 15.4%	26.4% vs R: 25.5%
Max KeplerL	12.5% vs R: 13.3%	15.9% vs R: 17.2%	38.1% vs R: 35.7%	17.6% vs R: 17.6%	50% vs R: 50%	26.3% vs R: 25.9%
Tim TawaR	9.2% vs R: 10.1%	18.4% vs R: 18.8%	39.7% vs R: 42.9%	31.2% vs R: 31.6%	12.5% vs R: 12.5%	46.5% vs R: 48%
Ryan WaldschmidtR	14.6% vs R: 13%	18.6% vs R: 21.5%	46.3% vs R: 50%	17.8% vs R: 25.8%	52.9% vs R: 57.1%	34.1% vs R: 33.3%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

No head-to-head history found for this lineup.

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Lars Nootbaar	19.6%	24.3%	15.6%	82.5%
Geraldo Perdomo	21.1%	23.7%	10.4%	90.9%
Gabriel Moreno	27.3%	21.6%	14.6%	88.1%
Ketel Marte	28.8%	24.1%	N/A	89.5%
Corbin Carroll	28.4%	33.6%	30.6%	75.3%
Nolan Arenado	31.7%	40.7%	16.7%	76.2%
Max Kepler	37.2%	37.9%	11.8%	79.3%
Tim Tawa	32%	33%	37%	66.7%
Ryan Waldschmidt	22.6%	24.5%	34.5%	69.4%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-08-19	Los Angeles Angels	0	4
2026-08-25	New York Yankees	3.8	1
2026-08-30	New York Mets	1	4
2026-09-05	Arizona Diamondbacks	3.6	2

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 15.3%

✓Whiff rate is 28.1%

!CSW rate is 23.5%

!Opponent K% is 18.9%

!Average pitch count is 86.7

!WHIP is 1.69

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	Arizona Diamondbacks	Home	4.1	2	81	1.5	—	—
2026-08-30	New York Mets	Away	5	4	83	1.54	12	33.3%
2026-08-25	New York Yankees	Away	4.1	1	88	1.88	9	11.1%
2026-08-19	Los Angeles Angels	Home	3.2	4	89	1.64	11	36.4%