MLB pitcher strikeout

Zebby Matthews

@ Chicago White Sox2026-09-04PinnacleRHP

Projection

5.5

Ensemble: 5.2

Market line

4.5

Pinnacle

Model edge

+1.0

Over 4.5

30% (3/10)· 1U streak

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Recommendation

Over 4.5

Pinnacle

Confidence

A+

95/100

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Pitcher K%

19%

Whiff%

21.1%

CSW%

25.9%

WHIP

1.32

Avg IP

5.6

Avg pitches

94.4

Last 5 avg Ks

4.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

24.2%

Platoon K%

18.8%

Team chase

28.3%

Recent chase

25.2%

Recent contact

77.1%

Recent K% (7d)

19.8%

Opp K% vs RHP

25%

Opp K% vs LHP

23.3%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

4.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

5.5

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Ks

4.4

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

4.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 4.5Model 5.5

Sep 4

@ CWS

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Aug 30

vs CWS

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 24

@ ATH

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 18

vs ATL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 12

vs BAL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

17.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

16.6

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Outs

16.1

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.4

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

17.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 17.5Model 16.6

Sep 4

@ CWS

UNDER

Outs

-9.5

Aug 30

vs CWS

OVER

Outs

+7.5

Aug 24

@ ATH

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Aug 18

vs ATL

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 12

vs BAL

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Chicago White Sox

No prior starts found against Chicago White Sox.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
Pinnacle	4.5	-121	-109	+1.0	-1.0	Best Over
DraftKings	4.5	-119	-108	+1.0	-1.0	—
FanDuel	4.5	-113	-113	+1.0	-1.0	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

84.7%

5+ Ks

68.4%Line

6+ Ks

48.2%

7+ Ks

30.7%

8+ Ks

16.9%

9+ Ks

7.9%

10+ Ks

2.8%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	35.7%	11.4%	12.1%	95.1
Slider	22.6%	32.7%	21.6%	87.3
Changeup	12.6%	15.1%	15.6%	87.4
Cutter	12.5%	14.9%	14.8%	90.8
Curveball	10.7%	31.4%	19.3%	80.2
Sinker	5.9%	20%	25%	95.2

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

39.3%

2-Strike Foul%

24.3%

2-Strike Contact%

76.1%

Expected Ks

24.6

K Luck

-0.6

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	24	45.8%	50%
1-2	32	34.4%	65.6%
2-2	30	23.3%	76.7%
3-2 (full)	17	35.3%	64.7%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Changeup	Cutter	Curveball	Sinker
Sam AntonacciL	21.2%	14.3%	16% vs R: 15.3%	17.2% vs R: 11.1%	12.3% vs R: 11.1%	13.9% vs R: 12.5%	12.1% vs R: 9.7%	14.9% vs R: 16.7%
Miguel VargasR	16%	18%	16.7% vs R: 16.8%	16.5% vs R: 17.2%	9.3% vs R: 17.6%	19.4% vs R: 20.7%	11.1% vs R: 4.2%	19% vs R: 16.9%
Munetaka MurakamiL	36.4%	33.1%	26.7% vs R: 27.7%	26.4% vs R: 24.7%	18.9% vs R: 17.7%	14.3% vs R: 18.8%	17.5% vs R: 23.3%	26.1% vs R: 22.7%
Andrew BenintendiL	34.8%	21.9%	22.3% vs R: 21.1%	30.3% vs R: 25.4%	23.2% vs R: 22.9%	21.2% vs R: 23.3%	15.4% vs R: 16.7%	21.4% vs R: 21.7%
Colson MontgomeryL	27.8%	36.4%	32.3% vs R: 34.3%	27.5% vs R: 31.6%	25.4% vs R: 26.7%	30.4% vs R: 27.8%	16.2% vs R: 20.8%	28.2% vs R: 23.7%
Braden MontgomeryS	27.2%	17.3%	12.1% vs R: 7.4%	20% vs R: 18.5%	18.5% vs R: 16.7%	13.6% vs R: 11.8%	10.7% vs R: 0%	34.5% vs R: 28.6%
Tristan PetersL	20.8%	17.6%	18.2% vs R: 17.7%	22.2% vs R: 20.9%	19% vs R: 19.6%	20% vs R: 20%	24.4% vs R: 24.4%	10.6% vs R: 3.3%
Chase MeidrothR	18.8%	23.2%	20.3% vs R: 22.2%	20% vs R: 20.5%	19.6% vs R: 25%	8.9% vs R: 10.3%	6.1% vs R: 8.7%	12.6% vs R: 14%
Kyle TeelL	—	—	27.6%	35%	11.1%	25%	25%	18.2%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Changeup	Cutter	Curveball	Sinker
Sam AntonacciL	12.5% vs R: 13%	14.4% vs R: 11.3%	15.9% vs R: 14.5%	14% vs R: 13.3%	23.8% vs R: 21.1%	8.6% vs R: 10.4%
Miguel VargasR	18.6% vs R: 20.5%	25.2% vs R: 28.2%	11.2% vs R: 23.5%	28.9% vs R: 30.6%	15.6% vs R: 8.8%	7.7% vs R: 6.1%
Munetaka MurakamiL	37.6% vs R: 36.7%	54.2% vs R: 53.5%	45.9% vs R: 48.8%	23.9% vs R: 19.4%	25.6% vs R: 29%	29.4% vs R: 26.8%
Andrew BenintendiL	21.9% vs R: 21.5%	38.6% vs R: 31.4%	28.6% vs R: 28.6%	28.4% vs R: 26.6%	29.4% vs R: 30.3%	17.8% vs R: 17.6%
Colson MontgomeryL	30.2% vs R: 30.7%	42.7% vs R: 49.1%	38.1% vs R: 36.8%	27.9% vs R: 25.5%	44.9% vs R: 43.6%	25.6% vs R: 23.6%
Braden MontgomeryS	21.3% vs R: 12.6%	26.2% vs R: 24.5%	30.4% vs R: 34.3%	23.3% vs R: 25%	23.5% vs R: 20%	21.4% vs R: 20.3%
Tristan PetersL	18.7% vs R: 18.3%	32.3% vs R: 30.6%	24% vs R: 24.3%	15.4% vs R: 14.3%	22.4% vs R: 21.2%	14.6% vs R: 11.4%
Chase MeidrothR	14% vs R: 16%	26.4% vs R: 27.5%	30.6% vs R: 31%	14.9% vs R: 18%	9.1% vs R: 9.5%	7.5% vs R: 8.1%
Kyle TeelL	37%	36.4%	38.5%	47.1%	50%	13.3%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Colson Montgomery	12	4	33.3%	.182
Andrew Benintendi	11	1	9.1%	.000
Miguel Vargas	10	3	30%	.111
Sam Antonacci	7	0	0%	.429
Munetaka Murakami	7	2	28.6%	.143
Chase Meidroth	7	0	0%	.143
Tristan Peters	6	1	16.7%	.200
Kyle Teel	6	1	16.7%	.250
Braden Montgomery	3	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Sam Antonacci	20.8%	18.8%	15.7%	86.1%
Miguel Vargas	22.9%	11.6%	13%	89%
Munetaka Murakami	22.3%	23.2%	44.4%	59.6%
Andrew Benintendi	34.4%	41.9%	17.9%	83.5%
Colson Montgomery	33.2%	31.2%	41.7%	64.9%
Braden Montgomery	26.9%	20.2%	8.3%	76.8%
Tristan Peters	30.9%	24.3%	15.9%	75.3%
Chase Meidroth	30.1%	30.4%	14.9%	81.7%
Kyle Teel	33.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-10	Los Angeles Angels	4.4	3
2026-07-19	Chicago Cubs	3.4	4
2026-07-24	Athletics	5	1
2026-07-31	Seattle Mariners	4.5	10
2026-08-07	Milwaukee Brewers	4.7	4
2026-08-12	Baltimore Orioles	4.6	4
2026-08-18	Atlanta Braves	4.7	4
2026-08-24	Athletics	4	7
2026-08-30	Chicago White Sox	4.4	5
2026-09-04	Chicago White Sox	5.45	4

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 19%

!Whiff rate is 21.1%

!CSW rate is 25.9%

✓Opponent K% is 23.5%

✓Average pitch count is 94.4

!WHIP is 1.32

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-04	Chicago White Sox	Away	2.2	2	45	1.25	—	—
2026-08-30	Chicago White Sox	Home	8.1	5	103	1.26	12	41.7%
2026-08-24	Athletics	Away	7	7	105	1.31	18	38.9%
2026-08-18	Atlanta Braves	Home	5.2	4	90	1.33	9	44.4%
2026-08-12	Baltimore Orioles	Home	5	4	94	1.35	13	30.8%
2026-08-07	Milwaukee Brewers	Away	5	4	83	1.34	9	44.4%
2026-07-31	Seattle Mariners	Away	5	10	101	1.31	15	66.7%
2026-07-24	Athletics	Home	6	1	92	1.32	12	8.3%
2026-07-19	Chicago Cubs	Away	3	4	87	1.34	13	30.8%
2026-07-10	Los Angeles Angels	Home	6	3	102	1.22	10	30%