MLB pitcher strikeout

Zac Thornton

vs San Francisco Giants2026-09-05FanDuelLHP

Projection

4.4

Ensemble: 4.2

Market line

4.5

FanDuel

Model edge

No qualifying edge

50% (5/10)· 2O streak

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Recommendation

No recommendation

Confidence

88/100

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Pitcher K%

18.9%

Whiff%

17.1%

CSW%

22%

WHIP

1.06

Avg IP

5.5

Avg pitches

85.5

Last 5 avg Ks

4.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

18.3%

Team chase

31.3%

Recent chase

28.9%

Recent contact

78.2%

Recent K% (7d)

18.1%

Opp K% vs RHP

24.8%

Opp K% vs LHP

25.1%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

4.5

FanDuel

Model projection

4.4

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Ks

4.1

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.4

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

50% (5/10)· 2O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

4.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 4.5Model 4.4

Sep 5

vs SF

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 30

vs HOU

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 25

vs MIL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 18

vs SD

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 12

@ ATL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

16.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

15.1

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Outs

16.8

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

50% (5/10)· 2U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

16.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 16.5Model 15.1

Sep 5

vs SF

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Aug 30

vs HOU

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Aug 25

vs MIL

OVER

Outs

+1.5

Aug 18

vs SD

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Aug 12

@ ATL

OVER

Outs

+1.5

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Analytics

Career vs. San Francisco Giants

No prior starts found against San Francisco Giants.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	4.5	-148	+116	-0.1	+0.1	—
Pinnacle	4.5	-135	+102	-0.1	+0.1	—
DraftKings	4.5	-155	+121	-0.1	+0.1	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

67.5%

5+ Ks

45.9%Line

6+ Ks

25.8%

7+ Ks

13.4%

8+ Ks

5.9%

9+ Ks

2.3%

10+ Ks

0.8%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Cutter	32%	16.1%	12.5%	88.4
4-Seam Fastball	24.6%	15.4%	23.8%	92.1
Sweeper	16.4%	26.7%	18.4%	79.8
Sinker	10.4%	17.5%	13.3%	92.3
Slider	7.9%	21.6%	17.5%	84.6
Changeup	4.6%	17.6%	13.3%	84.4
Curveball	4%	22.2%	16.7%	75.9

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

38.9%

2-Strike Foul%

33.3%

2-Strike Contact%

83.9%

Expected Ks

20.4

K Luck

+0.6

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	23	43.5%	56.5%
1-2	27	48.1%	51.9%
2-2	22	31.8%	68.2%
3-2 (full)	12	16.7%	83.3%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Cutter	4-Seam Fastball	Sweeper	Sinker	Slider	Changeup	Curveball
Jonah CoxR	46%	36.7%	33.3% vs L: 0%	58.1% vs L: 54.5%	37.5%	27.3% vs L: 27.3%	66.7% vs L: 50%	27.3% vs L: 30%	11.1% vs L: 11.1%
Rafael DeversL	28.3%	24.2%	19.6% vs L: 22.2%	22.2% vs L: 25.5%	26.9% vs L: 22.4%	14.4% vs L: 10.7%	17.6% vs L: 16.3%	14.1% vs L: 18.8%	11.4% vs L: 5.9%
Bryce EldridgeL	27.1%	25.7%	27% vs L: 50%	16.3% vs L: 11.1%	21.6% vs L: 33.3%	24.5% vs L: 12%	30.6% vs L: 36.4%	20% vs L: 42.9%	11.9% vs L: 9.1%
Osleivis BasabeR	17.1%	17.5%	14.3% vs L: 0%	17.9% vs L: 9.1%	8.3%	0% vs L: 0%	18.8% vs L: 40%	21.7% vs L: 25%	12.5% vs L: 0%
Turner HillL	0%	13.6%	—	9.1%	0%	8.3% vs L: 0%	28.6%	11.1%	20%
Andrew KniznerR	7.7%	—	—	28.6% vs L: 25%	—	—	—	—	—
Shay WhitcombR	47.1%	31.1%	—	19.2% vs L: 42.9%	12.5%	60%	33.3%	50% vs L: 40%	28.6%
Grant McCrayL	37.5%	26.1%	25%	18.5% vs L: 15.4%	33.3%	33.3% vs L: 50%	23.8% vs L: 25%	0%	—
Christian KossR	22%	27.6%	12.5% vs L: 33.3%	26.9% vs L: 10.5%	23.5%	17.6% vs L: 14.3%	40%	26.3% vs L: 25%	20%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Cutter	4-Seam Fastball	Sweeper	Sinker	Slider	Changeup	Curveball
Jonah CoxR	28.6% vs L: 14.3%	44.4% vs L: 43.2%	30.8%	25% vs L: 30%	40% vs L: 55.6%	42.9% vs L: 42.9%	22.2% vs L: 22.2%
Rafael DeversL	26.4% vs L: 42.9%	35.1% vs L: 42.6%	33.7% vs L: 28.8%	11.8% vs L: 13.5%	30.1% vs L: 34.3%	20.4% vs L: 33.3%	13.3% vs L: 11.8%
Bryce EldridgeL	21.2% vs L: 25%	15% vs L: 9.8%	35.6% vs L: 40%	9.6% vs L: 9.4%	43% vs L: 48.7%	37.4% vs L: 22.2%	26.3% vs L: 28.6%
Osleivis BasabeR	23.5% vs L: 16.7%	12.7% vs L: 10.3%	33.3%	3.2% vs L: 10%	38.9% vs L: 60%	16% vs L: 14.3%	22.2% vs L: 0%
Turner HillL	—	9.1%	33.3%	0% vs L: 0%	18.2%	14.3%	20%
Andrew KniznerR	—	30% vs L: 25%	—	—	33.3%	—	—
Shay WhitcombR	20%	24.3% vs L: 36.4%	21.4%	15.8%	40%	55.6% vs L: 40%	50%
Grant McCrayL	25%	29% vs L: 12.5%	42.9%	12.5% vs L: 28.6%	57.9% vs L: 66.7%	25%	—
Christian KossR	16.7% vs L: 28.6%	25.8% vs L: 20%	26.1%	14.5% vs L: 7.1%	41.2%	41.2% vs L: 44%	0%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

No head-to-head history found for this lineup.

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Jonah Cox	34.7%	26%	25%	74.6%
Rafael Devers	28.8%	27.3%	21.7%	74.3%
Bryce Eldridge	22.8%	23.5%	25.5%	78.5%
Osleivis Basabe	36.7%	24.2%	12.9%	84.4%
Turner Hill	18.9%	15.9%	6.5%	93.4%
Andrew Knizner	37.5%	40%	19%	78.6%
Shay Whitcomb	35.6%	37.3%	28.9%	76.9%
Grant McCray	27.9%	32.3%	35.3%	64.7%
Christian Koss	38.5%	34%	27.1%	78.3%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-12	Boston Red Sox	5.5	5
2026-07-21	Milwaukee Brewers	3.9	2
2026-07-27	Atlanta Braves	3.9	5
2026-08-01	Miami Marlins	4.4	2
2026-08-07	Pittsburgh Pirates	4.3	3
2026-08-12	Atlanta Braves	3	2
2026-08-18	San Diego Padres	2.4	7
2026-08-25	Milwaukee Brewers	3.5	4
2026-08-30	Houston Astros	3.5	5
2026-09-05	San Francisco Giants	4.36	6

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 18.9%

!Whiff rate is 17.1%

!CSW rate is 22%

✓Opponent K% is 25.9%

!Average pitch count is 85.5

✓WHIP is 1.06

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	San Francisco Giants	Home	5	6	82	1.19	—	—
2026-08-30	Houston Astros	Home	5	5	97	1.16	11	45.5%
2026-08-25	Milwaukee Brewers	Home	6	4	89	1.15	14	28.6%
2026-08-18	San Diego Padres	Home	5	7	99	1.15	13	53.8%
2026-08-12	Atlanta Braves	Away	6	2	80	1.1	7	28.6%
2026-08-07	Pittsburgh Pirates	Away	5	3	63	1.07	9	33.3%
2026-08-01	Miami Marlins	Home	4.2	2	94	1.05	12	16.7%
2026-07-27	Atlanta Braves	Home	6.1	5	81	0.91	11	45.5%
2026-07-21	Milwaukee Brewers	Away	6	2	81	0.86	13	15.4%
2026-07-12	Boston Red Sox	Home	7	5	82	0.92	9	55.6%