MLB pitcher strikeout

Payton Tolle

@ Baltimore Orioles2026-09-06DraftKingsLHP

Projection

6.6

Ensemble: 6.6

Market line

6.5

DraftKings

Model edge

No qualifying edge

60% (6/10)· 1U streak

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Recommendation

No recommendation

Confidence

A+

100/100

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Pitcher K%

32.2%

Whiff%

29.3%

CSW%

30.3%

WHIP

1.1

Avg IP

5.9

Avg pitches

91.5

Last 5 avg Ks

7.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

26.4%

Team chase

31.2%

Recent chase

31.9%

Recent contact

79.3%

Recent K% (7d)

25.1%

Opp K% vs RHP

26.4%

Opp K% vs LHP

28.7%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

6.5

DraftKings

Model projection

6.6

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Ks

7.3

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.8

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

60% (6/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

6.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 6.5Model 6.6

Aug 31

vs SEA

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 25

@ MIA

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 19

vs ARI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 13

@ TOR

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Aug 7

vs ATH

OVER

Strikeouts

+7.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

17.5

FanDuel

Model projection

16.6

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Outs

17.0

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 3U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

17.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 17.5Model 16.6

Aug 31

vs SEA

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 25

@ MIA

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Aug 19

vs ARI

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 13

@ TOR

OVER

Outs

+6.5

Aug 7

vs ATH

OVER

Outs

+0.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Baltimore Orioles

No prior starts found against Baltimore Orioles.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	6.5	-153	+120	+0.1	-0.1	—
FanDuel	6.5	-130	+102	+0.1	-0.1	—
Pinnacle	6.5	-130	+102	+0.1	-0.1	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

93.2%

5+ Ks

84%

6+ Ks

68.5%

7+ Ks

49.9%Line

8+ Ks

33%

9+ Ks

18.9%

10+ Ks

9.2%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	42.9%	25.3%	24.6%	96.1
Cutter	22.3%	27.1%	19.5%	88.6
Sinker	22.1%	15.2%	20%	94.9
Curveball	9.5%	38.6%	30.8%	83.1
Changeup	3.1%	11.8%	14.3%	88.7

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

53.6%

2-Strike Foul%

29.9%

2-Strike Contact%

71.4%

Expected Ks

34.5

K Luck

+2.5

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	32	56.2%	40.6%
1-2	35	57.1%	40%
2-2	27	51.9%	48.1%
3-2 (full)	14	42.9%	57.1%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Cutter	Sinker	Curveball	Changeup
Jackson HollidayL	27.7%	21.5%	23% vs L: 37.5%	8.3% vs L: 0%	28.6% vs L: 27.8%	32.3% vs L: 20%	18.9% vs L: 28.6%
Pete AlonsoR	24.2%	23.9%	15.8% vs L: 12%	26.5% vs L: 44.4%	17.2% vs L: 22.6%	18.8% vs L: 18.2%	15.9% vs L: 17%
Gunnar HendersonL	21.1%	22%	17.3% vs L: 18.5%	21.1% vs L: 11.1%	20% vs L: 19.4%	9.8% vs L: 6.7%	17.5% vs L: 14.3%
Coby MayoR	26.6%	34.7%	21.4% vs L: 22.7%	35.7% vs L: 33.3%	10.2% vs L: 10%	19.1% vs L: 13.8%	20% vs L: 31%
Christian Encarnacion-StrandR	28.8%	23.3%	22.4% vs L: 37.5%	10% vs L: 0%	17.6% vs L: 0%	0%	18.8% vs L: 20%
Dylan BeaversL	22%	25.8%	19% vs L: 12%	32%	14.7% vs L: 33.3%	25.8%	12.3%
Leody TaverasS	31.7%	22.6%	16.2% vs L: 19.7%	15.4% vs L: 14.3%	21.3% vs L: 26.3%	27.7% vs L: 43.8%	19.8% vs L: 17.8%
Colton CowserL	42.3%	27.8%	17.5% vs L: 11.1%	0%	22% vs L: 33.3%	26.8% vs L: 0%	16.9% vs L: 33.3%
Carlos NarváezR	32.3%	33.7%	24% vs L: 18.8%	14.8% vs L: 15.4%	15% vs L: 11.1%	5.3% vs L: 0%	17.2% vs L: 7.1%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Cutter	Sinker	Curveball	Changeup
Jackson HollidayL	20% vs L: 26.7%	18.8% vs L: 0%	14.1% vs L: 9.4%	46.2% vs L: 42.9%	25.7% vs L: 25%
Pete AlonsoR	21.7% vs L: 21.1%	25% vs L: 25%	13.3% vs L: 14.5%	36.7% vs L: 50%	27.4% vs L: 23.5%
Gunnar HendersonL	14.9% vs L: 12.3%	32.5% vs L: 35%	12.4% vs L: 9.7%	23.3% vs L: 27.8%	20.7% vs L: 19.2%
Coby MayoR	15.3% vs L: 9.5%	35.9% vs L: 34.8%	13.1% vs L: 22.2%	35.6% vs L: 25.9%	35.9% vs L: 41.8%
Christian Encarnacion-StrandR	19.8% vs L: 17.8%	16% vs L: 23.1%	18.4% vs L: 14.3%	16.7%	27.1% vs L: 31.2%
Dylan BeaversL	14% vs L: 15.2%	28.3%	11.7% vs L: 11.8%	26.5%	33.3%
Leody TaverasS	16.7% vs L: 17.5%	18.2% vs L: 17.2%	14.6% vs L: 12.8%	32.8% vs L: 34.8%	24.5% vs L: 23.2%
Colton CowserL	17.8% vs L: 29.6%	18.9%	19.4% vs L: 30%	39% vs L: 0%	37.3% vs L: 80%
Carlos NarváezR	33% vs L: 27.1%	41.7% vs L: 38.9%	7.6% vs L: 18.2%	25% vs L: 33.3%	33.3% vs L: 31.8%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Pete Alonso	6	2	33.3%	.200
Gunnar Henderson	6	0	0%	.500
Coby Mayo	6	4	66.7%	.167
Jackson Holliday	3	1	33.3%	.333
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	3	1	33.3%	.667
Leody Taveras	3	1	33.3%	.500

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Jackson Holliday	26.9%	33.3%	29.2%	80%
Pete Alonso	28.3%	35.2%	26.9%	71.3%
Gunnar Henderson	26.5%	28.4%	16.7%	82.1%
Coby Mayo	34.3%	32.1%	22.2%	78.3%
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	47.3%	43.3%	24.4%	81.1%
Dylan Beavers	23.7%	27.6%	16.3%	81.8%
Leody Taveras	33.4%	33.3%	39%	79.7%
Colton Cowser	29.2%	26.1%	26.5%	79.4%
Carlos Narváez	30.8%	27.5%	23.8%	80%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-07	Chicago White Sox	4.7	6
2026-07-12	New York Mets	5.1	7
2026-07-20	Baltimore Orioles	7.2	9
2026-07-27	Athletics	5	7
2026-08-01	Los Angeles Dodgers	5.4	7
2026-08-07	Athletics	6.3	14
2026-08-13	Toronto Blue Jays	9.9	4
2026-08-19	Arizona Diamondbacks	8.2	6
2026-08-25	Miami Marlins	8.3	7
2026-08-31	Seattle Mariners	8.8	6
2026-09-06	Baltimore Orioles	6.6	—

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

✓Pitcher K% is 32.2%

✓Whiff rate is 29.3%

✓CSW rate is 30.3%

✓Opponent K% is 26%

✓Average pitch count is 91.5

✓WHIP is 1.1

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-08-31	Seattle Mariners	Home	5.2	6	96	1.1	14	42.9%
2026-08-25	Miami Marlins	Away	5.1	7	97	1.09	12	58.3%
2026-08-19	Arizona Diamondbacks	Home	5	6	98	1.08	15	40%
2026-08-13	Toronto Blue Jays	Away	8	4	91	1.06	11	36.4%
2026-08-07	Athletics	Home	6	14	84	1.1	17	82.4%
2026-08-01	Los Angeles Dodgers	Away	6	7	88	1.15	12	58.3%
2026-07-27	Athletics	Away	5.1	7	90	1.11	13	53.8%
2026-07-20	Baltimore Orioles	Home	5.2	9	88	1.1	14	64.3%
2026-07-12	New York Mets	Away	3.2	7	66	1.07	12	58.3%
2026-07-07	Chicago White Sox	Away	6	6	91	1.07	13	46.2%