Payton Tolle
Kyle BradishModel pick
Red Sox
Win probability
56.8%
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Team Stats
Red Sox
Record
78-65
Win%
.545
Games Back
7.5
Run Diff
+84
Last 10
5-5
Streak
W3
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
21st of 30
Orioles
Record
69-74
Win%
.483
Games Back
16.5
Run Diff
-27
Last 10
4-6
Streak
L5
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
20th of 30
Head-to-head · live from MLB Stats API
Team Stat Sheet
Red SoxOrioles| Lineup Production | ||
| 4.5 | R/GRuns scored per game | 4.5 |
| 0.323 | OBPOn-base percentage | 0.316 |
| 0.729 | OPSOn-base + slugging | 0.710 |
| 0.249 | AVGBatting average | 0.234 |
| 148 | HRHome runs | 172 |
| 639 | RunsRuns scored | 640 |
| 1157 | KBatting strikeouts | 1315 |
| 459 | BBWalks drawn | 531 |
| Pitching Staff | ||
| 3.9 | RA/GRuns allowed per game | 4.7 |
| 3.62 | ERAEarned run average | 4.16 |
| 1.240 | WHIPWalks + hits per IP | 1.340 |
| 8.6 | K/9Strikeouts per 9 IP | 8.1 |
| 2.9 | BB/9Walks per 9 IP | 3.3 |
| 8.2 | H/9Hits per 9 IP | 8.7 |
2026 season-to-date team stats, live from MLB Stats API.
Analytics
Model Signals
Red SoxOrioles| 56.8% | Win ProbabilityLean · Signals agree | 43.2% |
Team strengthPythagorean win profile -0.091
| ||
Starting pitcherLast-five-start FIP -1.93
| ||
BullpenRolling 7-day WHIP +0.202
| ||
Hitting formAverage OPS edge · L3/L7/L15/season -0.079
| ||
1st-inning run prediction based on today's real lineups and starters
YRFI / NRFI
Model leans
NRFI 60.8%
39.2% YRFI · 60.8% NRFI
Why
Red Sox: NRFI in 3 of last 5
Orioles: NRFI in 5 straight - NRFI in 5 of last 5
Payton Tolle: hasn't allowed a 1st-inning run in 3 straight starts
Kyle Bradish: no 1st-inning run in 3 of last 5 starts
A pick only becomes a play once the model is confident enough (65%+ for YRFI, 35%- for NRFI). No sportsbook line exists for this market yet, so this reflects the model's own confidence rather than an edge against posted odds.