MLB pitcher strikeout

Parker Messick

vs Detroit Tigers2026-09-05DraftKingsLHP

Projection

6.3

Ensemble: 5.9

Market line

6.5

DraftKings

Model edge

No qualifying edge

30% (3/10)· 1O streak

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Recommendation

No recommendation

Confidence

A+

98/100

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Pitcher K%

27.3%

Whiff%

26.6%

CSW%

27%

WHIP

1.03

Avg IP

6.1

Avg pitches

96.1

Last 5 avg Ks

7.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

24.4%

Team chase

29.5%

Recent chase

33.6%

Recent contact

73.5%

Recent K% (7d)

23.8%

Opp K% vs RHP

23.3%

Opp K% vs LHP

21.6%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

6.5

DraftKings

Model projection

6.3

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Ks

6.4

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

30% (3/10)· 1O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

6.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 6.5Model 6.3

Sep 5

vs DET

OVER

Strikeouts

+5.5

Aug 30

vs KC

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 24

@ LAA

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Aug 19

vs SF

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Aug 13

@ DET

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

18.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

17.3

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Outs

18.3

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.2

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 3U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

18.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 18.5Model 17.3

Sep 5

vs DET

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 30

vs KC

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 24

@ LAA

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 19

vs SF

OVER

Outs

+1.5

Aug 13

@ DET

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Detroit Tigers

No prior starts found against Detroit Tigers.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	6.5	+103	-131	-0.2	+0.2	—
FanDuel	6.5	+100	-128	-0.2	+0.2	—
Pinnacle	6.5	-108	-123	-0.2	+0.2	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

91.8%

5+ Ks

81.1%

6+ Ks

65.1%

7+ Ks

47.1%Line

8+ Ks

29.1%

9+ Ks

16.2%

10+ Ks

7.8%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	47.2%	24%	25.2%	94.7
Changeup	22.6%	25.6%	15.7%	86.4
Sinker	15.9%	7%	16.1%	93.3
Curveball	7.3%	12%	7.7%	79.6
Slider	4%	30%	15%	87.3
Cutter	2.9%	50%	20%	90.1

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

45.2%

2-Strike Foul%

18.3%

2-Strike Contact%

71.7%

Expected Ks

32.8

K Luck

+0.2

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	31	45.2%	54.8%
1-2	48	45.8%	52.1%
2-2	42	40.5%	57.1%
3-2 (full)	17	11.8%	82.4%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Sinker	Curveball	Slider	Cutter
Gleyber TorresR	19.3%	18.4%	14% vs L: 9.3%	10.2% vs L: 3.8%	8.7% vs L: 22.2%	16.2% vs L: 15.8%	15.4% vs L: 46.2%	28.6% vs L: 18.2%
Hao-Yu LeeR	22.8%	23.5%	24.8% vs L: 25.5%	13.5% vs L: 14.8%	23.5% vs L: 18.2%	0% vs L: 0%	23.4% vs L: 27.8%	31.6% vs L: 50%
Riley GreeneL	28.1%	26.8%	18.1% vs L: 20.5%	24.2% vs L: 12.5%	18.5% vs L: 14%	21.2% vs L: 20%	19.3% vs L: 19.6%	23.3% vs L: 25%
Dillon DinglerR	26.4%	20.4%	17.5% vs L: 15.8%	19.6% vs L: 17.6%	12.9% vs L: 4.5%	35.3% vs L: 50%	21.2% vs L: 29.2%	17.5% vs L: 33.3%
Ben MalgeriR	27%	25%	17.8% vs L: 20.7%	20% vs L: 22.7%	8.3% vs L: 9.1%	8.3% vs L: 10%	21.4% vs L: 37.5%	12.5% vs L: 0%
Spencer TorkelsonR	28.5%	32.5%	19.2% vs L: 11.9%	29.4% vs L: 27.6%	16.9% vs L: 18.2%	23.5% vs L: 20%	25% vs L: 30%	28.6% vs L: 28.6%
John PeckR	37.5%	0%	0%	75% vs L: 75%	—	—	—	—
Zach McKinstryL	16.5%	15.9%	12% vs L: 23.1%	18.5% vs L: 25%	7.5% vs L: 6.7%	13.5%	15.6% vs L: 12.5%	15% vs L: 0%
Javier BáezR	14%	20.3%	14.3% vs L: 14.3%	13.6% vs L: 27.3%	41.7% vs L: 100%	14.3% vs L: 25%	27.6% vs L: 0%	11.1%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Sinker	Curveball	Slider	Cutter
Gleyber TorresR	19.9% vs L: 14.8%	26.8% vs L: 25%	7.4% vs L: 5.6%	32% vs L: 33.3%	25.7% vs L: 46.7%	30.6% vs L: 10%
Hao-Yu LeeR	23.6% vs L: 20.3%	28.8% vs L: 29.4%	19.2% vs L: 20%	8% vs L: 6.2%	43.8% vs L: 35.7%	25.5% vs L: 18.2%
Riley GreeneL	20.2% vs L: 25.2%	41.7% vs L: 35.7%	9.5% vs L: 6.9%	33.3% vs L: 42.9%	36.8% vs L: 40.9%	30.3% vs L: 40%
Dillon DinglerR	14.7% vs L: 9.9%	33.3% vs L: 31.5%	10.1% vs L: 10%	40% vs L: 50%	33% vs L: 40.6%	13.2% vs L: 17.9%
Ben MalgeriR	18.2% vs L: 20.7%	53.1% vs L: 55.2%	0% vs L: 0%	28.6% vs L: 28.6%	26.7% vs L: 25%	18.2% vs L: 15.4%
Spencer TorkelsonR	20.8% vs L: 15.7%	42.6% vs L: 43.8%	11.7% vs L: 5.1%	41.5% vs L: 27.3%	35.9% vs L: 40.6%	30.9% vs L: 15.8%
John PeckR	11.1%	40% vs L: 40%	—	—	—	—
Zach McKinstryL	7.7% vs L: 12.2%	24.4% vs L: 25%	7% vs L: 4.4%	16.3%	20.3% vs L: 12.5%	12.5% vs L: 0%
Javier BáezR	21.2% vs L: 18.2%	28.3% vs L: 31.4%	11.8% vs L: 25%	45.5% vs L: 40%	30.5% vs L: 15.4%	13.6%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Spencer Torkelson	8	4	50%	.286
Dillon Dingler	7	1	14.3%	.143
Gleyber Torres	6	1	16.7%	.200
Riley Greene	5	2	40%	.500
Hao-Yu Lee	4	1	25%	.250
Javier Báez	4	0	0%	.500
Ben Malgeri	2	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Gleyber Torres	21.7%	23.5%	20.9%	84.7%
Hao-Yu Lee	31.6%	30.3%	25.5%	73.4%
Riley Greene	26.7%	43.8%	N/A	55.2%
Dillon Dingler	33.4%	28.6%	24.3%	75.7%
Ben Malgeri	28.1%	28.6%	42.3%	76%
Spencer Torkelson	22.3%	19.7%	35.1%	69%
John Peck	N/A	44.4%	N/A	78.6%
Zach McKinstry	28.9%	36.5%	23.3%	80%
Javier Báez	43.5%	47.4%	20%	68.6%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-10	Miami Marlins	5.5	1
2026-07-21	Minnesota Twins	6	6
2026-07-26	Tampa Bay Rays	4.6	6
2026-08-01	Arizona Diamondbacks	4.7	6
2026-08-07	Chicago White Sox	5.1	8
2026-08-13	Detroit Tigers	6.4	6
2026-08-19	San Francisco Giants	6.1	10
2026-08-24	Los Angeles Angels	7.8	4
2026-08-30	Kansas City Royals	7.3	5
2026-09-05	Detroit Tigers	6.28	12

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 27.3%

!Whiff rate is 26.6%

!CSW rate is 27%

✓Opponent K% is 23.6%

✓Average pitch count is 96.1

✓WHIP is 1.03

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	Detroit Tigers	Home	6	12	103	1.04	—	—
2026-08-30	Kansas City Royals	Home	6	5	105	1.02	12	41.7%
2026-08-24	Los Angeles Angels	Away	6	4	94	1.01	14	28.6%
2026-08-19	San Francisco Giants	Home	6.2	10	98	1.03	17	58.8%
2026-08-13	Detroit Tigers	Away	5.2	6	102	1.03	16	37.5%
2026-08-07	Chicago White Sox	Away	7	8	97	1.04	14	57.1%
2026-08-01	Arizona Diamondbacks	Home	4.1	6	91	1.06	14	42.9%
2026-07-26	Tampa Bay Rays	Away	7.2	6	94	1.04	11	54.5%
2026-07-21	Minnesota Twins	Home	5.2	6	88	1.05	14	42.9%
2026-07-10	Miami Marlins	Away	6	1	91	1.07	11	9.1%