MLB pitcher strikeout

Ryan Johnson

@ Pittsburgh Pirates2026-09-04FanDuelRHP

Projection

4.0

Ensemble: 4.1

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+0.5

Over 3.5

50% (5/10)· 1O streak

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Recommendation

Over 3.5

FanDuel

Confidence

B+

70/100

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Pitcher K%

14.3%

Whiff%

18.3%

CSW%

25.8%

WHIP

1.51

Avg IP

4.9

Avg pitches

83.9

Last 5 avg Ks

3.6

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

17.1%

Team chase

33.2%

Recent chase

32.2%

Recent contact

75.3%

Recent K% (7d)

17.5%

Opp K% vs RHP

22.5%

Opp K% vs LHP

25.6%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model projection

4.0

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.2

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

50% (5/10)· 1O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 4.0

Sep 4

@ PIT

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 29

vs PHI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 22

@ TEX

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 16

vs KC

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 11

vs TEX

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

14.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

13.9

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Outs

14.5

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.0

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

50% (5/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

14.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 14.5Model 13.9

Sep 4

@ PIT

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Aug 29

vs PHI

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 22

@ TEX

OVER

Outs

+6.5

Aug 16

vs KC

OVER

Outs

+1.5

Aug 11

vs TEX

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

No prior starts found against Pittsburgh Pirates.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	3.5	-130	+102	+0.5	-0.5	Best Over
Pinnacle	3.5	-127	-104	+0.5	-0.5	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

57.9%Line

5+ Ks

36.1%

6+ Ks

18.4%

7+ Ks

7.8%

8+ Ks

2.9%

9+ Ks

0.8%

10+ Ks

0.2%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Cutter	36.9%	20.7%	21.2%	89.4
Splitter	21.9%	27.2%	14.3%	85
Sinker	20.6%	2.1%	0%	92.3
Sweeper	20.3%	34.3%	14.5%	80.6

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

27.8%

2-Strike Foul%

21.1%

2-Strike Contact%

83.6%

Expected Ks

17.5

K Luck

-2.5

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	16	56.2%	37.5%
1-2	25	28%	68%
2-2	23	21.7%	78.3%
3-2 (full)	26	7.7%	92.3%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Cutter	Splitter	Sinker	Sweeper
Spencer HorwitzL	19.2%	14.7%	16.7% vs R: 18.5%	28.6% vs R: 16.7%	10.4% vs R: 15.2%	13.7% vs R: 12.1%
Brandon LoweL	37.5%	24.9%	20% vs R: 20%	40% vs R: 40%	19.2% vs R: 4.8%	24.1% vs R: 18.4%
Bryan ReynoldsS	22.6%	23.7%	16.7% vs R: 21.6%	18.8% vs R: 30%	17.1% vs R: 20%	23.9% vs R: 20%
Nick GonzalesR	16.5%	16.3%	13.3% vs R: 6.7%	22.7% vs R: 12.5%	25% vs R: 23.7%	12.7% vs R: 12.5%
Oneil CruzL	40.6%	31.6%	26.7% vs R: 40%	33.3% vs R: 36.8%	35.4% vs R: 22.2%	21.7% vs R: 18.2%
Konnor GriffinR	—	—	—	—	—	—
Jake MangumS	20.5%	19.4%	22.7% vs R: 22.2%	11.8% vs R: 12.5%	18.4% vs R: 16.7%	14.6% vs R: 14.7%
Jacob GonzalezL	19.4%	19.1%	27.8% vs R: 29.4%	10% vs R: 10%	33.3% vs R: 30.8%	7.1% vs R: 12.5%
Henry DavisR	25.6%	19.8%	18.2% vs R: 20%	0% vs R: 0%	16.7% vs R: 13%	11.4% vs R: 13.2%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Cutter	Splitter	Sinker	Sweeper
Spencer HorwitzL	17.2% vs R: 16.1%	43.8% vs R: 40%	8.2% vs R: 6%	13.6% vs R: 17.5%
Brandon LoweL	28.9% vs R: 28.7%	47.6% vs R: 47.6%	16.4% vs R: 17.2%	39.5% vs R: 32.1%
Bryan ReynoldsS	26.8% vs R: 30.9%	33.3% vs R: 41.7%	15.2% vs R: 14.6%	33.8% vs R: 35%
Nick GonzalesR	18.4% vs R: 21.1%	45.8% vs R: 33.3%	15.7% vs R: 16.4%	18.8% vs R: 18.5%
Oneil CruzL	22.4% vs R: 21.1%	51.6% vs R: 55.2%	18.6% vs R: 15.2%	34.9% vs R: 38.5%
Konnor GriffinR	—	—	—	—
Jake MangumS	12.5% vs R: 14.1%	28.1% vs R: 30%	13.3% vs R: 12.2%	18.9% vs R: 16.7%
Jacob GonzalezL	12.8% vs R: 13.5%	29% vs R: 29%	10.9% vs R: 13.5%	5.6% vs R: 11.1%
Henry DavisR	14.3% vs R: 16.7%	11.1% vs R: 14.3%	9.3% vs R: 11.2%	18.4% vs R: 20.9%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K%	AVG
Brandon Lowe	1	0%	.000
Bryan Reynolds	1	0%	.000
Oneil Cruz	1	0%	1.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Spencer Horwitz	24%	29.3%	25%	79.2%
Brandon Lowe	34.4%	41.9%	28.6%	65.5%
Bryan Reynolds	26.7%	21.5%	15.7%	77.1%
Nick Gonzales	31.5%	26.4%	13%	85.5%
Oneil Cruz	22.1%	23.9%	35.4%	66.7%
Konnor Griffin	45.5%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jake Mangum	43.1%	41%	28.6%	81.6%
Jacob Gonzalez	37.9%	34.5%	33.3%	78%
Henry Davis	33.3%	39.3%	N/A	69%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-11	Minnesota Twins	1.8	1
2026-07-19	Detroit Tigers	1.8	5
2026-07-25	San Francisco Giants	4.1	4
2026-07-31	Milwaukee Brewers	4.1	3
2026-08-06	Baltimore Orioles	4.4	1
2026-08-11	Texas Rangers	2.4	5
2026-08-16	Kansas City Royals	2.3	4
2026-08-22	Texas Rangers	2.1	3
2026-08-29	Philadelphia Phillies	1.1	2
2026-09-04	Pittsburgh Pirates	3.99	6

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 14.3%

!Whiff rate is 18.3%

!CSW rate is 25.8%

!Opponent K% is 22.9%

!Average pitch count is 83.9

!WHIP is 1.51

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-04	Pittsburgh Pirates	Away	4.1	4	68	1.41	—	—
2026-08-29	Philadelphia Phillies	Home	5	2	88	1.42	8	25%
2026-08-22	Texas Rangers	Away	7	3	88	1.43	14	21.4%
2026-08-16	Kansas City Royals	Home	5.1	4	85	1.54	11	36.4%
2026-08-11	Texas Rangers	Home	4.1	5	84	1.56	14	35.7%
2026-08-06	Baltimore Orioles	Away	4.2	1	78	1.6	7	14.3%
2026-07-31	Milwaukee Brewers	Home	4.1	3	88	1.59	9	33.3%
2026-07-25	San Francisco Giants	Away	3.1	4	69	1.54	7	57.1%
2026-07-19	Detroit Tigers	Home	5	5	91	1.43	14	35.7%
2026-07-11	Minnesota Twins	Away	5	1	75	1.5	9	11.1%