MLB pitcher strikeout

Gage Jump

@ Seattle Mariners2026-09-06FanDuelLHP

Projection

6.0

Ensemble: 6.0

Market line

5.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+0.5

Over 5.5

50% (5/10)· 1U streak

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Recommendation

Over 5.5

FanDuel

Confidence

B+

70/100

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Pitcher K%

21.8%

Whiff%

25.4%

CSW%

27.8%

WHIP

1.46

Avg IP

Avg pitches

91.6

Last 5 avg Ks

5.2

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

25.4%

Team chase

30.6%

Recent chase

29.6%

Recent contact

76.8%

Recent K% (7d)

17.7%

Opp K% vs RHP

21%

Opp K% vs LHP

22.6%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

5.5

FanDuel

Model projection

6.0

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Ks

5.8

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

50% (5/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

5.5

0.527

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Under

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Line 5.5Model 6.0

Aug 31

@ TEX

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Aug 25

vs MIN

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Aug 20

@ KC

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Aug 14

vs TEX

UNDER

Strikeouts

-4.5

Aug 8

@ BOS

OVER

Strikeouts

+5.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

16.5

DraftKings

Model projection

15.8

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Outs

14.9

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

16.5

0.527

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Under

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Line 16.5Model 15.8

Aug 31

@ TEX

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

Aug 25

vs MIN

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Aug 20

@ KC

UNDER

Outs

-4.5

Aug 14

vs TEX

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 8

@ BOS

OVER

Outs

+1.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Seattle Mariners

No prior starts found against Seattle Mariners.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	5.5	-130	+102	+0.5	-0.5	Best Over
Pinnacle	5.5	-130	+102	+0.5	-0.5	—
DraftKings	5.5	-120	-107	+0.5	-0.5	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

83.7%

5+ Ks

67.5%

6+ Ks

48.4%Line

7+ Ks

30.6%

8+ Ks

16.2%

9+ Ks

10+ Ks

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	45.9%	20.9%	21.5%	96.2
Slider	22.7%	27.7%	17.8%	87
Curveball	11%	24.3%	21.3%	82.3
Changeup	9%	26.8%	11.1%	87.4
Sinker	6%	21.4%	22.2%	95.1
Sweeper	5.3%	40%	21.9%	83.6

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

40.6%

2-Strike Foul%

26.2%

2-Strike Contact%

76.7%

Expected Ks

29.6

K Luck

-3.6

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	27	37%	63%
1-2	30	53.3%	46.7%
2-2	30	36.7%	63.3%
3-2 (full)	20	15%	85%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Curveball	Changeup	Sinker	Sweeper
Randy ArozarenaR	18.1%	22.7%	21.7% vs L: 24.1%	22.2% vs L: 28.6%	21.3% vs L: 20%	9.2% vs L: 11.4%	13.2% vs L: 11.1%	14.6% vs L: 5.3%
Dominic CanzoneL	22%	21.4%	16.8% vs L: 13.3%	22.5% vs L: 15.6%	17.6% vs L: 16.7%	18.9% vs L: 16.7%	25.9% vs L: 28%	23.3% vs L: 7.1%
Julio RodríguezR	24.7%	21.6%	17.1% vs L: 17.2%	15.4% vs L: 12.5%	25.5% vs L: 25%	12% vs L: 12.2%	21.8% vs L: 33.3%	23.1% vs L: 23.1%
Cal RaleighS	35.5%	28.8%	21.1% vs L: 25%	22.6% vs L: 18.6%	20% vs L: 26.3%	16.3% vs L: 17.1%	18.8% vs L: 25%	21.7% vs L: 35.3%
Josh NaylorL	15.9%	11.4%	8.7% vs L: 10.5%	20.7% vs L: 22.9%	23.3% vs L: 27.3%	13.6% vs L: 9.1%	10.2% vs L: 12%	20.9% vs L: 25%
Cole YoungL	19.9%	15.8%	11.9% vs L: 12.3%	19% vs L: 30.2%	9.1% vs L: 0%	17.5% vs L: 12.5%	13.2% vs L: 3%	25.7% vs L: 30.6%
Taylor WardR	20.8%	21.6%	18% vs L: 16.9%	15.1% vs L: 23.3%	22.9% vs L: 35%	7.2% vs L: 7.3%	22.3% vs L: 6.7%	15% vs L: 23.5%
J.P. CrawfordL	17.5%	21.6%	13.1% vs L: 15.1%	20.7% vs L: 7.1%	13.9% vs L: 0%	15%	18.6% vs L: 17.4%	14.3% vs L: 11.8%
Brock RoddenS	29.4%	29.3%	33.3% vs L: 25%	60% vs L: 50%	—	33.3%	0% vs L: 0%	60%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Curveball	Changeup	Sinker	Sweeper
Randy ArozarenaR	27.3% vs L: 22.9%	29.7% vs L: 25%	24.1% vs L: 18.2%	20% vs L: 17.5%	18.2% vs L: 4.3%	22% vs L: 14.3%
Dominic CanzoneL	15.7% vs L: 17.5%	36.9% vs L: 31.2%	36% vs L: 60%	26.8% vs L: 28.6%	15.6% vs L: 11.1%	32.4% vs L: 30.8%
Julio RodríguezR	23.9% vs L: 23.1%	31.9% vs L: 29.3%	50% vs L: 48.4%	30.7% vs L: 31.5%	8.5% vs L: 17.4%	33.7% vs L: 42.9%
Cal RaleighS	26.8% vs L: 31.2%	35.8% vs L: 38.9%	29.8% vs L: 34.6%	37.2% vs L: 38.3%	16.4% vs L: 21.1%	30.4% vs L: 30.8%
Josh NaylorL	5.8% vs L: 10.3%	29% vs L: 30%	32.3% vs L: 50%	19.8% vs L: 16.7%	10.1% vs L: 13.3%	30% vs L: 34.2%
Cole YoungL	15.4% vs L: 13.5%	28.8% vs L: 41.8%	8.3% vs L: 0%	20.7% vs L: 8.3%	7.7% vs L: 6.1%	29.4% vs L: 30.6%
Taylor WardR	17.7% vs L: 11.9%	23.3% vs L: 25.6%	36.1% vs L: 46.7%	15.1% vs L: 12%	6.9% vs L: 5.9%	20.8% vs L: 33.3%
J.P. CrawfordL	16.9% vs L: 24.1%	22.4% vs L: 15.9%	20.7% vs L: 0%	12.2%	3.8% vs L: 2.2%	19.4% vs L: 8.3%
Brock RoddenS	33.3% vs L: 25%	71.4% vs L: 60%	—	55%	16.7% vs L: 0%	75%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Randy Arozarena	3	1	33.3%	.333
Julio Rodríguez	3	0	0%	.333
Josh Naylor	3	0	0%	.333
Cole Young	3	1	33.3%	.000
J.P. Crawford	3	1	33.3%	.500

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Randy Arozarena	28.5%	20.9%	24.1%	73.3%
Dominic Canzone	36.1%	36.8%	23.5%	77.2%
Julio Rodríguez	38.8%	34%	29.6%	71.9%
Cal Raleigh	34.1%	31.1%	30.4%	66.3%
Josh Naylor	39.8%	45.1%	14.9%	86.3%
Cole Young	30.5%	29%	19.1%	79.1%
Taylor Ward	17.9%	24.3%	29.7%	78.7%
J.P. Crawford	18.1%	12.8%	20.9%	87.9%
Brock Rodden	32%	32.3%	23.3%	70.6%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-11	Chicago White Sox	5.6	7
2026-07-17	Washington Nationals	5.7	8
2026-07-22	Arizona Diamondbacks	6.5	5
2026-07-28	Boston Red Sox	5.8	7
2026-08-02	Detroit Tigers	6.1	5
2026-08-08	Boston Red Sox	5.1	11
2026-08-14	Texas Rangers	6.9	1
2026-08-20	Kansas City Royals	5.1	3
2026-08-25	Minnesota Twins	5.4	9
2026-08-31	Texas Rangers	6.3	2
2026-09-06	Seattle Mariners	5.99	—

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 21.8%

!Whiff rate is 25.4%

!CSW rate is 27.8%

!Opponent K% is 20.9%

✓Average pitch count is 91.6

!WHIP is 1.46

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-08-31	Texas Rangers	Away	4.1	2	91	1.49	10	20%
2026-08-25	Minnesota Twins	Home	6.1	9	94	1.46	14	64.3%
2026-08-20	Kansas City Royals	Away	4	3	86	1.51	11	27.3%
2026-08-14	Texas Rangers	Home	5.1	1	101	1.45	12	8.3%
2026-08-08	Boston Red Sox	Away	6	11	100	1.46	17	64.7%
2026-08-02	Detroit Tigers	Home	3.2	5	88	1.47	10	50%
2026-07-28	Boston Red Sox	Home	6	7	90	1.4	13	53.8%
2026-07-22	Arizona Diamondbacks	Away	4.2	5	83	1.42	7	71.4%
2026-07-17	Washington Nationals	Home	3.2	8	87	1.32	14	57.1%
2026-07-11	Chicago White Sox	Away	5.2	7	86	1.29	13	53.8%