MLB pitcher strikeout

Rhett Lowder

vs Milwaukee Brewers2026-09-04DraftKingsRHP

Projection

4.4

Ensemble: 3.9

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.9

Over 3.5

50% (5/10)· 1U streak

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Recommendation

Over 3.5

DraftKings

Confidence

B+

75/100

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Pitcher K%

14.6%

Whiff%

12.3%

CSW%

23.7%

WHIP

1.51

Avg IP

5.3

Avg pitches

86.2

Last 5 avg Ks

3.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

20%

Platoon K%

18.5%

Team chase

27.6%

Recent chase

27.4%

Recent contact

80.7%

Recent K% (7d)

26.2%

Opp K% vs RHP

22.1%

Opp K% vs LHP

21.8%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model projection

4.4

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.2

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

50% (5/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 4.4

Sep 4

vs MIL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 28

@ CHC

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 22

@ ARI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Aug 17

vs STL

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 12

@ CWS

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

15.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

16.5

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Outs

14.5

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.0

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

50% (5/10)· 2U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

15.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 15.5Model 16.5

Sep 4

vs MIL

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

Aug 28

@ CHC

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 22

@ ARI

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Aug 17

vs STL

OVER

Outs

+4.5

Aug 12

@ CWS

OVER

Outs

+0.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Milwaukee Brewers

No prior starts found against Milwaukee Brewers.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	3.5	-154	+120	+0.9	-0.9	Best Over
FanDuel	3.5	-150	+118	+0.9	-0.9	—
Pinnacle	3.5	-150	+118	+0.9	-0.9	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

69.9%Line

5+ Ks

49.4%

6+ Ks

28.7%

7+ Ks

15%

8+ Ks

6.4%

9+ Ks

2.4%

10+ Ks

0.8%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sinker	28.8%	6%	13.1%	93.3
Slider	27.8%	30.9%	21.7%	85.1
Changeup	20.2%	19.3%	10.6%	86.6
4-Seam Fastball	19%	11.8%	19.3%	93.9
Curveball	4%	5.9%	8.3%	80.6

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

30%

2-Strike Foul%

25.7%

2-Strike Contact%

86.7%

Expected Ks

22.6

K Luck

-4.6

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	27	25.9%	74.1%
1-2	33	30.3%	69.7%
2-2	33	33.3%	66.7%
3-2 (full)	20	30%	70%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sinker	Slider	Changeup	4-Seam Fastball	Curveball
Sal FrelickL	11.9%	9.8%	8.5% vs R: 6.5%	17.5% vs R: 18.2%	5% vs R: 0%	11.3% vs R: 10.9%	0% vs R: 0%
Jake BauersL	22.7%	27%	17.9% vs R: 17.6%	22.4% vs R: 29.8%	16% vs R: 14.3%	18.3% vs R: 20.8%	25% vs R: 32.6%
Jackson ChourioR	22.9%	24%	21.8% vs R: 18.5%	17.5% vs R: 19.1%	15.8% vs R: 17.4%	19.6% vs R: 20.2%	22.6% vs R: 28.6%
Christian YelichL	25.7%	25.6%	22.7% vs R: 22.2%	29.5% vs R: 32.8%	15.9% vs R: 17.9%	14% vs R: 14.7%	22.2% vs R: 21.9%
William ContrerasR	15.6%	13.4%	7.5% vs R: 7.7%	19.7% vs R: 22%	11.1% vs R: 16.7%	10.3% vs R: 10.1%	33.3% vs R: 12.5%
Brice TurangL	25.7%	24.9%	21.9% vs R: 24%	18.9% vs R: 17.5%	12.6% vs R: 11.3%	20.4% vs R: 22.6%	22.6% vs R: 23.9%
Garrett MitchellL	28.3%	32.1%	27.7% vs R: 30.4%	27.7% vs R: 26.2%	25.4% vs R: 28.6%	28.7% vs R: 28.1%	20.8% vs R: 18.6%
Cooper PrattR	25%	17.4%	11.8% vs R: 4.3%	13.2% vs R: 16.7%	9.7% vs R: 11.1%	16.9% vs R: 14.8%	0% vs R: 0%
David HamiltonL	23.5%	20.4%	12.5% vs R: 13.5%	21.7% vs R: 17.6%	17% vs R: 14%	13.8% vs R: 11.6%	28% vs R: 33.3%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sinker	Slider	Changeup	4-Seam Fastball	Curveball
Sal FrelickL	3.1% vs R: 2%	10.7% vs R: 13%	6.7% vs R: 4.3%	9.7% vs R: 8.1%	12.5% vs R: 15.8%
Jake BauersL	14.6% vs R: 18.8%	29.2% vs R: 32.1%	43.2% vs R: 39.7%	18.5% vs R: 18.6%	40.3% vs R: 42.9%
Jackson ChourioR	8.2% vs R: 9.5%	30.8% vs R: 26.6%	21% vs R: 33.3%	23.1% vs R: 19.1%	30.3% vs R: 38.9%
Christian YelichL	14.8% vs R: 22%	45.5% vs R: 44.7%	21.6% vs R: 26.3%	19.9% vs R: 20.4%	33.3% vs R: 33.3%
William ContrerasR	8.5% vs R: 5.5%	26.6% vs R: 26.3%	22.5% vs R: 33.3%	13.9% vs R: 13.5%	33.3% vs R: 13.3%
Brice TurangL	12% vs R: 13.8%	28.9% vs R: 21.1%	20.5% vs R: 17.7%	21.1% vs R: 21.8%	24.5% vs R: 24.4%
Garrett MitchellL	15.2% vs R: 7.9%	44.9% vs R: 41.1%	52.9% vs R: 53.7%	26.6% vs R: 27.5%	31.2% vs R: 29.7%
Cooper PrattR	19% vs R: 16.3%	25.4% vs R: 27.5%	18.9% vs R: 22.7%	15.5% vs R: 11.7%	7.7% vs R: 10%
David HamiltonL	12% vs R: 12.9%	38.2% vs R: 34.3%	29.1% vs R: 27.5%	11.3% vs R: 10.8%	33.3% vs R: 34.8%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Sal Frelick	8	0	0%	.500
Jake Bauers	8	2	25%	.625
William Contreras	8	1	12.5%	.500
Brice Turang	8	3	37.5%	.000
Garrett Mitchell	8	2	25%	.500
Jackson Chourio	6	2	33.3%	.333
Christian Yelich	6	3	50%	.000
David Hamilton	5	4	80%	.000
Cooper Pratt	3	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Sal Frelick	26.9%	26.7%	16%	85%
Jake Bauers	22%	21.6%	28.6%	66.7%
Jackson Chourio	34%	36.4%	19.2%	79.2%
Christian Yelich	24.8%	23.3%	14.3%	80.5%
William Contreras	27.1%	26.5%	16%	84.4%
Brice Turang	29.5%	32.4%	31.4%	77.2%
Garrett Mitchell	24.8%	24%	31%	67.3%
Cooper Pratt	29.7%	33.8%	10%	93.8%
David Hamilton	29.8%	22%	6.7%	92.5%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-18	Colorado Rockies	3	2
2026-07-24	St. Louis Cardinals	3.9	4
2026-07-30	Pittsburgh Pirates	4.5	5
2026-08-05	Athletics	4.2	3
2026-08-12	Chicago White Sox	1.6	4
2026-08-17	St. Louis Cardinals	1	5
2026-08-22	Arizona Diamondbacks	0.7	1
2026-09-04	Milwaukee Brewers	4.39	2

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 14.6%

!Whiff rate is 12.3%

!CSW rate is 23.7%

!Opponent K% is 22.4%

!Average pitch count is 86.2

!WHIP is 1.51

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-04	Milwaukee Brewers	Home	4	2	104	1.49	—	—
2026-08-28	Chicago Cubs	Away	5	5	96	1.46	14	35.7%
2026-08-22	Arizona Diamondbacks	Away	6	1	92	1.47	13	7.7%
2026-08-17	St. Louis Cardinals	Home	6.2	5	99	1.49	10	50%
2026-08-12	Chicago White Sox	Away	5.1	4	94	1.48	10	40%
2026-08-05	Athletics	Home	6	3	95	1.48	13	23.1%
2026-07-30	Pittsburgh Pirates	Home	6	5	90	1.52	16	31.2%
2026-07-24	St. Louis Cardinals	Away	5	4	76	1.57	9	44.4%
2026-07-18	Colorado Rockies	Away	2.1	2	48	1.64	5	40%
2026-07-12	Chicago Cubs	Home	2	1	30	1.54	3	33.3%