MLB pitcher strikeout

Kade Morris

@ Seattle Mariners2026-09-04DraftKingsRHP

Projection

4.1

Ensemble: 3.5

Market line

2.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+1.6

Over 2.5

20% (1/5)· 4U streak

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Recommendation

Over 2.5

DraftKings

Confidence

B+

70/100

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Pitcher K%

11.3%

Whiff%

19.8%

CSW%

20.5%

WHIP

2.45

Avg IP

2.9

Avg pitches

Last 5 avg Ks

2.0

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

Team chase

32.1%

Recent chase

29.6%

Recent contact

75.4%

Recent K% (7d)

25.9%

Opp K% vs RHP

21.5%

Opp K% vs LHP

22.7%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

2.5

DraftKings

Model projection

4.1

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

20%

1 of 5 overs

Average Ks

2.0

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

20% (1/5)· 4U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

2.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 2.5Model 4.1

Aug 30

vs BAL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 24

vs MIN

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Jul 4

vs MIA

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Jun 29

vs LAD

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Jun 6

@ HOU

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

8.5

DraftKings

Model projection

12.6

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

60%

3 of 5 overs

Average Outs

8.8

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

60% (3/5)· 2U streakLM ↓ -1

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

8.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 8.5Model 12.6

Aug 30

vs BAL

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 24

vs MIN

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Jul 4

vs MIA

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Jun 29

vs LAD

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Jun 6

@ HOU

OVER

Outs

+3.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Seattle Mariners

No prior starts found against Seattle Mariners.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	2.5	-111	-115	+1.6	-1.6	Best Over

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

64.7%

5+ Ks

42.7%

6+ Ks

23.2%

7+ Ks

11.3%

8+ Ks

4.9%

9+ Ks

1.5%

10+ Ks

0.4%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sinker	34.4%	7.5%	7.7%	93.6
4-Seam Fastball	22.1%	8%	10%	94.7
Slider	15.9%	33.3%	12.5%	88.6
Changeup	14.9%	31.2%	11.1%	88.4
Sweeper	7.2%	0%	20%	81.7
Curveball	5.6%	50%	25%	77.4

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

28.6%

2-Strike Foul%

26.5%

2-Strike Contact%

85.7%

Expected Ks

K Luck

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	5	40%	40%
1-2	16	31.2%	62.5%
2-2	10	30%	70%
3-2 (full)	5	0%	100%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sinker	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Changeup	Sweeper	Curveball
Randy ArozarenaR	18.3%	22.6%	13.2% vs R: 13.4%	22.2% vs R: 21.2%	21.4% vs R: 20.2%	9.2% vs R: 7.7%	14.6% vs R: 17.5%	22.7% vs R: 22.2%
Dominic CanzoneL	22.4%	21.6%	25.9% vs R: 24.1%	16.9% vs R: 17.9%	22.8% vs R: 27.7%	18.9% vs R: 19.1%	23.3% vs R: 37.5%	17.6% vs R: 17.9%
Julio RodríguezR	25%	21.8%	21.8% vs R: 19%	17.2% vs R: 17%	15.7% vs R: 16.5%	12.2% vs R: 12.2%	23.1% vs R: 23.1%	25.5% vs R: 25.8%
Cal RaleighS	35.7%	29.1%	18.2% vs R: 16%	21.2% vs R: 19.6%	22.6% vs R: 26%	16.3% vs R: 15.7%	21.7% vs R: 13.8%	20% vs R: 15.4%
Josh NaylorL	16%	11.5%	10.2% vs R: 8.3%	9% vs R: 8.3%	20.7% vs R: 19.2%	13.6% vs R: 14.6%	20.9% vs R: 13.3%	23.3% vs R: 21.9%
Cole YoungL	20.1%	15.8%	13.4% vs R: 23.5%	11.9% vs R: 11.8%	19.2% vs R: 10.5%	17.7% vs R: 19%	25.7% vs R: 20.6%	9.1% vs R: 13%
J.P. CrawfordL	17.8%	21.7%	18.6% vs R: 19.4%	13.3% vs R: 12.3%	20.7% vs R: 35%	15% vs R: 13.5%	14.3% vs R: 16.7%	13.9% vs R: 18.5%
Lazaro MontesL	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Brock RoddenS	31.2%	30.8%	0% vs R: 0%	33.3% vs R: 35.7%	60%	33.3% vs R: 33.3%	60%	—

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sinker	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Changeup	Sweeper	Curveball
Randy ArozarenaR	18.3% vs R: 20.2%	27.4% vs R: 29.6%	28.8% vs R: 29.7%	19.4% vs R: 21.9%	22% vs R: 24.1%	24.5% vs R: 28.1%
Dominic CanzoneL	16% vs R: 18.3%	15.8% vs R: 15.3%	36.7% vs R: 40.3%	27% vs R: 26.9%	32.4% vs R: 33.3%	36% vs R: 30%
Julio RodríguezR	8.6% vs R: 7.5%	24.4% vs R: 24.8%	32.2% vs R: 32.9%	30.7% vs R: 29.3%	33.7% vs R: 32.1%	50% vs R: 51.7%
Cal RaleighS	16.1% vs R: 14%	27% vs R: 24.8%	35.8% vs R: 32.7%	37.2% vs R: 36.6%	30.4% vs R: 30%	29.1% vs R: 25.8%
Josh NaylorL	10.1% vs R: 6.4%	5.9% vs R: 4.5%	29% vs R: 27.9%	20% vs R: 20.4%	30% vs R: 22.7%	32.3% vs R: 28.3%
Cole YoungL	8.4% vs R: 11%	15% vs R: 15.6%	28.2% vs R: 14.5%	20.8% vs R: 22.2%	29.4% vs R: 28.1%	8.3% vs R: 10.7%
J.P. CrawfordL	4% vs R: 5.2%	16.9% vs R: 14.8%	22.4% vs R: 29.3%	12.2% vs R: 10.6%	19.4% vs R: 25%	20.7% vs R: 25%
Lazaro MontesL	—	—	—	—	—	—
Brock RoddenS	18.2% vs R: 28.6%	34.4% vs R: 37.5%	71.4%	57.9% vs R: 60%	75%	—

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

No head-to-head history found for this lineup.

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Randy Arozarena	28.7%	22.2%	26%	75.9%
Dominic Canzone	36.3%	36.4%	26.1%	74.7%
Julio Rodríguez	38.5%	33.7%	34.7%	70.4%
Cal Raleigh	33.9%	30.4%	33.3%	64.2%
Josh Naylor	39.5%	42.7%	16.3%	85.7%
Cole Young	29.9%	26.4%	20.9%	78.8%
J.P. Crawford	18.4%	13.5%	22.9%	86.3%
Lazaro Montes	N/A	N/A	N/A	76.2%
Brock Rodden	31.7%	31.7%	25.9%	66.7%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-09-04	Seattle Mariners	4.06	0

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 11.3%

!Whiff rate is 19.8%

!CSW rate is 20.5%

!Opponent K% is 21.1%

!Average pitch count is 57

!WHIP is 2.45

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-08-30	Baltimore Orioles	Home	2	2	35	2.11	5	40%
2026-08-24	Minnesota Twins	Home	2.2	2	41	2.37	4	50%
2026-07-04	Miami Marlins	Home	3	0	68	2.5	6	0%
2026-06-29	Los Angeles Dodgers	Home	3	2	51	2.29	6	33.3%
2026-06-06	Houston Astros	Away	4	4	90	3	—	—