MLB pitcher strikeout

Paul Skenes

vs Los Angeles Angels2026-09-06PinnacleRHP

Projection

6.2

Ensemble: 6.2

Market line

7.5

Pinnacle

Model edge

+1.3

Under 7.5

20% (2/10)· 6U streak

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Recommendation

Under 7.5

Pinnacle

Confidence

88/100

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Pitcher K%

21.5%

Whiff%

25.8%

CSW%

25.9%

WHIP

1.11

Avg IP

5.2

Avg pitches

90.8

Last 5 avg Ks

4.6

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

28.7%

Team chase

33.4%

Recent chase

30.7%

Recent contact

75.8%

Recent K% (7d)

28.1%

Opp K% vs RHP

25.6%

Opp K% vs LHP

24.6%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

7.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

6.2

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

20%

2 of 10 overs

Average Ks

6.0

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

20% (2/10)· 6U streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

7.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 7.5Model 6.2

Sep 1

vs SF

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Aug 25

@ SD

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Aug 19

vs DET

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Aug 11

@ MIA

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Aug 5

@ MIL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

16.5

FanDuel

Model projection

16.3

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Outs

15.8

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.7

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

16.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 16.5Model 16.3

Sep 1

vs SF

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 25

@ SD

OVER

Outs

+1.5

Aug 19

vs DET

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

Aug 11

@ MIA

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Aug 5

@ MIL

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Los Angeles Angels

No prior starts found against Los Angeles Angels.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	6.5	-161	+126	-0.3	+0.3	—
Pinnacle	7.5	+116	-148	-1.3	+1.3	Best Under
FanDuel	7.5	+120	-154	-1.3	+1.3	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

85.7%

5+ Ks

70.2%

6+ Ks

52.4%

7+ Ks

33.4%

8+ Ks

18.4%Line

9+ Ks

9.2%

10+ Ks

3.9%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	44.6%	28.6%	25.4%	96.7
Sweeper	15.5%	28.6%	20.6%	84.6
Slider	10.9%	30.8%	27.5%	86.9
Splitter	9.8%	18.6%	10%	92.9
Sinker	9.7%	13.8%	18.4%	96.6
Changeup	9.5%	36.4%	15.2%	88.5

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

42.6%

2-Strike Foul%

23.3%

2-Strike Contact%

74.6%

Expected Ks

K Luck

-5

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	18	38.9%	61.1%
1-2	34	44.1%	55.9%
2-2	23	34.8%	65.2%
3-2 (full)	17	35.3%	64.7%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Sweeper	Slider	Splitter	Sinker	Changeup
Zach NetoR	26.2%	32.8%	17.4% vs R: 21%	28.6% vs R: 26.3%	24.3% vs R: 21.5%	22.5% vs R: 22.5%	24.3% vs R: 22.7%	24.4% vs R: 31.3%
Mike TroutR	23.5%	26.5%	14.3% vs R: 15.3%	16.3% vs R: 14.6%	28.7% vs R: 31.9%	22.7% vs R: 22.7%	14.9% vs R: 16.3%	23.5% vs R: 26.1%
Wade MecklerL	22.9%	20.8%	23.1% vs R: 22.8%	45.5% vs R: 37.5%	14.3% vs R: 11.1%	19% vs R: 19%	30.4% vs R: 33.3%	28% vs R: 29.2%
Vaughn GrissomR	15.2%	19.2%	15% vs R: 16.9%	14.6% vs R: 16.2%	22.7% vs R: 24.4%	19% vs R: 19%	10.7% vs R: 11.1%	14.6% vs R: 26.7%
Moisés BallesterosL	23.3%	23.1%	28% vs R: 29.8%	8.7% vs R: 6.2%	12.1% vs R: 8.1%	0% vs R: 0%	21.6% vs R: 21.4%	18.6% vs R: 19%
Christian MooreR	24%	34.8%	25.5% vs R: 25%	30.8% vs R: 40%	0% vs R: 0%	—	25% vs R: 25%	33.3%
Josh LoweL	33.3%	27.1%	17.6% vs R: 17.4%	17.1% vs R: 14.8%	24.6% vs R: 23.3%	10% vs R: 10%	22.7% vs R: 28.1%	7.9% vs R: 6.6%
Denzer GuzmanR	30%	24.1%	24% vs R: 21.4%	16.3% vs R: 17.1%	17.1% vs R: 20.7%	50% vs R: 50%	21.2% vs R: 20%	40% vs R: 29.4%
Tyler HeinemanS	15.2%	14.3%	19.6% vs R: 19.4%	23.1% vs R: 20%	5.3% vs R: 0%	26.3% vs R: 26.3%	8.3% vs R: 14.3%	9.1% vs R: 7.1%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Sweeper	Slider	Splitter	Sinker	Changeup
Zach NetoR	19.3% vs R: 21.9%	49.1% vs R: 45.6%	38.7% vs R: 38.7%	44.7% vs R: 44.4%	18% vs R: 17.3%	43.8% vs R: 44.9%
Mike TroutR	16.3% vs R: 17.7%	20.8% vs R: 19.6%	41.7% vs R: 43.4%	30.8% vs R: 30.8%	9.8% vs R: 10.9%	31.9% vs R: 30.2%
Wade MecklerL	10.7% vs R: 9.3%	24% vs R: 26.7%	21.9% vs R: 17.6%	31.4% vs R: 31.4%	14% vs R: 11.4%	31.6% vs R: 30.4%
Vaughn GrissomR	17.1% vs R: 14.7%	21% vs R: 20%	32% vs R: 31.4%	36.8% vs R: 36.8%	12.4% vs R: 12.6%	19.3% vs R: 25%
Moisés BallesterosL	31.6% vs R: 34.8%	23.1% vs R: 23.5%	28.1% vs R: 26.4%	8.7% vs R: 8.7%	13.7% vs R: 17.9%	29.6% vs R: 29%
Christian MooreR	25.3% vs R: 17.4%	62.5% vs R: 69.2%	31.6% vs R: 31.2%	—	22.2% vs R: 36.4%	33.3%
Josh LoweL	29.2% vs R: 29.5%	33.3% vs R: 27.3%	40.7% vs R: 37.9%	31.7% vs R: 31.7%	9.1% vs R: 13.6%	26.9% vs R: 26.7%
Denzer GuzmanR	23.3% vs R: 17.7%	28.6% vs R: 28.6%	25% vs R: 27%	27.3% vs R: 22.2%	11.4% vs R: 6.6%	53.8% vs R: 50%
Tyler HeinemanS	10% vs R: 10.1%	28.6% vs R: 30.4%	27.3% vs R: 25%	42.3% vs R: 44%	5.6% vs R: 4.8%	17.9% vs R: 15.4%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Moisés Ballesteros	4	2	50%	.250
Tyler Heineman	4	2	50%	.000
Josh Lowe	3	0	0%	.667

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Zach Neto	42.3%	41%	34.1%	67.7%
Mike Trout	23.3%	21.4%	26.5%	76.5%
Wade Meckler	22.9%	18.8%	11.4%	81.8%
Vaughn Grissom	36.8%	35.6%	16.7%	82.6%
Moisés Ballesteros	38.3%	40.4%	35.9%	69.8%
Christian Moore	28.5%	26%	20%	76.2%
Josh Lowe	36.1%	27.1%	24.1%	65.6%
Denzer Guzman	33.6%	32.8%	33.3%	73.6%
Tyler Heineman	38.8%	33.3%	N/A	88%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-07	Atlanta Braves	8.9	4
2026-07-12	Milwaukee Brewers	8.6	7
2026-07-19	Cleveland Guardians	8.1	8
2026-07-25	Chicago Cubs	7	11
2026-07-31	Cincinnati Reds	6.9	7
2026-08-05	Milwaukee Brewers	6.6	6
2026-08-11	Miami Marlins	8.7	4
2026-08-19	Detroit Tigers	7.4	5
2026-08-25	San Diego Padres	7.7	4
2026-09-01	San Francisco Giants	6.02	4
2026-09-06	Los Angeles Angels	6.21	—

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 21.5%

!Whiff rate is 25.8%

!CSW rate is 25.9%

✓Opponent K% is 24.9%

✓Average pitch count is 90.8

✓WHIP is 1.11

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-01	San Francisco Giants	Home	4.2	4	95	1.16	12	33.3%
2026-08-25	San Diego Padres	Away	6	4	87	1.12	13	30.8%
2026-08-19	Detroit Tigers	Home	4.1	5	81	1.14	10	50%
2026-08-11	Miami Marlins	Away	5	4	65	1.12	7	57.1%
2026-08-05	Milwaukee Brewers	Away	5	6	93	1.12	12	50%
2026-07-31	Cincinnati Reds	Away	4	7	100	1.11	14	50%
2026-07-25	Chicago Cubs	Home	5.1	11	105	1.06	16	68.8%
2026-07-19	Cleveland Guardians	Away	7	8	100	1.04	12	66.7%
2026-07-12	Milwaukee Brewers	Home	5.1	7	82	1.02	11	63.6%
2026-07-07	Atlanta Braves	Home	6	4	95	1.04	13	30.8%