MLB pitcher strikeout

Brandon Pfaadt

@ Houston Astros2026-09-05DraftKingsRHP

Projection

4.2

Ensemble: 4.1

Market line

4.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.3

Under 4.5

20% (2/10)· 3U streak

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Recommendation

Under 4.5

DraftKings

Confidence

80/100

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Pitcher K%

17.2%

Whiff%

22.4%

CSW%

27.6%

WHIP

1.2

Avg IP

6.5

Avg pitches

92.8

Last 5 avg Ks

4.6

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

15.7%

Team chase

34.1%

Recent chase

34.8%

Recent contact

79.3%

Recent K% (7d)

20.5%

Opp K% vs RHP

20.8%

Opp K% vs LHP

21%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

4.5

DraftKings

Model projection

4.2

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

20%

2 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.6

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.9

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

20% (2/10)· 3U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

4.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 4.5Model 4.2

Sep 5

@ HOU

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 31

vs PHI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Aug 25

vs CHC

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 19

@ BOS

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Aug 14

@ ATL

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

17.5

FanDuel

Model projection

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

80%

8 of 10 overs

Average Outs

19.0

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

80% (8/10)· 3O streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

17.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 17.5Model 16

Sep 5

@ HOU

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 31

vs PHI

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 25

vs CHC

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Aug 19

@ BOS

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 14

@ ATL

OVER

Outs

+3.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Houston Astros

No prior starts found against Houston Astros.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	4.5	+128	-164	-0.3	+0.3	Best Under
Pinnacle	4.5	+119	-159	-0.3	+0.3	—
FanDuel	4.5	+128	-164	-0.3	+0.3	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

63.3%

5+ Ks

42.3%Line

6+ Ks

23.8%

7+ Ks

11.5%

8+ Ks

4.2%

9+ Ks

1.3%

10+ Ks

0.4%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	29.5%	9.8%	10%	93
Changeup	21%	22.6%	13.9%	87.1
Sinker	14.2%	6.1%	11.5%	92.9
Sweeper	12.6%	30.6%	20.3%	84.4
Curveball	11.8%	26.2%	15.8%	82.6
Cutter	10.9%	12.7%	11.1%	90.3

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

32.8%

2-Strike Foul%

22.8%

2-Strike Contact%

80.6%

Expected Ks

K Luck

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	27	29.6%	70.4%
1-2	37	29.7%	70.3%
2-2	33	27.3%	72.7%
3-2 (full)	18	27.8%	72.2%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Sinker	Sweeper	Curveball	Cutter
Jeremy PeñaR	24.4%	21.5%	16.5% vs R: 11.2%	15.8% vs R: 14.3%	7.7% vs R: 8.1%	20.3% vs R: 21.2%	44.4% vs R: 44.4%	4.5% vs R: 5.3%
Yordan AlvarezL	15.6%	17.7%	13.5% vs R: 15.3%	15.2% vs R: 14.5%	18.8% vs R: 19.6%	28.6% vs R: 35.3%	20% vs R: 13.9%	20.5% vs R: 20%
Isaac ParedesR	15%	12.2%	9.4% vs R: 10.5%	7.6% vs R: 9%	5.7% vs R: 4.8%	7.1% vs R: 6.3%	14.9% vs R: 7.5%	2.7% vs R: 3.1%
Jose AltuveR	20.4%	20.5%	24.3% vs R: 23.4%	19% vs R: 23.8%	25% vs R: 26.4%	18.4% vs R: 15.4%	11.5% vs R: 30%	13.8% vs R: 4.8%
Daulton VarshoL	20%	19.8%	21.1% vs R: 22.2%	13.1% vs R: 16.7%	21.8% vs R: 20.6%	12.8% vs R: 9.1%	19.6% vs R: 18.4%	11.1% vs R: 10.5%
Christian WalkerR	19.7%	24.5%	22.9% vs R: 22.7%	22.2% vs R: 22.2%	10.4% vs R: 12.7%	19.8% vs R: 21.1%	19.2% vs R: 16.7%	15.6% vs R: 14.3%
Yainer DiazR	23.1%	13%	23.5% vs R: 20.8%	24% vs R: 20%	41.2% vs R: 50%	5.6% vs R: 6.2%	4.5% vs R: 0%	20% vs R: 11.1%
Taylor TrammellL	24.2%	32.1%	27.4% vs R: 28.7%	13.3% vs R: 13.3%	35.3% vs R: 40%	12.5% vs R: 16.7%	27.3% vs R: 27.3%	0% vs R: 0%
Cam SmithR	23.3%	25.4%	17.5% vs R: 21%	30.3% vs R: 31%	12.9% vs R: 11.5%	27.5% vs R: 28.2%	3.8% vs R: 4.8%	9.4% vs R: 9.1%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Sinker	Sweeper	Curveball	Cutter
Jeremy PeñaR	14.8% vs R: 13.7%	43.1% vs R: 36.8%	9.3% vs R: 8.7%	40% vs R: 42.9%	54.8% vs R: 51.5%	26.6% vs R: 26.8%
Yordan AlvarezL	14.2% vs R: 15.3%	15.9% vs R: 14.9%	7.5% vs R: 7.3%	25.4% vs R: 21.9%	29.7% vs R: 28.9%	14.3% vs R: 12.2%
Isaac ParedesR	9.7% vs R: 10.8%	22.7% vs R: 24.3%	6.1% vs R: 5.7%	22.2% vs R: 20.8%	15.6% vs R: 15.8%	13.5% vs R: 18.2%
Jose AltuveR	20.8% vs R: 22.3%	18.5% vs R: 29%	14.1% vs R: 14.9%	33% vs R: 30.7%	22% vs R: 13.3%	11.8% vs R: 9.4%
Daulton VarshoL	18.1% vs R: 18.9%	19.8% vs R: 22%	13.4% vs R: 14.9%	18.5% vs R: 12.5%	20.3% vs R: 20.4%	15.3% vs R: 15.3%
Christian WalkerR	26.3% vs R: 26.8%	34.6% vs R: 36.4%	9.6% vs R: 9.9%	39.1% vs R: 39%	36.1% vs R: 38.8%	20% vs R: 20%
Yainer DiazR	20.8% vs R: 19.5%	20.4% vs R: 11.8%	13.5% vs R: 15.3%	17.8% vs R: 18.2%	20% vs R: 11.1%	13.5% vs R: 5.9%
Taylor TrammellL	31% vs R: 32.4%	33.9% vs R: 34.4%	15.4% vs R: 16.7%	30.8% vs R: 27.3%	57.1% vs R: 50%	29% vs R: 27.6%
Cam SmithR	19.9% vs R: 20.1%	48.7% vs R: 48.6%	10.6% vs R: 10.8%	50.5% vs R: 55.2%	18.2% vs R: 27.8%	22.7% vs R: 31%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Yainer Diaz	6	0	0%	.600
Jeremy Peña	3	1	33.3%	.000
Yordan Alvarez	3	1	33.3%	.333
Jose Altuve	3	0	0%	.667
Christian Walker	3	2	66.7%	.333
Taylor Trammell	3	1	33.3%	.000
Isaac Paredes	2	0	0%	1.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Jeremy Peña	40%	45.2%	30.8%	65.7%
Yordan Alvarez	30.7%	35.4%	19.2%	88%
Isaac Paredes	26.9%	25.6%	7.7%	89%
Jose Altuve	38.7%	43.8%	21.3%	84.5%
Daulton Varsho	37.2%	35.8%	17.4%	76.2%
Christian Walker	33%	25.8%	21.3%	77.8%
Yainer Diaz	42.9%	40.4%	13.8%	76.9%
Taylor Trammell	27.9%	28.8%	16.1%	77.6%
Cam Smith	29.6%	32.4%	26.7%	77.8%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-11	Los Angeles Dodgers	0.1	2
2026-07-18	St. Louis Cardinals	0.2	3
2026-07-23	St. Louis Cardinals	3.5	1
2026-07-28	Pittsburgh Pirates	4	4
2026-08-03	San Diego Padres	3.9	3
2026-08-08	Los Angeles Dodgers	3.9	2
2026-08-14	Atlanta Braves	2.4	7
2026-08-19	Boston Red Sox	3	8
2026-08-25	Chicago Cubs	3	3
2026-08-31	Philadelphia Phillies	3.4	1
2026-09-05	Houston Astros	4.19	4

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 17.2%

!Whiff rate is 22.4%

!CSW rate is 27.6%

!Opponent K% is 20.2%

✓Average pitch count is 92.8

!WHIP is 1.2

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	Houston Astros	Away	6	4	82	1.15	—	—
2026-08-31	Philadelphia Phillies	Home	6	1	87	1.14	10	10%
2026-08-25	Chicago Cubs	Home	6.2	3	103	1.14	12	25%
2026-08-19	Boston Red Sox	Away	5.2	8	94	1.14	15	53.3%
2026-08-14	Atlanta Braves	Away	7	7	87	1.13	14	50%
2026-08-08	Los Angeles Dodgers	Home	7	2	93	1.2	13	15.4%
2026-08-03	San Diego Padres	Home	6.2	3	90	1.26	10	30%
2026-07-28	Pittsburgh Pirates	Away	7	4	101	1.29	12	33.3%
2026-07-23	St. Louis Cardinals	Away	6	1	87	1.32	10	10%
2026-07-18	St. Louis Cardinals	Home	5.1	3	87	1.31	10	30%