MLB pitcher strikeout

Nolan McLean

vs San Francisco Giants2026-09-04PinnacleRHP

Projection

5.0

Ensemble: 5.3

Market line

6.5

Pinnacle

Model edge

+1.5

Under 6.5

40% (4/10)· 5U streak

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Recommendation

Under 6.5

Pinnacle

Confidence

88/100

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Pitcher K%

19.7%

Whiff%

19.2%

CSW%

25.9%

WHIP

1.13

Avg IP

Avg pitches

94.4

Last 5 avg Ks

4.2

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

26%

Team chase

29.2%

Recent chase

28.8%

Recent contact

81.8%

Recent K% (7d)

20.8%

Opp K% vs RHP

19.7%

Opp K% vs LHP

22.4%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

6.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

5.0

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Ks

5.9

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 5U streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

6.5

0.527

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Under

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Line 6.5Model 5.0

Sep 4

vs SF

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 29

vs HOU

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Aug 23

@ CWS

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 17

vs SD

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Aug 11

@ ATL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

17.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

16.3

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

80%

8 of 10 overs

Average Outs

17.5

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.0

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

80% (8/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

17.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 17.5Model 16.3

Sep 4

vs SF

UNDER

Outs

-5.5

Aug 29

vs HOU

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Aug 23

@ CWS

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 17

vs SD

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 11

@ ATL

OVER

Outs

+0.5

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Analytics

Career vs. San Francisco Giants

No prior starts found against San Francisco Giants.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	5.5	-143	+112	-0.5	+0.5	—
Pinnacle	6.5	+134	-180	-1.5	+1.5	Best Under
FanDuel	6.5	+128	-164	-1.5	+1.5	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

75.4%

5+ Ks

56.2%

6+ Ks

36.6%

7+ Ks

19.8%Line

8+ Ks

9.6%

9+ Ks

3.7%

10+ Ks

1.3%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sinker	32%	8.5%	26.6%	95.1
4-Seam Fastball	22.6%	31.3%	26.5%	96
Curveball	16.4%	34.5%	23.5%	82.2
Cutter	10.5%	23.6%	15.8%	92.5
Sweeper	8.2%	25%	6.9%	85.1
Slider	6.3%	35.1%	20%	86
Changeup	4%	13.3%	6.2%	88.2

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

38.1%

2-Strike Foul%

21.4%

2-Strike Contact%

81.4%

Expected Ks

29.2

K Luck

-5.2

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	25	48%	48%
1-2	36	36.1%	61.1%
2-2	26	38.5%	61.5%
3-2 (full)	16	6.2%	93.8%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sinker	4-Seam Fastball	Curveball	Cutter	Sweeper	Slider	Changeup
Drew GilbertL	32.6%	15.5%	18.4% vs R: 15.4%	15.6% vs R: 15.3%	14.8% vs R: 16.7%	5.9% vs R: 6.2%	22.9% vs R: 16.1%	13.2% vs R: 10.3%	10.2% vs R: 10.3%
Rafael DeversL	28.3%	24.2%	14.4% vs R: 20.6%	22.2% vs R: 20.7%	11.4% vs R: 16.7%	19.6% vs R: 18.9%	26.9% vs R: 38.9%	17.6% vs R: 19%	14.1% vs R: 12.7%
Bryce EldridgeL	27.1%	25.7%	24.5% vs R: 35.7%	16.3% vs R: 17.6%	11.9% vs R: 12.9%	27% vs R: 22.6%	21.6% vs R: 13.6%	30.6% vs R: 25.6%	20% vs R: 17.6%
Turner HillL	0%	13.6%	8.3% vs R: 11.1%	9.1% vs R: 10%	20% vs R: 25%	—	0%	28.6% vs R: 33.3%	11.1% vs R: 11.1%
Jung Hoo LeeL	12.5%	8.8%	13.8% vs R: 7.1%	9.4% vs R: 10.6%	18.2% vs R: 18.2%	10.5% vs R: 6.7%	9.4% vs R: 4.5%	8% vs R: 7.3%	7.5% vs R: 5.9%
Drew CavanaughL	46.7%	23.9%	11.1% vs R: 14.3%	29.1% vs R: 25%	37.5% vs R: 37.5%	25% vs R: 25%	16.7% vs R: 20%	21.7% vs R: 11.1%	15.4% vs R: 15.4%
Osleivis BasabeR	17.1%	17.5%	0% vs R: 0%	17.9% vs R: 23.5%	12.5% vs R: 25%	14.3% vs R: 50%	8.3% vs R: 11.1%	18.8% vs R: 9.1%	21.7% vs R: 14.3%
Nate FurmanL	—	20.7%	100% vs R: 100%	12.5% vs R: 12.5%	—	—	20% vs R: 20%	25% vs R: 25%	25% vs R: 25%
Christian KossR	22%	27.6%	17.6% vs R: 20%	26.9% vs R: 36.4%	20%	12.5% vs R: 0%	23.5% vs R: 26.7%	40% vs R: 37.5%	26.3% vs R: 28.6%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sinker	4-Seam Fastball	Curveball	Cutter	Sweeper	Slider	Changeup
Drew GilbertL	15.5% vs R: 16.7%	15.8% vs R: 13.8%	18.9% vs R: 20%	10.2% vs R: 7.4%	29.8% vs R: 22.5%	26.4% vs R: 25%	25% vs R: 25.3%
Rafael DeversL	11.8% vs R: 8.1%	35.1% vs R: 32.3%	13.3% vs R: 14.3%	26.4% vs R: 23.4%	33.7% vs R: 42.4%	30.1% vs R: 26.3%	20.4% vs R: 17.9%
Bryce EldridgeL	9.6% vs R: 9.8%	15% vs R: 16.4%	26.3% vs R: 25.8%	21.2% vs R: 20.3%	35.6% vs R: 33.3%	43% vs R: 38.9%	37.4% vs R: 39%
Turner HillL	0% vs R: 0%	9.1% vs R: 10.5%	20% vs R: 20%	—	33.3%	18.2% vs R: 20%	14.3% vs R: 14.3%
Jung Hoo LeeL	11.8% vs R: 7.6%	8.7% vs R: 8.2%	10.7% vs R: 9.8%	14.6% vs R: 14.9%	5.8% vs R: 3.2%	15.5% vs R: 15.2%	10.1% vs R: 9.5%
Drew CavanaughL	0% vs R: 0%	17.9% vs R: 16.8%	46.2% vs R: 45.5%	22.2% vs R: 22.2%	27.3% vs R: 27.3%	31.2% vs R: 13.6%	20.8% vs R: 21.7%
Osleivis BasabeR	3.2% vs R: 0%	12.7% vs R: 14.7%	22.2% vs R: 40%	23.5% vs R: 27.3%	33.3% vs R: 30%	38.9% vs R: 30.8%	16% vs R: 25%
Nate FurmanL	0% vs R: 0%	0% vs R: 0%	—	—	16.7% vs R: 16.7%	26.7% vs R: 28.6%	14.3% vs R: 14.3%
Christian KossR	14.5% vs R: 17.1%	25.8% vs R: 28.8%	0%	16.7% vs R: 11.8%	26.1% vs R: 25%	41.2% vs R: 36.7%	41.2% vs R: 33.3%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Rafael Devers	2	1	50%	.000
Jung Hoo Lee	2	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Drew Gilbert	23.8%	32.6%	17.1%	78.3%
Rafael Devers	28.4%	26.8%	20%	76%
Bryce Eldridge	23%	24.1%	23.4%	77.5%
Turner Hill	18.8%	14.5%	7.1%	92.6%
Jung Hoo Lee	33.3%	32.9%	8.3%	90.6%
Drew Cavanaugh	26.6%	21.2%	40%	74.6%
Osleivis Basabe	37%	26.2%	15.6%	84%
Nate Furman	33.3%	45%	22.7%	85%
Christian Koss	39%	35.7%	27.1%	77.9%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-10	Boston Red Sox	7.6	7
2026-07-19	Philadelphia Phillies	8.6	10
2026-07-25	Los Angeles Dodgers	6.7	7
2026-07-30	Miami Marlins	6.9	6
2026-08-06	Cleveland Guardians	6.5	8
2026-08-11	Atlanta Braves	9.2	3
2026-08-17	San Diego Padres	7.5	3
2026-08-23	Chicago White Sox	6.8	6
2026-08-29	Houston Astros	7	4
2026-09-04	San Francisco Giants	4.99	7

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 19.7%

!Whiff rate is 19.2%

!CSW rate is 25.9%

!Opponent K% is 20.4%

✓Average pitch count is 94.4

✓WHIP is 1.13

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-04	San Francisco Giants	Home	4	5	77	1.14	—	—
2026-08-29	Houston Astros	Home	7	4	93	1.12	10	40%
2026-08-23	Chicago White Sox	Away	6	6	92	1.14	16	37.5%
2026-08-17	San Diego Padres	Home	6	3	103	1.16	14	21.4%
2026-08-11	Atlanta Braves	Away	6	3	85	1.13	11	27.3%
2026-08-06	Cleveland Guardians	Away	5	8	94	1.16	12	66.7%
2026-07-30	Miami Marlins	Home	6.1	6	99	1.12	15	40%
2026-07-25	Los Angeles Dodgers	Home	6	7	96	1.11	14	50%
2026-07-19	Philadelphia Phillies	Away	6	10	93	1.09	15	66.7%
2026-07-10	Boston Red Sox	Home	6	7	98	1.12	13	53.8%