MLB pitcher strikeout

Kyle Harrison

@ Cincinnati Reds2026-09-06DraftKingsLHP

Projection

5.4

Ensemble: 5.4

Market line

6.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+1.1

Under 6.5

40% (4/10)· 2U streak

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Recommendation

Under 6.5

DraftKings

Confidence

88/100

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Pitcher K%

27.1%

Whiff%

26.2%

CSW%

31.2%

WHIP

1.1

Avg IP

4.4

Avg pitches

82.5

Last 5 avg Ks

5.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

26.2%

Team chase

29.5%

Recent chase

27.6%

Recent contact

75.6%

Recent K% (7d)

24%

Opp K% vs RHP

24.6%

Opp K% vs LHP

27.1%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

6.5

DraftKings

Model projection

5.4

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Ks

5.3

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.2

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 2U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

6.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 6.5Model 5.4

Aug 31

@ CHC

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Aug 25

@ NYM

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 18

vs SEA

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 11

@ SD

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Aug 5

vs PIT

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

15.5

FanDuel

Model projection

15.4

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

20%

2 of 10 overs

Average Outs

14.2

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

20% (2/10)· 8U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

15.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 15.5Model 15.4

Aug 31

@ CHC

UNDER

Outs

-4.5

Aug 25

@ NYM

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 18

vs SEA

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 11

@ SD

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Aug 5

vs PIT

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Cincinnati Reds

No prior starts found against Cincinnati Reds.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	6.5	-111	-114	-1.1	+1.1	Best Under
FanDuel	6.5	-111	-115	-1.1	+1.1	—
Pinnacle	6.5	-111	-115	-1.1	+1.1	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

80.9%

5+ Ks

63.6%

6+ Ks

43.7%

7+ Ks

25.9%Line

8+ Ks

12.5%

9+ Ks

5.7%

10+ Ks

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	55.5%	22%	21.5%	94.4
Slurve	33.7%	28.2%	20.2%	81.8
Changeup	7.9%	19.4%	6.7%	85.3
Sinker	2.9%	8.3%	0%	94.4

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

50%

2-Strike Foul%

28.1%

2-Strike Contact%

72.9%

Expected Ks

25.6

K Luck

+3.4

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	23	52.2%	47.8%
1-2	36	50%	50%
2-2	26	38.5%	61.5%
3-2 (full)	12	33.3%	66.7%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Slurve	Changeup	Sinker
Héctor RodríguezL	42.1%	22.4%	18.8% vs L: 25%	—	18.2%	12.5% vs L: 0%
Elly De La CruzS	26.1%	27.4%	18.6% vs L: 18.6%	—	13.8% vs L: 20.6%	27.3% vs L: 14.3%
Sal StewartR	22.5%	20.8%	24.2% vs L: 19%	11.1%	12.3% vs L: 9.1%	13.5% vs L: 16.7%
JJ BledayL	22.5%	20.8%	15.1% vs L: 13.5%	28.6%	22% vs L: 37.5%	12.3% vs L: 3.4%
Eugenio SuárezR	40.8%	32.7%	21.1% vs L: 18.3%	11.1%	22.6% vs L: 9.1%	28.2% vs L: 45.5%
Matt McLainR	21.5%	29.2%	23.5% vs L: 14%	—	10.6% vs L: 14.3%	18.8% vs L: 18.2%
Jose TrevinoR	19.2%	18.3%	22.2% vs L: 0%	—	13.3% vs L: 18.2%	26.1% vs L: 25%
TJ FriedlL	22.2%	23.1%	22% vs L: 33.3%	—	30%	14.3% vs L: 100%
Edwin ArroyoS	24.4%	23.1%	10% vs L: 6.7%	—	26.1% vs L: 33.3%	23.1% vs L: 0%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Slurve	Changeup	Sinker
Héctor RodríguezL	20.8% vs L: 25%	—	30.8%	25% vs L: 42.9%
Elly De La CruzS	17% vs L: 7.9%	—	33.5% vs L: 34.1%	10.7% vs L: 6.9%
Sal StewartR	31.4% vs L: 24.4%	18.2%	24.4% vs L: 22.9%	13.8% vs L: 9.8%
JJ BledayL	12.4% vs L: 10.9%	33.3%	40.1% vs L: 72.7%	13.1% vs L: 20%
Eugenio SuárezR	29.5% vs L: 30%	40%	35.8% vs L: 25.9%	12% vs L: 36.4%
Matt McLainR	25.9% vs L: 11.5%	—	27.6% vs L: 25%	10% vs L: 6.9%
Jose TrevinoR	21.1% vs L: 0%	—	26.1% vs L: 31.2%	7% vs L: 25%
TJ FriedlL	12.4% vs L: 9.1%	—	49.3%	5.5% vs L: 5.6%
Edwin ArroyoS	13.1% vs L: 10.3%	—	28.8% vs L: 40%	15.6% vs L: 12.5%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Elly De La Cruz	8	2	25%	.000
Eugenio Suárez	8	2	25%	.000
TJ Friedl	6	2	33.3%	.250
JJ Bleday	2	0	0%	.500

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Héctor Rodríguez	38.9%	40%	34.1%	66.3%
Elly De La Cruz	25.9%	26.4%	27.1%	79.2%
Sal Stewart	33.4%	35.9%	12.8%	78.4%
JJ Bleday	21.4%	21.2%	15.2%	81.6%
Eugenio Suárez	28.1%	20.2%	29.7%	65.1%
Matt McLain	27.6%	30.1%	25%	82.3%
Jose Trevino	33.7%	22.7%	20%	77.5%
TJ Friedl	18.2%	10.7%	N/A	87.5%
Edwin Arroyo	38.6%	41.5%	38.9%	62.2%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-08	St. Louis Cardinals	7.2	2
2026-08-05	Pittsburgh Pirates	5	10
2026-08-11	San Diego Padres	7.4	3
2026-08-18	Seattle Mariners	5.8	8
2026-08-25	New York Mets	5.6	5
2026-08-31	Chicago Cubs	6.7	3
2026-09-06	Cincinnati Reds	5.37	—

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 27.1%

!Whiff rate is 26.2%

✓CSW rate is 31.2%

✓Opponent K% is 25.3%

!Average pitch count is 82.5

✓WHIP is 1.1

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-08-31	Chicago Cubs	Away	3.2	3	98	1.2	11	27.3%
2026-08-25	New York Mets	Away	5	5	90	1.12	14	35.7%
2026-08-18	Seattle Mariners	Home	5	8	79	1.11	13	61.5%
2026-08-11	San Diego Padres	Away	4.2	3	90	1.13	8	37.5%
2026-08-05	Pittsburgh Pirates	Home	5	10	69	1.04	12	83.3%
2026-07-08	St. Louis Cardinals	Away	4	2	70	1.08	10	20%
2026-07-03	Arizona Diamondbacks	Away	2.2	3	72	1.08	10	30%
2026-06-27	Chicago Cubs	Home	5	9	92	1.04	16	56.2%
2026-06-20	Atlanta Braves	Away	6.1	7	85	1.06	12	58.3%
2026-06-14	Philadelphia Phillies	Home	6	3	80	1.1	12	25%