MLB pitcher strikeout

Mason Adams

vs St. Louis Cardinals2026-09-05FanDuelRHP

Projection

Ensemble: 4.8

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+1.5

Over 3.5

100% (3/3)· 3O streak

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this pitcher's projection, market line, and model edge.

Recommendation

Over 3.5

FanDuel

Confidence

B+

70/100

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this pitcher's recommendation and confidence grade.

Pitcher K%

26.3%

Whiff%

22.1%

CSW%

28.2%

WHIP

1.47

Avg IP

4.5

Avg pitches

74.5

Last 5 avg Ks

5.7

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

26.3%

Team chase

35.7%

Recent chase

32.9%

Recent contact

76.2%

Recent K% (7d)

20.5%

Opp K% vs RHP

25%

Opp K% vs LHP

21.9%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see matchup-specific stats.

Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model projection

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

100%

3 of 3 overs

Average Ks

5.7

Selected starts

Average margin

+2.2

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

100% (3/3)· 3O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 5

Sep 5

vs STL

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Aug 30

@ ATL

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 25

@ WSH

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

14.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

14.5

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

33%

1 of 3 overs

Average Outs

13.7

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.8

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

33% (1/3)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

14.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 14.5Model 14.5

Sep 5

vs STL

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 30

@ ATL

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 25

@ WSH

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see projection history vs. results.

Analytics

Career vs. St. Louis Cardinals

No prior starts found against St. Louis Cardinals.

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see career history vs. today's opponent.

Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	3.5	-113	-113	+1.5	-1.5	Best Over
Pinnacle	3.5	-113	-117	+1.5	-1.5	—
DraftKings	3.5	-122	-104	+1.5	-1.5	—

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see sportsbook lines and edges.

Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

78.9%Line

5+ Ks

59.9%

6+ Ks

39.6%

7+ Ks

22.3%

8+ Ks

10.6%

9+ Ks

4.4%

10+ Ks

1.6%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this pitcher's strikeout ladder.

Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	30.9%	22.2%	23.8%	93.2
Sinker	28.2%	4%	12.5%	92.1
Curveball	16.8%	57.1%	25%	82
Sweeper	12.8%	11.1%	0%	85
Cutter	6.7%	40%	—	88.2

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

47.6%

2-Strike Foul%

21.2%

2-Strike Contact%

69.2%

Expected Ks

K Luck

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	11	54.5%	45.5%
1-2	11	45.5%	54.5%
2-2	11	45.5%	54.5%
3-2 (full)	8	25%	75%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Sinker	Curveball	Sweeper	Cutter
Bryan TorresL	13.8%	20.7%	12.3% vs R: 13.5%	9.1% vs R: 11.8%	14.3% vs R: 14.3%	0% vs R: 0%	30% vs R: 30%
Iván HerreraR	15.4%	19.3%	13.7% vs R: 15.7%	12.7% vs R: 12.8%	13.6% vs R: 17.2%	19.8% vs R: 19.7%	11.6% vs R: 11.5%
Alec BurlesonL	17.6%	16.9%	20.1% vs R: 17.7%	7.5% vs R: 2.4%	13.2% vs R: 12.1%	16.1% vs R: 19.4%	17.2% vs R: 22.7%
Jordan WalkerR	21%	26.3%	26.4% vs R: 29.6%	29.6% vs R: 33.3%	27% vs R: 25%	13.9% vs R: 13.2%	26.3% vs R: 21.4%
Leo BernalS	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Joshua BáezR	34.3%	34.2%	47.4% vs R: 16.7%	14.3% vs R: 20%	40%	36.4% vs R: 37.5%	—
Nolan GormanL	26.2%	34%	19.5% vs R: 20.2%	22.2% vs R: 27.8%	30% vs R: 31.2%	30.4% vs R: 29.4%	31.8% vs R: 38.9%
Thomas SaggeseR	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Nathan ChurchL	15.9%	18.3%	15.1% vs R: 15.8%	5.9% vs R: 5.3%	10% vs R: 11.1%	31.2% vs R: 28.6%	6.7% vs R: 6.7%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see the lineup-vs-arsenal matchup breakdown.

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Sinker	Curveball	Sweeper	Cutter
Bryan TorresL	14.3% vs R: 16.3%	14.3% vs R: 20%	0% vs R: 0%	25% vs R: 28.6%	23.1% vs R: 23.1%
Iván HerreraR	11.4% vs R: 11.6%	9.5% vs R: 8.4%	17.4% vs R: 24.2%	22.8% vs R: 19.8%	17.4% vs R: 21.5%
Alec BurlesonL	19.1% vs R: 21.1%	17.7% vs R: 14.9%	22% vs R: 19.5%	28.9% vs R: 30.2%	19.8% vs R: 17.6%
Jordan WalkerR	20.1% vs R: 21.8%	18.7% vs R: 17.5%	40.6% vs R: 39.3%	30.9% vs R: 31.9%	28.4% vs R: 30.5%
Leo BernalS	—	—	—	—	—
Joshua BáezR	34.4% vs R: 33.3%	16.1% vs R: 20.8%	50%	40.9% vs R: 46.2%	—
Nolan GormanL	32.6% vs R: 33.3%	23.5% vs R: 23.5%	39.1% vs R: 33.3%	45.2% vs R: 47.6%	31.8% vs R: 34.2%
Thomas SaggeseR	—	—	—	—	—
Nathan ChurchL	18.1% vs R: 18.9%	9.1% vs R: 9.4%	14.6% vs R: 16.3%	31.9% vs R: 34.8%	16.3% vs R: 17.1%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see the lineup-vs-arsenal whiff matchup breakdown.

Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

No head-to-head history found for this lineup.

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Bryan Torres	26.2%	23.8%	N/A	78.3%
Iván Herrera	28.5%	19.2%	18%	82.6%
Alec Burleson	39.8%	46.4%	21.3%	77.7%
Jordan Walker	36.4%	36%	34%	66.7%
Leo Bernal	N/A	14.3%	17.6%	82.6%
Joshua Báez	41.5%	46.8%	36.1%	64.3%
Nolan Gorman	36.2%	40%	37%	66%
Thomas Saggese	N/A	33.3%	18.2%	76.9%
Nathan Church	41.2%	36.5%	7.5%	90.5%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see batter-vs-pitcher history and lineup chase rate.

Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-08-25	Washington Nationals	0	5
2026-08-30	Atlanta Braves	4.2	5
2026-09-05	St. Louis Cardinals	5	7

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see projection history and model reasoning.

Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 26.3%

!Whiff rate is 22.1%

!CSW rate is 28.2%

!Opponent K% is 21.5%

!Average pitch count is 74.5

!WHIP is 1.47

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see why this projection was made.

Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	St. Louis Cardinals	Home	4.2	7	78	1.61	—	—
2026-08-30	Atlanta Braves	Away	5	5	74	1.44	9	55.6%
2026-08-25	Washington Nationals	Away	4	5	75	1.5	12	41.7%