MLB pitcher strikeout

Ryan Gusto

vs Chicago Cubs2026-09-05DraftKingsRHP

Projection

4.3

Ensemble: 4.0

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.8

Over 3.5

60% (6/10)· 2O streak

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Recommendation

Over 3.5

DraftKings

Confidence

80/100

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Pitcher K%

17.8%

Whiff%

23.6%

CSW%

34.3%

WHIP

1.35

Avg IP

4.6

Avg pitches

71.1

Last 5 avg Ks

3.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

19%

Team chase

28.6%

Recent chase

30%

Recent contact

80%

Recent K% (7d)

20.3%

Opp K% vs RHP

23.8%

Opp K% vs LHP

19.1%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model projection

4.3

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.7

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.2

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

60% (6/10)· 2O streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 4.3

Sep 5

vs CHC

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 31

@ WSH

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 26

vs BOS

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 21

vs WSH

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 15

@ CIN

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

14.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Outs

13.1

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.4

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 2U streakLM ↑ +1

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

14.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 14.5Model 15

Sep 5

vs CHC

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 31

@ WSH

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Aug 26

vs BOS

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Aug 21

vs WSH

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 15

@ CIN

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Chicago Cubs

No prior starts found against Chicago Cubs.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	3.5	-136	+107	+0.8	-0.8	Best Over
FanDuel	3.5	-148	+116	+0.8	-0.8	—
Pinnacle	3.5	-143	+108	+0.8	-0.8	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

66.9%Line

5+ Ks

45.2%

6+ Ks

26.5%

7+ Ks

13.1%

8+ Ks

5.1%

9+ Ks

1.8%

10+ Ks

0.5%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	27.5%	21.1%	25.2%	94.7
Changeup	14.6%	20%	7%	87.3
Sweeper	13.5%	14.5%	13.3%	81.8
Sinker	13.1%	21.8%	22.2%	93.2
Cutter	12.5%	25%	12%	89.2
Slider	10.7%	15.4%	12.1%	85.3
Curveball	8.2%	11.9%	19.2%	78.8

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

35.3%

2-Strike Foul%

30.1%

2-Strike Contact%

80.8%

Expected Ks

19.2

K Luck

-1.2

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	29	31%	65.5%
1-2	27	40.7%	59.3%
2-2	18	27.8%	72.2%
3-2 (full)	5	20%	80%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Sweeper	Sinker	Cutter	Slider	Curveball
Pete Crow-ArmstrongL	28.3%	25.4%	18.4% vs R: 17.8%	16.3% vs R: 15.7%	25.6% vs R: 30.8%	25.8% vs R: 28%	19.4% vs R: 14.8%	15.6% vs R: 14.7%	27.4% vs R: 30%
Seiya SuzukiR	18.5%	26.8%	15.5% vs R: 17.1%	14.3% vs R: 15.4%	27.7% vs R: 27.6%	23.1% vs R: 20.7%	20.5% vs R: 20%	15.9% vs R: 16%	20.8% vs R: 25.6%
Michael BuschL	22.3%	23.5%	16.3% vs R: 17.1%	30.5% vs R: 29%	11.3% vs R: 15.2%	19.3% vs R: 13%	16.2% vs R: 20.7%	23.5% vs R: 24.6%	23.9% vs R: 22.2%
Alex BregmanR	13.8%	15.9%	10.7% vs R: 12.3%	10.8% vs R: 8.6%	14.6% vs R: 14.3%	8.9% vs R: 9%	6.5% vs R: 8.3%	19.1% vs R: 19.8%	23.4% vs R: 17.8%
Ian HappS	33.8%	29.3%	24.7% vs R: 23.6%	23.8% vs R: 22.2%	29.4% vs R: 31%	22.2% vs R: 19%	31.2% vs R: 28%	18.8% vs R: 16.2%	25% vs R: 25%
Nico HoernerR	10.1%	8.3%	7.6% vs R: 8.2%	12.7% vs R: 2.7%	5.7% vs R: 4.8%	8.3% vs R: 6.8%	11.5% vs R: 9.5%	14.7% vs R: 17.7%	8.3% vs R: 10.3%
Pedro RamírezS	11.4%	19.5%	20.5% vs R: 20%	14.7% vs R: 21.7%	18.2% vs R: 25%	22.2% vs R: 25%	0% vs R: 0%	16.7% vs R: 14.3%	17.4% vs R: 19%
Michael ConfortoL	12.5%	28.9%	23.9% vs R: 23.9%	20.4% vs R: 20.4%	23.8% vs R: 20%	11.1% vs R: 11.5%	16.7% vs R: 18.2%	17.2% vs R: 18.5%	28% vs R: 28%
Miguel AmayaR	19.1%	29%	16.5% vs R: 13.8%	34.4% vs R: 38.9%	21.6% vs R: 23.5%	14.7% vs R: 11.1%	13.3% vs R: 14.3%	31.1% vs R: 31%	22.2% vs R: 14.3%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Sweeper	Sinker	Cutter	Slider	Curveball
Pete Crow-ArmstrongL	20.7% vs R: 21.5%	26.5% vs R: 26.8%	27.9% vs R: 30%	13.2% vs R: 17.9%	29% vs R: 23.2%	30% vs R: 24.2%	32.9% vs R: 34.8%
Seiya SuzukiR	15% vs R: 18.2%	32.9% vs R: 41.4%	31.6% vs R: 34.2%	10.7% vs R: 10.8%	31.1% vs R: 34%	28.1% vs R: 30.4%	25% vs R: 25%
Michael BuschL	12.5% vs R: 13.7%	44.8% vs R: 44.8%	26.3% vs R: 34.2%	13.4% vs R: 17.2%	14% vs R: 15.1%	42.3% vs R: 40.2%	37.2% vs R: 38.9%
Alex BregmanR	6.8% vs R: 9.5%	23% vs R: 16.7%	24.4% vs R: 25.7%	3.6% vs R: 3.6%	16.9% vs R: 20%	30.4% vs R: 32.1%	26.5% vs R: 24.1%
Ian HappS	25.9% vs R: 28.8%	36.8% vs R: 30.5%	28.6% vs R: 27.3%	11.8% vs R: 16.1%	18.2% vs R: 22.5%	30.2% vs R: 28.4%	41.7% vs R: 38.9%
Nico HoernerR	6.3% vs R: 6.5%	20.4% vs R: 17%	11% vs R: 12.1%	3.7% vs R: 2.4%	14.1% vs R: 11.1%	24.2% vs R: 25.9%	9.8% vs R: 10.7%
Pedro RamírezS	17.7% vs R: 18.1%	16.7% vs R: 17.9%	15.4% vs R: 21.1%	11.6% vs R: 11.8%	12% vs R: 15.8%	12.1% vs R: 11.5%	56.5% vs R: 55%
Michael ConfortoL	17.3% vs R: 17.4%	37.8% vs R: 37.8%	33.3% vs R: 25%	14.9% vs R: 14%	14.3% vs R: 15.2%	23.1% vs R: 22.9%	44% vs R: 44%
Miguel AmayaR	17.1% vs R: 18.4%	41.5% vs R: 43.5%	31.1% vs R: 34.1%	16.9% vs R: 18.4%	16.7% vs R: 18.5%	36.8% vs R: 35.1%	16.7% vs R: 0%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Pete Crow-Armstrong	2	0	0%	.000
Seiya Suzuki	2	0	0%	.500
Michael Busch	2	1	50%	.500
Ian Happ	2	1	50%	.000
Nico Hoerner	2	0	0%	.000
Michael Conforto	2	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Pete Crow-Armstrong	30.6%	29.4%	22.8%	79.6%
Seiya Suzuki	21.3%	16.3%	10.3%	84.1%
Michael Busch	25.5%	22.9%	28.6%	70.2%
Alex Bregman	24.1%	27.4%	8.9%	87.4%
Ian Happ	24.1%	30.7%	26.2%	81.2%
Nico Hoerner	35.8%	45.4%	12.2%	85.3%
Pedro Ramírez	33.3%	30.7%	13.5%	86.6%
Michael Conforto	29.6%	28.8%	13%	82%
Miguel Amaya	33.3%	38.2%	N/A	63.6%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-24	San Diego Padres	3.6	4
2026-07-29	Philadelphia Phillies	4.4	3
2026-08-04	Atlanta Braves	3.5	5
2026-08-09	Los Angeles Angels	4.4	4
2026-08-15	Cincinnati Reds	1.9	6
2026-08-21	Washington Nationals	2.8	2
2026-08-26	Boston Red Sox	2.2	2
2026-08-31	Washington Nationals	2.2	4
2026-09-05	Chicago Cubs	4.3	5

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 17.8%

!Whiff rate is 23.6%

✓CSW rate is 34.3%

!Opponent K% is 21.8%

!Average pitch count is 71.1

!WHIP is 1.35

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	Chicago Cubs	Home	4.2	5	100	1.41	—	—
2026-08-31	Washington Nationals	Away	4.1	4	69	1.33	7	57.1%
2026-08-26	Boston Red Sox	Home	5.2	2	89	1.33	12	16.7%
2026-08-21	Washington Nationals	Home	4	2	62	1.34	10	20%
2026-08-15	Cincinnati Reds	Away	4.2	6	70	1.32	12	50%
2026-08-09	Los Angeles Angels	Home	4	4	60	1.33	10	40%
2026-08-04	Atlanta Braves	Away	6	5	83	1.36	13	38.5%
2026-07-29	Philadelphia Phillies	Home	5	3	79	1.44	10	30%
2026-07-24	San Diego Padres	Home	3.1	4	57	1.32	9	44.4%
2026-07-21	Houston Astros	Away	2	2	24	1.37	4	50%