MLB pitcher strikeout

Shota Imanaga

@ Miami Marlins2026-09-04FanDuelLHP

Projection

5.3

Ensemble: 4.9

Market line

5.5

FanDuel

Model edge

No qualifying edge

30% (3/10)· 3U streak

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Recommendation

No recommendation

Confidence

88/100

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Pitcher K%

27.4%

Whiff%

30%

CSW%

27.8%

WHIP

1.1

Avg IP

5.3

Avg pitches

Last 5 avg Ks

5.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

24.2%

Team chase

31.8%

Recent chase

31.9%

Recent contact

75.3%

Recent K% (7d)

23.8%

Opp K% vs RHP

21.4%

Opp K% vs LHP

26.4%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

5.5

FanDuel

Model projection

5.3

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Ks

5.2

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 3U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

5.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 5.5Model 5.3

Sep 4

@ MIA

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 30

vs CIN

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 23

@ SEA

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 17

vs CWS

OVER

Strikeouts

+4.5

Aug 11

@ WSH

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

15.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

15.4

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Outs

15.7

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.2

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 3U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

15.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 15.5Model 15.4

Sep 4

@ MIA

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 30

vs CIN

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 23

@ SEA

UNDER

Outs

-9.5

Aug 17

vs CWS

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Aug 11

@ WSH

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Miami Marlins

No prior starts found against Miami Marlins.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	5.5	+120	-154	-0.2	+0.2	—
Pinnacle	5.5	+123	-165	-0.2	+0.2	—
DraftKings	5.5	+115	-146	-0.2	+0.2	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

82.5%

5+ Ks

65.8%

6+ Ks

45.6%Line

7+ Ks

28.3%

8+ Ks

14.8%

9+ Ks

5.8%

10+ Ks

2.2%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	41.4%	18.8%	18.1%	91.4
Splitter	30.6%	40.5%	22.5%	82.3
Sweeper	16.4%	17.2%	8.8%	80.5
Sinker	4.8%	20.6%	33.3%	89.9
Slider	4.1%	31%	6.7%	86.5
Curveball	2.7%	0%	0%	74.6

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

52.7%

2-Strike Foul%

25.6%

2-Strike Contact%

67.9%

Expected Ks

K Luck

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	18	55.6%	44.4%
1-2	37	51.4%	45.9%
2-2	26	50%	46.2%
3-2 (full)	12	25%	75%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Splitter	Sweeper	Sinker	Slider	Curveball
Heriberto HernándezR	21.7%	29.8%	20.3% vs L: 11.9%	50%	23.1% vs L: 23.5%	23.6% vs L: 33.3%	25.7% vs L: 22.2%	26.5% vs L: 29.4%
Otto LopezR	13.4%	12.9%	10.5% vs L: 11.1%	25.9%	9.5% vs L: 0%	13% vs L: 6.7%	11.5% vs L: 5.3%	25% vs L: 25%
Griffin ConineL	32.6%	30.9%	25.8% vs L: 20%	38.5%	40% vs L: 35.7%	8.3% vs L: 0%	34.9% vs L: 53.8%	23.5%
Javier SanojaR	12.2%	6.3%	4.8% vs L: 8.7%	0%	16.3% vs L: 44.4%	2.3% vs L: 0%	15.7% vs L: 20%	15.4% vs L: 15.4%
Agustín RamírezR	23.3%	23.6%	26.9% vs L: 28.1%	18.2%	8.7% vs L: 12.5%	20% vs L: 0%	8.1% vs L: 9.1%	18.8% vs L: 33.3%
Esteury RuizR	33%	30.2%	22.6% vs L: 21.6%	44.4%	18.2% vs L: 16.7%	21.9% vs L: 22.2%	35.3% vs L: 35%	5.6% vs L: 8.3%
Deyvison De Los SantosR	—	—	—	—	—	—	25%	—
Jared SernaR	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Brian NavarretoR	38.7%	26.3%	10% vs L: 8.3%	—	12.5%	0% vs L: 0%	50% vs L: 40%	30% vs L: 30%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Splitter	Sweeper	Sinker	Slider	Curveball
Heriberto HernándezR	25.3% vs L: 13.5%	55.6%	31.2% vs L: 17.4%	20% vs L: 25.8%	40.4% vs L: 46.4%	32.4% vs L: 35%
Otto LopezR	9.3% vs L: 15.2%	30.8%	18.9% vs L: 15.4%	3% vs L: 2.8%	24.6% vs L: 27.3%	29.3% vs L: 33.3%
Griffin ConineL	29.6% vs L: 20%	42.1%	51.5% vs L: 64.3%	20.4% vs L: 17.9%	46.5% vs L: 60%	32%
Javier SanojaR	7.6% vs L: 10.5%	18.2%	20.3% vs L: 37.5%	5.4% vs L: 6.8%	16.4% vs L: 16%	11.1% vs L: 9.1%
Agustín RamírezR	19.3% vs L: 18.6%	23.1%	33.3% vs L: 28.6%	17% vs L: 9.1%	30.9% vs L: 38.5%	38.9% vs L: 50%
Esteury RuizR	25.2% vs L: 30.9%	55.6%	33.3% vs L: 36.4%	17.6% vs L: 22.2%	41.5% vs L: 45.2%	16.7% vs L: 20%
Deyvison De Los SantosR	—	—	—	—	28.6%	—
Jared SernaR	—	—	—	—	—	—
Brian NavarretoR	10.7% vs L: 15%	—	30%	14.3% vs L: 14.3%	33.3% vs L: 20%	40% vs L: 40%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Otto Lopez	5	1	20%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Heriberto Hernández	24.4%	22%	18.9%	74.5%
Otto Lopez	29.2%	28.6%	17%	81.4%
Griffin Conine	31.6%	35.1%	35%	63.2%
Javier Sanoja	36.8%	33.3%	6%	90.8%
Agustín Ramírez	32.5%	35.6%	25%	78.7%
Esteury Ruiz	32.6%	33.3%	40%	64.8%
Deyvison De Los Santos	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jared Serna	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Brian Navarreto	35.5%	35.3%	46.7%	73.8%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-10	Cincinnati Reds	5.5	5
2026-07-19	Minnesota Twins	4.8	4
2026-07-25	Pittsburgh Pirates	4.9	4
2026-07-31	New York Yankees	4.9	6
2026-08-05	Los Angeles Dodgers	4.6	6
2026-08-11	Washington Nationals	4.8	5
2026-08-17	Chicago White Sox	5.2	10
2026-08-23	Seattle Mariners	6.5	4
2026-08-30	Cincinnati Reds	6.7	4
2026-09-04	Miami Marlins	5.27	4

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 27.4%

✓Whiff rate is 30%

!CSW rate is 27.8%

!Opponent K% is 20.3%

!Average pitch count is 89

✓WHIP is 1.1

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-04	Miami Marlins	Away	5	4	76	1.12	—	—
2026-08-30	Cincinnati Reds	Home	5	4	85	1.14	12	33.3%
2026-08-23	Seattle Mariners	Away	2	4	72	1.12	9	44.4%
2026-08-17	Chicago White Sox	Home	6	10	96	1.09	12	83.3%
2026-08-11	Washington Nationals	Away	4.2	5	86	1.1	11	45.5%
2026-08-05	Los Angeles Dodgers	Home	5	6	89	1.09	11	54.5%
2026-07-31	New York Yankees	Home	6.2	6	101	1.07	14	42.9%
2026-07-25	Pittsburgh Pirates	Away	6	4	84	1.1	11	36.4%
2026-07-19	Minnesota Twins	Home	7	4	99	1.11	13	30.8%
2026-07-10	Cincinnati Reds	Away	5	5	102	1.12	15	33.3%