MLB pitcher strikeout

Anthony Molina

@ New York Mets2026-09-05DraftKingsRHP

Projection

3.9

Ensemble: 4.1

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.4

Over 3.5

33% (2/6)· 2O streak

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Recommendation

Over 3.5

DraftKings

Confidence

B+

78/100

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Pitcher K%

18%

Whiff%

27.2%

CSW%

28%

WHIP

1.05

Avg IP

2.9

Avg pitches

Last 5 avg Ks

3.0

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

17.1%

Team chase

29.9%

Recent chase

33.2%

Recent contact

74.7%

Recent K% (7d)

19.2%

Opp K% vs RHP

21.5%

Opp K% vs LHP

23.4%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model projection

3.9

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

33%

2 of 6 overs

Average Ks

2.5

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.0

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

33% (2/6)· 2O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 3.9

Sep 5

@ NYM

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 31

@ ATL

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 25

vs CIN

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Jun 16

vs SF

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Jun 14

@ NYM

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

14.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

13.5

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

33%

2 of 6 overs

Average Outs

9.7

Selected starts

Average margin

-4.8

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

33% (2/6)· 2O streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

14.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 14.5Model 13.5

Sep 5

@ NYM

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 31

@ ATL

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 25

vs CIN

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Jun 16

vs SF

UNDER

Outs

-8.5

Jun 14

@ NYM

UNDER

Outs

-11.5

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Analytics

Career vs. New York Mets

No prior starts found against New York Mets.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	3.5	-105	-121	+0.4	-0.4	Best Over
FanDuel	3.5	+112	-142	+0.4	-0.4	—
Pinnacle	3.5	+114	-151	+0.4	-0.4	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

54.7%Line

5+ Ks

32.3%

6+ Ks

15.4%

7+ Ks

6.4%

8+ Ks

1.9%

9+ Ks

0.5%

10+ Ks

0.1%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	49.2%	18.2%	19.2%	96.2
Changeup	25.4%	23.8%	8.3%	87.3
Curveball	10.6%	23.1%	11.1%	84.5
Slider	9.5%	42.9%	25%	88.1

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

32.1%

2-Strike Foul%

17.9%

2-Strike Contact%

77.8%

Expected Ks

K Luck

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	14	42.9%	57.1%
1-2	14	14.3%	85.7%
2-2	11	27.3%	72.7%
3-2 (full)	7	28.6%	71.4%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Curveball	Slider
Francisco LindorS	14.5%	21.1%	11.8% vs R: 12.3%	10% vs R: 9.6%	17.5% vs R: 17.6%	17.2% vs R: 21.6%
Juan SotoL	14.5%	13%	15.6% vs R: 12.3%	6.1% vs R: 5.3%	18.8% vs R: 25%	14.3% vs R: 11.8%
Bo BichetteR	16.8%	18.5%	15.5% vs R: 13.6%	16.4% vs R: 21.9%	8.2% vs R: 6.5%	15.6% vs R: 16.2%
Carson BengeL	26.5%	19.9%	16.5% vs R: 13.9%	16.4% vs R: 18%	17.2% vs R: 13%	16% vs R: 17.5%
Jared YoungL	22.8%	18.9%	15.1% vs R: 12.5%	14.6% vs R: 14.7%	25% vs R: 26.1%	29.4% vs R: 31.6%
Marcus SemienR	20.5%	20.8%	17.2% vs R: 16.7%	15.2% vs R: 19.4%	21.4% vs R: 21.4%	30.4% vs R: 28.4%
A.J. EwingL	27%	26.2%	13.7% vs R: 14.2%	29.8% vs R: 26.5%	25% vs R: 21.9%	23.5% vs R: 27.5%
Francisco AlvarezR	36.6%	28.3%	28.8% vs R: 29.7%	16.3% vs R: 9.5%	15% vs R: 0%	20% vs R: 16.7%
Brett BatyL	33.8%	26.6%	22.4% vs R: 20.2%	14.9% vs R: 13.6%	23.3% vs R: 25.9%	25.4% vs R: 22%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Curveball	Slider
Francisco LindorS	17.2% vs R: 17.8%	21.3% vs R: 22.5%	31% vs R: 28.6%	30% vs R: 29.2%
Juan SotoL	20% vs R: 16.3%	11.6% vs R: 10%	27% vs R: 31%	25% vs R: 18.9%
Bo BichetteR	11.6% vs R: 11.8%	20.2% vs R: 23.8%	19% vs R: 26.7%	25.6% vs R: 27.6%
Carson BengeL	16% vs R: 15.1%	25.2% vs R: 26.9%	25.8% vs R: 25%	18.9% vs R: 16.4%
Jared YoungL	19.7% vs R: 18.6%	23.2% vs R: 23.4%	20% vs R: 20.7%	37.7% vs R: 39.6%
Marcus SemienR	19.7% vs R: 22.3%	32.3% vs R: 30%	29.3% vs R: 33.3%	35.1% vs R: 34.9%
A.J. EwingL	13.3% vs R: 12.6%	33.3% vs R: 32.3%	34.3% vs R: 26.9%	32.7% vs R: 28.3%
Francisco AlvarezR	31.8% vs R: 30.5%	35.9% vs R: 15.4%	25.9% vs R: 25%	42.6% vs R: 45.6%
Brett BatyL	22% vs R: 21.2%	32% vs R: 31.2%	38.9% vs R: 40%	35.6% vs R: 28.3%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Bo Bichette	4	0	0%	.500
Marcus Semien	2	2	100%	.000
Francisco Lindor	1	0	0%	1.000
Juan Soto	1	0	0%	1.000
Carson Benge	1	0	0%	1.000
Jared Young	1	0	0%	.000
A.J. Ewing	1	1	100%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Francisco Lindor	29.9%	37.3%	22.9%	71.3%
Juan Soto	18.7%	28.2%	13%	76.3%
Bo Bichette	43.2%	44%	15%	86.1%
Carson Benge	29.3%	31.9%	23.9%	73.9%
Jared Young	28.4%	34.4%	25%	82.4%
Marcus Semien	28%	29.7%	11.9%	76.5%
A.J. Ewing	26.2%	27.6%	28.6%	79.5%
Francisco Alvarez	32.7%	34.6%	45.8%	60.5%
Brett Baty	32.5%	30.8%	30%	65.9%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-08-31	Atlanta Braves	0	6
2026-09-05	New York Mets	3.85	6

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 18%

!Whiff rate is 27.2%

!CSW rate is 28%

!Opponent K% is 21.7%

!Average pitch count is 43

✓WHIP is 1.05

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	New York Mets	Away	5	6	87	0.88	—	—
2026-08-31	Atlanta Braves	Away	5	6	75	1.05	13	46.2%
2026-08-25	Cincinnati Reds	Home	4.1	1	52	0.96	7	14.3%
2026-06-16	San Francisco Giants	Home	2	0	33	1.4	5	0%
2026-06-14	New York Mets	Away	1	2	29	1.33	3	66.7%
2026-05-01	Colorado Rockies	Away	2	0	26	0.5	—	—