MLB pitcher strikeout

Matt Wilkinson

@ New York Mets2026-09-04DraftKingsLHP

Projection

3.9

Ensemble: 3.7

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.4

Over 3.5

25% (1/4)· 1U streak

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this pitcher's projection, market line, and model edge.

Recommendation

Over 3.5

DraftKings

Confidence

B+

73/100

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this pitcher's recommendation and confidence grade.

Pitcher K%

12.8%

Whiff%

14.8%

CSW%

23.2%

WHIP

1.01

Avg IP

3.9

Avg pitches

60.3

Last 5 avg Ks

2.0

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

N/A

Team chase

31%

Recent chase

33%

Recent contact

71.9%

Recent K% (7d)

14.6%

Opp K% vs RHP

24.4%

Opp K% vs LHP

22%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see matchup-specific stats.

Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model projection

3.9

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

25%

1 of 4 overs

Average Ks

2.0

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

25% (1/4)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 3.9

Sep 4

@ NYM

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 29

vs ARI

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 23

@ BOS

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 19

@ CLE

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

15.5

FanDuel

Model projection

14.2

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

25%

1 of 4 overs

Average Outs

11.0

Selected starts

Average margin

-4.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

25% (1/4)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

15.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 15.5Model 14.2

Sep 4

@ NYM

UNDER

Outs

-6.5

Aug 29

vs ARI

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Aug 23

@ BOS

UNDER

Outs

-4.5

Aug 19

@ CLE

UNDER

Outs

-9.5

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see projection history vs. results.

Analytics

Career vs. New York Mets

No prior starts found against New York Mets.

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see career history vs. today's opponent.

Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	3.5	-121	-106	+0.4	-0.4	Best Over
FanDuel	3.5	-120	-106	+0.4	-0.4	—

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see sportsbook lines and edges.

Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

56.6%Line

5+ Ks

35.5%

6+ Ks

18.6%

7+ Ks

7.9%

8+ Ks

2.8%

9+ Ks

10+ Ks

0.3%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this pitcher's strikeout ladder.

Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	54.7%	12%	14.3%	90.3
Changeup	24.3%	11.8%	0%	83.6
Slider	15.5%	20%	12.5%	79
Cutter	5.5%	20%	100%	83

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

27.3%

2-Strike Foul%

18.8%

2-Strike Contact%

83.3%

Expected Ks

K Luck

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	7	42.9%	57.1%
1-2	12	33.3%	66.7%
2-2	10	40%	60%
3-2 (full)	10	20%	80%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Slider	Cutter
Francisco LindorS	14.5%	21.1%	11.8% vs L: 10.4%	10% vs L: 11.1%	17.2% vs L: 11.1%	17.1% vs L: 0%
Juan SotoL	14.5%	13%	15.6% vs L: 22.6%	6.1% vs L: 9.1%	14.3% vs L: 18.2%	15.8% vs L: 0%
Bo BichetteR	16.8%	18.5%	15.5% vs L: 21.2%	16.4% vs L: 11.4%	15.6% vs L: 13.6%	4.8% vs L: 0%
Mark VientosR	20%	26.4%	17.9% vs L: 13.9%	23.5% vs L: 19%	29.4% vs L: 31.6%	14.3% vs L: 0%
Carson BengeL	26.5%	19.9%	16.5% vs L: 26%	16.4% vs L: 8.3%	16% vs L: 14.6%	10.5% vs L: 25%
Marcus SemienR	20.5%	20.8%	17.2% vs L: 18.4%	15.2% vs L: 6.7%	30.4% vs L: 38.1%	14.7% vs L: 12.5%
Christopher MorelR	38.9%	31.5%	28.9% vs L: 53.8%	42.9% vs L: 33.3%	25% vs L: 20%	33.3%
Francisco AlvarezR	36.6%	28.3%	28.8% vs L: 26.8%	16.3% vs L: 21.4%	20% vs L: 30%	33.3% vs L: 37.5%
Nick MorabitoR	—	—	—	—	—	—

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see the lineup-vs-arsenal matchup breakdown.

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Slider	Cutter
Francisco LindorS	17.2% vs L: 15.8%	21.3% vs L: 17.9%	30% vs L: 31.2%	26.2% vs L: 21.1%
Juan SotoL	20% vs L: 26.8%	11.6% vs L: 22.2%	25% vs L: 33.3%	20% vs L: 27.3%
Bo BichetteR	11.6% vs L: 11%	20.2% vs L: 17.7%	25.6% vs L: 20%	12.7% vs L: 6.2%
Mark VientosR	25.2% vs L: 16.7%	30% vs L: 21.6%	48.6% vs L: 52.4%	32% vs L: 15.4%
Carson BengeL	16% vs L: 19.7%	25.2% vs L: 9.1%	18.9% vs L: 22%	8.1% vs L: 14.3%
Marcus SemienR	19.7% vs L: 13.1%	32.3% vs L: 36%	35.1% vs L: 35.9%	25.6% vs L: 12.5%
Christopher MorelR	26.4% vs L: 40%	50% vs L: 30%	47.6% vs L: 55.6%	0%
Francisco AlvarezR	31.8% vs L: 34.6%	35.9% vs L: 50%	42.6% vs L: 34.4%	42.9% vs L: 45.5%
Nick MorabitoR	—	—	—	—

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see the lineup-vs-arsenal whiff matchup breakdown.

Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

No head-to-head history found for this lineup.

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Francisco Lindor	29.8%	37.6%	20.8%	72.4%
Juan Soto	19.3%	30.3%	16.7%	71.9%
Bo Bichette	43.1%	41.4%	17.1%	85.5%
Mark Vientos	34.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Carson Benge	29.1%	32%	23.4%	74.2%
Marcus Semien	27.9%	29.8%	9.3%	77.1%
Christopher Morel	N/A	28%	N/A	65.2%
Francisco Alvarez	33%	31.6%	52%	56.8%
Nick Morabito	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see batter-vs-pitcher history and lineup chase rate.

Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-08-19	Cleveland Guardians	0	0
2026-08-23	Boston Red Sox	0	2
2026-08-29	Arizona Diamondbacks	0	4
2026-09-04	New York Mets	3.86	2

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see projection history and model reasoning.

Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 12.8%

!Whiff rate is 14.8%

!CSW rate is 23.2%

!Opponent K% is 21.3%

!Average pitch count is 60.3

✓WHIP is 1.01

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see why this projection was made.

Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-04	New York Mets	Away	3	2	62	1.36	—	—
2026-08-29	Arizona Diamondbacks	Home	6	4	90	1.11	9	44.4%
2026-08-23	Boston Red Sox	Away	3.2	2	66	1.41	11	18.2%
2026-08-19	Cleveland Guardians	Away	2	0	25	0.5	2	0%