MLB pitcher strikeout

Jared Jones

vs Los Angeles Angels2026-09-04DraftKingsRHP

Projection

5.8

Ensemble: 6.0

Market line

6.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.7

Under 6.5

40% (4/10)· 1O streak

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Recommendation

Under 6.5

DraftKings

Confidence

A+

98/100

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Pitcher K%

24%

Whiff%

31%

CSW%

29.8%

WHIP

1.15

Avg IP

4.7

Avg pitches

80.5

Last 5 avg Ks

5.6

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

24.9%

Team chase

34.2%

Recent chase

33.7%

Recent contact

74.8%

Recent K% (7d)

27.8%

Opp K% vs RHP

28.9%

Opp K% vs LHP

25.5%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

6.5

DraftKings

Model projection

5.8

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Ks

5.9

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

40% (4/10)· 1O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

6.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 6.5Model 5.8

Sep 4

vs LAA

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 28

@ STL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 22

@ LAD

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 15

vs BOS

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 9

vs NYM

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

14.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

15.6

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Outs

14.6

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

60% (6/10)· 1O streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

14.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 14.5Model 15.6

Sep 4

vs LAA

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 28

@ STL

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 22

@ LAD

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 15

vs BOS

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 9

vs NYM

UNDER

Outs

-5.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Los Angeles Angels

No prior starts found against Los Angeles Angels.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	6.5	+125	-160	-0.7	+0.7	Best Under
FanDuel	6.5	+122	-156	-0.7	+0.7	—
Pinnacle	6.5	+125	-168	-0.7	+0.7	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

85.6%

5+ Ks

71.3%

6+ Ks

53.4%

7+ Ks

34%Line

8+ Ks

18.2%

9+ Ks

8.7%

10+ Ks

3.6%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	47.3%	19.6%	18.8%	98.2
Slider	34.3%	34.5%	29.7%	89.6
Changeup	11.6%	37.5%	15.8%	92.8
Curveball	6.8%	30%	21.7%	85.7

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

43.1%

2-Strike Foul%

23.8%

2-Strike Contact%

70.5%

Expected Ks

29.6

K Luck

-4.6

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	24	41.7%	54.2%
1-2	28	46.4%	53.6%
2-2	27	48.1%	51.9%
3-2 (full)	20	30%	70%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Changeup	Curveball
Zach NetoR	26.2%	32.4%	17.6% vs R: 21.3%	23.8% vs R: 20.5%	24.4% vs R: 31.3%	35.8% vs R: 41%
Mike TroutR	23.7%	26.4%	14.1% vs R: 15%	28.7% vs R: 31.9%	23.5% vs R: 26.1%	23.8% vs R: 12%
Wade MecklerL	22.9%	20.8%	23.1% vs R: 22.8%	14.3% vs R: 11.1%	28% vs R: 29.2%	31.2% vs R: 38.5%
Vaughn GrissomR	15.3%	19.5%	15.7% vs R: 17.8%	23.8% vs R: 26.2%	14.6% vs R: 26.7%	12.8% vs R: 11.1%
Moisés BallesterosL	23.3%	23.4%	29.2% vs R: 31.3%	12.5% vs R: 8.6%	18.6% vs R: 19%	21.4% vs R: 18.5%
Christian MooreR	24%	37.2%	26.5% vs R: 26.7%	0% vs R: 0%	33.3%	25%
Jose SiriR	35.4%	29.6%	14.3% vs R: 16.1%	40.6% vs R: 38.9%	28.9%	32.3% vs R: 40%
Adam FrazierL	17.6%	32.5%	20% vs R: 21.1%	35% vs R: 42.9%	18.8% vs R: 13.3%	25% vs R: 25%
Oswald PerazaR	28.5%	30.3%	20.5% vs R: 19.3%	28.3% vs R: 25%	31.8% vs R: 42.9%	27.7% vs R: 30.8%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Changeup	Curveball
Zach NetoR	19.4% vs R: 22.1%	38.2% vs R: 38.1%	43.8% vs R: 44.9%	51.4% vs R: 58.7%
Mike TroutR	16.4% vs R: 17.8%	40.6% vs R: 42%	31.9% vs R: 30.2%	30.6% vs R: 26.3%
Wade MecklerL	10.7% vs R: 9.3%	21.9% vs R: 17.6%	31.6% vs R: 30.4%	32% vs R: 35%
Vaughn GrissomR	17.4% vs R: 15%	32.3% vs R: 31.8%	19.3% vs R: 25%	22.2% vs R: 14.8%
Moisés BallesterosL	32.6% vs R: 36%	26.7% vs R: 24%	29.6% vs R: 29%	31.4% vs R: 32.4%
Christian MooreR	26.4% vs R: 18.6%	28.6% vs R: 27.3%	33.3%	33.3%
Jose SiriR	29.6% vs R: 30.4%	51.5% vs R: 56.4%	43.3%	32.5% vs R: 41.7%
Adam FrazierL	16.2% vs R: 18%	48% vs R: 55%	26.1% vs R: 22.7%	40% vs R: 40%
Oswald PerazaR	20.3% vs R: 22.3%	30.8% vs R: 26.8%	37.6% vs R: 41.2%	37% vs R: 40%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Jose Siri	3	2	66.7%	.000
Adam Frazier	2	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Zach Neto	42.9%	39.8%	24.4%	69.1%
Mike Trout	23%	23.1%	24.5%	76.7%
Wade Meckler	22.9%	18.2%	15.4%	78.6%
Vaughn Grissom	36.5%	33.7%	12.8%	83.7%
Moisés Ballesteros	37.9%	42.9%	36.6%	72.3%
Christian Moore	27.8%	26.9%	23.9%	73.9%
Jose Siri	42%	42%	38.2%	67.1%
Adam Frazier	35.1%	N/A	N/A	77.8%
Oswald Peraza	39.4%	43.1%	26.3%	73.8%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-08	Atlanta Braves	3.8	8
2026-07-18	Cleveland Guardians	5.2	9
2026-07-24	Chicago Cubs	5.6	5
2026-07-29	Arizona Diamondbacks	4.5	5
2026-08-04	Milwaukee Brewers	4.6	4
2026-08-09	New York Mets	6.2	3
2026-08-15	Boston Red Sox	5	7
2026-08-22	Los Angeles Dodgers	5.8	5
2026-09-04	Los Angeles Angels	5.77	9

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 24%

✓Whiff rate is 31%

!CSW rate is 29.8%

✓Opponent K% is 26.2%

!Average pitch count is 80.5

✓WHIP is 1.15

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-04	Los Angeles Angels	Home	5	7	79	1.25	—	—
2026-08-28	St. Louis Cardinals	Away	4.2	6	86	1.28	14	42.9%
2026-08-22	Los Angeles Dodgers	Away	4	5	87	1.25	12	41.7%
2026-08-15	Boston Red Sox	Home	5	7	85	1.2	11	63.6%
2026-08-09	New York Mets	Home	3	3	69	1.2	9	33.3%
2026-08-04	Milwaukee Brewers	Away	4	4	83	1.11	12	33.3%
2026-07-29	Arizona Diamondbacks	Home	6	5	77	1.02	7	71.4%
2026-07-24	Chicago Cubs	Home	6	5	83	1.02	10	50%
2026-07-18	Cleveland Guardians	Away	5	9	74	1.1	14	64.3%
2026-07-08	Atlanta Braves	Home	6	8	77	1.14	12	66.7%