MLB pitcher strikeout

Randy Dobnak

vs Toronto Blue Jays2026-09-06DraftKingsRHP

Projection

4.0

Ensemble: 3.9

Market line

2.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+1.5

Over 2.5

80% (8/10)· 5O streak

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Recommendation

Over 2.5

DraftKings

Confidence

B+

70/100

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Pitcher K%

20.7%

Whiff%

22%

CSW%

26%

WHIP

1.32

Avg IP

5.5

Avg pitches

91.1

Last 5 avg Ks

5.0

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

17.8%

Team chase

31.9%

Recent chase

29.6%

Recent contact

83.4%

Recent K% (7d)

19.1%

Opp K% vs RHP

16.5%

Opp K% vs LHP

20%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

2.5

DraftKings

Model projection

4.0

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

80%

8 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.8

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

80% (8/10)· 5O streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

2.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 2.5Model 4.0

Sep 1

vs MIA

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Aug 26

@ TOR

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 20

vs ATH

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 15

@ LAA

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Aug 9

vs CHC

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

15.5

DraftKings

Model projection

17.6

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Outs

16.1

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

50% (5/10)· 2O streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

15.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 15.5Model 17.6

Sep 1

vs MIA

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Aug 26

@ TOR

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Aug 20

vs ATH

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

Aug 15

@ LAA

OVER

Outs

+1.5

Aug 9

vs CHC

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Toronto Blue Jays

No prior starts found against Toronto Blue Jays.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	2.5	+112	-143	+1.5	-1.5	Best Over

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

63.3%

5+ Ks

41.7%

6+ Ks

24%

7+ Ks

11.1%

8+ Ks

4.8%

9+ Ks

1.9%

10+ Ks

0.7%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sinker	39.4%	6.1%	10.1%	91.5
Sweeper	25.3%	30.4%	16.9%	82.3
Changeup	21.3%	28.1%	17.5%	84.8
4-Seam Fastball	9.1%	11.1%	12.5%	92.2
Slider	4.8%	29.6%	11.5%	83.6

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

41%

2-Strike Foul%

22.1%

2-Strike Contact%

74.4%

Expected Ks

K Luck

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	23	60.9%	39.1%
1-2	34	44.1%	55.9%
2-2	28	25%	75%
3-2 (full)	17	29.4%	70.6%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sinker	Sweeper	Changeup	4-Seam Fastball	Slider
Brett BatemanL	21.1%	20.3%	14.3% vs R: 10%	25% vs R: 50%	25% vs R: 0%	34.8% vs R: 35.3%	18.8% vs R: 16.7%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.R	13%	12.2%	9.6% vs R: 8.5%	16.1% vs R: 15.2%	9.8% vs R: 12.9%	10.3% vs R: 9.4%	17.1% vs R: 17.7%
Alejandro KirkR	18.8%	9%	10.3% vs R: 10.6%	17.1% vs R: 10.3%	4.3% vs R: 0%	11.3% vs R: 2.1%	9.3% vs R: 6.2%
George SpringerR	17.9%	18.5%	13.4% vs R: 11.1%	14% vs R: 12.7%	22% vs R: 25%	10.8% vs R: 12.5%	26% vs R: 29.2%
Kazuma OkamotoR	26.5%	31.4%	22.3% vs R: 23%	18.3% vs R: 19.6%	20.5% vs R: 18.4%	18.1% vs R: 18.8%	26.8% vs R: 25.8%
Ernie ClementR	10.1%	9.6%	7.1% vs R: 5.7%	18.8% vs R: 18.4%	19.4% vs R: 25%	9.5% vs R: 5.7%	21.2% vs R: 26%
Andrés GiménezL	16%	20.7%	17% vs R: 21.1%	18.6% vs R: 16.7%	17.9% vs R: 12.2%	18.1% vs R: 16.9%	17.6% vs R: 25%
Charles McAdooR	28.9%	18.4%	20.8% vs R: 13.3%	28.6% vs R: 20%	15.4%	28.6% vs R: 37.5%	20%
Myles StrawR	17.4%	8.5%	3.7% vs R: 2.9%	10.7% vs R: 5.6%	14.3% vs R: 20%	10.7% vs R: 4.3%	21.2% vs R: 14.3%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sinker	Sweeper	Changeup	4-Seam Fastball	Slider
Brett BatemanL	14.7% vs R: 15.4%	14.3% vs R: 0%	16.7% vs R: 11.1%	12.5% vs R: 8.3%	20% vs R: 20%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.R	6.1% vs R: 6.4%	17.5% vs R: 16.4%	28.3% vs R: 19%	14.1% vs R: 16.7%	23.5% vs R: 25.7%
Alejandro KirkR	7.6% vs R: 6.3%	17.9% vs R: 16.1%	12.1% vs R: 0%	20.8% vs R: 18.6%	13.8% vs R: 13.6%
George SpringerR	11% vs R: 11%	24.8% vs R: 24.1%	32.4% vs R: 34.4%	17.2% vs R: 19.1%	34.2% vs R: 38.6%
Kazuma OkamotoR	22.8% vs R: 22.8%	32.7% vs R: 32%	34.7% vs R: 31%	25.6% vs R: 27.6%	42.4% vs R: 46.2%
Ernie ClementR	2% vs R: 2.5%	28.7% vs R: 26.7%	23.8% vs R: 34.4%	10.9% vs R: 10.7%	23.8% vs R: 25.7%
Andrés GiménezL	14.5% vs R: 16.9%	30.7% vs R: 29.8%	27.9% vs R: 22.9%	20.9% vs R: 21.4%	27.3% vs R: 32.8%
Charles McAdooR	5.7% vs R: 8.3%	46.7% vs R: 45.5%	31.6%	16.9% vs R: 18.2%	36.4%
Myles StrawR	3.8% vs R: 2.7%	25% vs R: 16.7%	11.6% vs R: 10%	7.4% vs R: 4.9%	21.7% vs R: 15.8%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Andrés Giménez	4	0	0%	.000
Brett Bateman	3	1	33.3%	.333
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	3	0	0%	.333
Alejandro Kirk	3	0	0%	.000
George Springer	3	1	33.3%	.333
Kazuma Okamoto	3	0	0%	.000
Ernie Clement	2	1	50%	.000
Myles Straw	1	0	0%	1.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Brett Bateman	27.8%	20.2%	21.3%	82.4%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	29.3%	26.4%	6.4%	89.7%
Alejandro Kirk	27.3%	25%	16.2%	87.3%
George Springer	23.9%	32.3%	15.4%	73.4%
Kazuma Okamoto	30.5%	21.1%	25%	74.3%
Ernie Clement	45.4%	49.4%	14.3%	90.6%
Andrés Giménez	45%	40.7%	20%	81.5%
Charles McAdoo	32.6%	31.2%	N/A	83.3%
Myles Straw	25.4%	20.3%	12.9%	88%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-18	San Diego Padres	1.5	3
2026-07-23	Detroit Tigers	3.6	3
2026-07-29	Minnesota Twins	3.5	4
2026-08-04	Minnesota Twins	3.7	1
2026-08-09	Chicago Cubs	4.4	4
2026-08-15	Los Angeles Angels	1.9	6
2026-08-20	Athletics	2	4
2026-08-26	Toronto Blue Jays	2.6	5
2026-09-01	Miami Marlins	4.82	6
2026-09-06	Toronto Blue Jays	3.95	—

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 20.7%

!Whiff rate is 22%

!CSW rate is 26%

!Opponent K% is 17.3%

✓Average pitch count is 91.1

!WHIP is 1.32

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-01	Miami Marlins	Home	6	6	87	1.39	11	54.5%
2026-08-26	Toronto Blue Jays	Away	6	5	92	1.37	10	50%
2026-08-20	Athletics	Home	4	4	96	1.4	14	28.6%
2026-08-15	Los Angeles Angels	Away	5.2	6	93	1.3	12	50%
2026-08-09	Chicago Cubs	Home	5	4	94	1.33	14	28.6%
2026-08-04	Minnesota Twins	Home	5	1	90	1.19	13	7.7%
2026-07-29	Minnesota Twins	Away	7	4	101	1.19	11	36.4%
2026-07-23	Detroit Tigers	Away	5	3	76	1.37	12	25%
2026-07-18	San Diego Padres	Home	4.1	3	96	1.5	15	20%
2026-07-08	New York Mets	Away	5.2	2	95	1.34	10	20%