MLB pitcher strikeout

Braxton Ashcraft

vs Los Angeles Angels2026-09-05DraftKingsRHP

Projection

5.3

Ensemble: 5.7

Market line

6.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+1.2

Under 6.5

20% (2/10)· 1O streak

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Recommendation

Under 6.5

DraftKings

Confidence

A+

98/100

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Pitcher K%

20%

Whiff%

22.2%

CSW%

32.8%

WHIP

1.12

Avg IP

5.9

Avg pitches

80.6

Last 5 avg Ks

5.6

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

24.2%

Team chase

32.7%

Recent chase

30.7%

Recent contact

72.9%

Recent K% (7d)

26.1%

Opp K% vs RHP

27.4%

Opp K% vs LHP

24.6%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

6.5

DraftKings

Model projection

5.3

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

20%

2 of 10 overs

Average Ks

5.1

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.4

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

20% (2/10)· 1O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

6.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 6.5Model 5.3

Sep 5

vs LAA

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 30

@ STL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Aug 24

@ SD

UNDER

Strikeouts

-4.5

Aug 18

vs DET

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Aug 13

@ MIA

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

16.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

16.5

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Outs

17.1

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 2U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

16.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 16.5Model 16.5

Sep 5

vs LAA

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Aug 30

@ STL

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Aug 24

@ SD

OVER

Outs

+1.5

Aug 18

vs DET

OVER

Outs

+7.5

Aug 13

@ MIA

OVER

Outs

+10.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Los Angeles Angels

No prior starts found against Los Angeles Angels.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	5.5	-160	+124	-0.2	+0.2	—
DraftKings	6.5	+126	-161	-1.2	+1.2	Best Under
Pinnacle	6.5	+135	-181	-1.2	+1.2	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

78.6%

5+ Ks

60.5%

6+ Ks

40.7%

7+ Ks

24%Line

8+ Ks

12.3%

9+ Ks

10+ Ks

1.6%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	29.3%	12.2%	17.6%	97.5
Curveball	28%	35.9%	24.7%	84.9
Slider	21.1%	23%	17.4%	91.6
Sinker	17.8%	13.4%	19.6%	97.3
Splitter	3.8%	11.8%	16.7%	91.9

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

39.3%

2-Strike Foul%

21.2%

2-Strike Contact%

79.5%

Expected Ks

26.7

K Luck

-2.7

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	30	46.7%	53.3%
1-2	37	35.1%	64.9%
2-2	18	22.2%	77.8%
3-2 (full)	8	25%	75%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Curveball	Slider	Sinker	Splitter
Zach NetoR	26.2%	32.8%	17.4% vs R: 21%	35.8% vs R: 41%	24.3% vs R: 21.5%	24.3% vs R: 22.7%	22.5% vs R: 22.5%
Mike TroutR	23.5%	26.5%	14.3% vs R: 15.3%	23.8% vs R: 12%	28.7% vs R: 31.9%	14.9% vs R: 16.3%	22.7% vs R: 22.7%
Wade MecklerL	22.9%	20.8%	23.1% vs R: 22.8%	31.2% vs R: 38.5%	14.3% vs R: 11.1%	30.4% vs R: 33.3%	19% vs R: 19%
Vaughn GrissomR	15.2%	19.2%	15% vs R: 16.9%	12.5% vs R: 11.1%	22.7% vs R: 24.4%	10.7% vs R: 11.1%	19% vs R: 19%
Moisés BallesterosL	23.3%	23.1%	28% vs R: 29.8%	21.4% vs R: 18.5%	12.1% vs R: 8.1%	21.6% vs R: 21.4%	0% vs R: 0%
Christian MooreR	24%	34.8%	25.5% vs R: 25%	25%	0% vs R: 0%	25% vs R: 25%	—
Josh LoweL	33.3%	27.1%	17.6% vs R: 17.4%	12% vs R: 9.1%	24.6% vs R: 23.3%	22.7% vs R: 28.1%	10% vs R: 10%
Denzer GuzmanR	30%	24.1%	24% vs R: 21.4%	6.5% vs R: 14.3%	17.1% vs R: 20.7%	21.2% vs R: 20%	50% vs R: 50%
Adam FrazierL	17.6%	32.5%	20% vs R: 21.1%	25% vs R: 25%	35% vs R: 42.9%	31.2% vs R: 30.8%	37.5% vs R: 37.5%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Curveball	Slider	Sinker	Splitter
Zach NetoR	19.3% vs R: 21.9%	51.4% vs R: 58.7%	38.7% vs R: 38.7%	18% vs R: 17.3%	44.7% vs R: 44.4%
Mike TroutR	16.3% vs R: 17.7%	30.6% vs R: 26.3%	41.7% vs R: 43.4%	9.8% vs R: 10.9%	30.8% vs R: 30.8%
Wade MecklerL	10.7% vs R: 9.3%	32% vs R: 35%	21.9% vs R: 17.6%	14% vs R: 11.4%	31.4% vs R: 31.4%
Vaughn GrissomR	17.1% vs R: 14.7%	21.8% vs R: 14.8%	32% vs R: 31.4%	12.4% vs R: 12.6%	36.8% vs R: 36.8%
Moisés BallesterosL	31.6% vs R: 34.8%	31.4% vs R: 32.4%	28.1% vs R: 26.4%	13.7% vs R: 17.9%	8.7% vs R: 8.7%
Christian MooreR	25.3% vs R: 17.4%	33.3%	31.6% vs R: 31.2%	22.2% vs R: 36.4%	—
Josh LoweL	29.2% vs R: 29.5%	28.6% vs R: 27.3%	40.7% vs R: 37.9%	9.1% vs R: 13.6%	31.7% vs R: 31.7%
Denzer GuzmanR	23.3% vs R: 17.7%	23.8% vs R: 20%	25% vs R: 27%	11.4% vs R: 6.6%	27.3% vs R: 22.2%
Adam FrazierL	16.2% vs R: 18%	40% vs R: 40%	48% vs R: 55%	8.6% vs R: 4.8%	54.5% vs R: 54.5%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Moisés Ballesteros	7	2	28.6%	.286

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Zach Neto	42.7%	40.5%	31.8%	67.7%
Mike Trout	23%	22.4%	24.5%	77.5%
Wade Meckler	23%	19%	13.3%	79.2%
Vaughn Grissom	36.4%	34.1%	10.6%	83.5%
Moisés Ballesteros	37.6%	42%	37.5%	70.8%
Christian Moore	27.4%	25.5%	20%	75.9%
Josh Lowe	36.1%	26.4%	20.7%	72.9%
Denzer Guzman	33.8%	34.5%	33.3%	68.8%
Adam Frazier	33.9%	31.8%	N/A	60%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-11	Milwaukee Brewers	7.6	6
2026-07-20	New York Yankees	7	2
2026-07-26	Chicago Cubs	6.6	5
2026-08-01	Cincinnati Reds	6.4	5
2026-08-06	Milwaukee Brewers	5.4	5
2026-08-13	Miami Marlins	6.5	10
2026-08-18	Detroit Tigers	6.7	4
2026-08-24	San Diego Padres	6.3	2
2026-08-30	St. Louis Cardinals	6	3
2026-09-05	Los Angeles Angels	5.27	9

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 20%

!Whiff rate is 22.2%

✓CSW rate is 32.8%

✓Opponent K% is 25.6%

!Average pitch count is 80.6

✓WHIP is 1.12

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	Los Angeles Angels	Home	5	9	67	1.09	—	—
2026-08-30	St. Louis Cardinals	Away	5	3	71	1.08	11	27.3%
2026-08-24	San Diego Padres	Away	6	2	91	1.07	13	15.4%
2026-08-18	Detroit Tigers	Home	8	4	80	1.08	10	40%
2026-08-13	Miami Marlins	Away	9	10	85	1.1	15	66.7%
2026-08-06	Milwaukee Brewers	Away	5	5	82	1.15	12	41.7%
2026-08-01	Cincinnati Reds	Away	5	5	69	1.16	9	55.6%
2026-07-26	Chicago Cubs	Home	6	5	93	1.19	13	38.5%
2026-07-20	New York Yankees	Away	3	2	74	1.17	8	25%
2026-07-11	Milwaukee Brewers	Home	5	6	98	1.11	16	37.5%